Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeez , are you on shakys ignore list? Dont let him see that post ..:-)

getting really fed up of those who give Shaky grief for nuances in thursday snow line.....if you zoom in on the UKMO, GFS, GFS(P) and ECM charts and look closely, it's patently obvious that the snowline moved from Shaky's front garden, to old Mrs Giles bungalow across the road! ?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 12.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

5 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

????

You must be joking right? A cold winter easterly may always be in the pipeline if we get a decent Scandi high, but putting hopes in brexit? Now that really is chasing unicorns... saying its good is like saying we will get an easterly in 12 hours time when all the models show zonal SW'lies.

Anyhow the 06z swingometers are mixed but represent an improvement on the 00z set (highlighting why runs in isolation shouldn't be focused on but instead more persistent patterns).

It's still highly uncertain how early next week will pan out, at this early stage I would say an anticyclonic pattern is more likely with the high to our far NE starting to make its presence felt. This is hugely uncertain though as highlighted by the swingometers. I wouldn't mind another slider with P2 ? .

For later on the picture is also highly uncertain, just about anything could happen with a large variety of options on the 06z GFS ens. P5 gets a great cold spell going later on.

The global temperature anomalies tell quite a story too, almost everywhere at 60N below average! If only that serious Eurasian cold could move west heh heh...

Overall I'd say any chance of a cold spell around 48:52, there certainly isn't a will of the weather gods for a mild spell at the moment. Lets hope we get a strong and stable high pressure to our north!

3

Talking of swingometers. I voted to remain and I'm now happy we're leaving. The Air Temperature earlier maxed out at 6c when Brexit talk was getting heated in parliament, it's now 1.9c and falling quickly, as is the snow. The only thing in life is that there are no certainties except death and taxes. As to the longer-term, 48:52 is about right. 1.7c now, told you the Temperature is plummeting rather quickly. Back to the here and now and those important votes, will it snow or will it rain Thursday IMBY?

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I think a lot of folks on here was to quick to jump of easterly I’m not saying this done but the trends are there..

The para doesn't quite make it but it's an attempt.

Until this Scandi signal fades, I will still be here.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a thought regarding the failed easterly of late, and the lack of cold coming out of Europe, could it be to do with brexit perhaps!! I means let's face it Europe won't give us anything right now ?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here's the precipitation from 12z UKMO

6am Thursday to 12:00 Saturday

ezgif.com-gif-maker.thumb.gif.919ce8eedde494ce5b83af8ca1c17ef5.gif

Well EURO4 taking front further up Ireland already but will it keep going.....

Awaits 18z

19013112_2912.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Just a thought regarding the failed easterly of late, and the lack of cold coming out of Europe, could it be to do with brexit perhaps!! I means let's face it Europe won't give us anything right now ?

The cold shoulder, perhaps.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Can I have my towel back, please? ?

Yesterday I have to say I was a bit frustrated by the model output longer term, will post in more detail later, but suffice to say I have found the longer range model output today and other signals much more positive today for significant cold in February.  

Meanwhile Thursday looks good for midlands and south, If ECM follows the other models then I think the GFS solution can be given a very low probability.  Which won't suit everyone, but that's for the regional threads.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm playing "Total Eclipse of The Heart" by Bonnie Tyler every day to help the February be as cold as 1983...hey it worked in July as we nearly equalled 1983 for the hottest ever July! 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM 12z even further south with the main core of precip, Also weaker than 00z/06z with the front than on previous runs. Probably 1-2 inches this run in CS England, SE, Wales and the far south Midlands. North of that and returns rapidly fade away. Heavy snow limited to southern most counties

I'd say its even almost identical to that UKMO by the way.

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Guys leave shaky alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 

Anyway ECM about to roll.. Following GFSP trend???

25 exclamation marks in one sentence.....You're not related are you?

back to serious matter, how many meters has the snow line moved on the 12z ECM?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM 12z even further south with the main core of precip, Also weaker than 00z/06z with the front than on previous runs. Probably 1-2 inches this run in CS England, SE, Wales and the far south Midlands. North of that and returns rapidly fade away. Heavy snow limited to southern most counties

I'd say its even almost identical to that UKMO by the way.

2-8cm majority of Midlands, 1-3cm SE and 5-15cm South Wales they said on BBC

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM 12z even further south with the main core of precip, Also weaker than 00z/06z with the front than on previous runs. Probably 1-2 inches this run in CS England, SE, Wales and the far south Midlands. North of that and returns rapidly fade away. Heavy snow limited to southern most counties

I'd say its even almost identical to that UKMO by the way.

BBC has 1-3cm for London and southeast. ??

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Talking of swingometers. I voted to remain and I'm now happy we're leaving. The Air Temperature earlier maxed out at 6c when Brexit talk was getting heated in parliament, it's now 1.9c and falling quickly, as is the snow. The only thing in life is that there are no certainties except death and taxes. As to the longer-term, 48:52 is about right. 1.7c now, told you the Temperature is plummeting rather quickly. Back to the here and now and those important votes, will it snow or will it rain Thursday IMBY?

Well in many areas it has rained today! Are you sure you want to crash out of the winter with no snow? As we get closer the forecast becomes no clearer and a majority cannot be passed through at the moment.

image.thumb.png.1179642db2bd0f469efdedbd80609b0f.png

Further on into February things still look unclear.

image.thumb.png.afd2e84f2990cb13d4f9d2e5ff767b3e.png

We may still be waiting for snow by March 31st!!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite a difference between 12z GFS Op and PARA with Friday afternoon maxes across SE England and East Anglia seems to be because PARA has snow cover and op doesn’t!

Op

340C3BDA-C57C-4F18-9B2F-8CE8E841836E.thumb.png.fd106629bab0c543891dfe8932fc6edd.png1D8B1165-BC0C-4009-BDD2-D546985EA62D.thumb.png.7cc4359641597125461758b47c7ff446.png

PARA

81479A46-4FF1-4683-9D55-2305E96964D8.thumb.png.7918c2657f71447b40b14e4d4289311e.pngF43A9563-3987-43E6-968F-8233C38504DF.thumb.png.81d8f9e028cdc59f0da52abdda671376.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, beerandkebab said:

25 exclamation marks in one sentence.....You're not related are you?

back to serious matter, how many meters has the snow line moved on the 12z ECM?

Aw you counted. Yes long lost brothers. He has half of an exclamation mark shaped necklace, I have the other.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...