Cold hunt - models and chat

[A.J 17,771]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeez , are you on shakys ignore list? Dont let him see that post ..:-)

getting really fed up of those who give Shaky grief for nuances in thursday snow line.....if you zoom in on the UKMO, GFS, GFS(P) and ECM charts and look closely, it's patently obvious that the snowline moved from Shaky's front garden, to old Mrs Giles bungalow across the road! ?

[General Cluster 59,679]

Shaky's front garden: 

[I remember Atlantic 252 6,769]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeez , are you on shakys ignore list? Dont let him see that post ..:-)

horrible if UKMO is right, shaky great though, he'll see it though, if you're not on his ignore list

[Snowman. 3,478]

The hmming continues with the Para.

[gottolovethisweather 7,197]

5 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

????

You must be joking right? A cold winter easterly may always be in the pipeline if we get a decent Scandi high, but putting hopes in brexit? Now that really is chasing unicorns... saying its good is like saying we will get an easterly in 12 hours time when all the models show zonal SW'lies.

Anyhow the 06z swingometers are mixed but represent an improvement on the 00z set (highlighting why runs in isolation shouldn't be focused on but instead more persistent patterns).

It's still highly uncertain how early next week will pan out, at this early stage I would say an anticyclonic pattern is more likely with the high to our far NE starting to make its presence felt. This is hugely uncertain though as highlighted by the swingometers. I wouldn't mind another slider with P2 ? .

For later on the picture is also highly uncertain, just about anything could happen with a large variety of options on the 06z GFS ens. P5 gets a great cold spell going later on.

The global temperature anomalies tell quite a story too, almost everywhere at 60N below average! If only that serious Eurasian cold could move west heh heh...

Overall I'd say any chance of a cold spell around 48:52, there certainly isn't a will of the weather gods for a mild spell at the moment. Lets hope we get a strong and stable high pressure to our north!

3

Talking of swingometers. I voted to remain and I'm now happy we're leaving. The Air Temperature earlier maxed out at 6c when Brexit talk was getting heated in parliament, it's now 1.9c and falling quickly, as is the snow. The only thing in life is that there are no certainties except death and taxes. As to the longer-term, 48:52 is about right. 1.7c now, told you the Temperature is plummeting rather quickly. Back to the here and now and those important votes, will it snow or will it rain Thursday IMBY?

Edited January 29, 2019 by gottolovethisweather

[Jackski4 809]

Guys leave shaky alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 

Anyway ECM about to roll.. Following GFSP trend???

[Pembroke Dangler 460]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The hmming continues with the Para.

Looks like a trigger low to me there’s still life in this cold hunt yet ?

[Scandinavian High. 2,530]

12 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Hmmm. Looking a bit easterly I must say.

 

I think a lot of folks on here was to quick to jump of easterly I’m not saying this done but the trends are there..

[Snowman. 3,478]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I think a lot of folks on here was to quick to jump of easterly I’m not saying this done but the trends are there..

The para doesn't quite make it but it's an attempt.

Until this Scandi signal fades, I will still be here.

[MATTWOLVES 20,656]

Just a thought regarding the failed easterly of late, and the lack of cold coming out of Europe, could it be to do with brexit perhaps!! I means let's face it Europe won't give us anything right now ?

[winterof79 6,751]

34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here's the precipitation from 12z UKMO

6am Thursday to 12:00 Saturday

Well EURO4 taking front further up Ireland already but will it keep going.....

Awaits 18z

[Selliso 177]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Just a thought regarding the failed easterly of late, and the lack of cold coming out of Europe, could it be to do with brexit perhaps!! I means let's face it Europe won't give us anything right now ?

The cold shoulder, perhaps.

[Mike Poole 26,256]

Can I have my towel back, please? ?

Yesterday I have to say I was a bit frustrated by the model output longer term, will post in more detail later, but suffice to say I have found the longer range model output today and other signals much more positive today for significant cold in February.  

Meanwhile Thursday looks good for midlands and south, If ECM follows the other models then I think the GFS solution can be given a very low probability.  Which won't suit everyone, but that's for the regional threads.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Mike Poole

[NeilN 435]

I'm playing "Total Eclipse of The Heart" by Bonnie Tyler every day to help the February be as cold as 1983...hey it worked in July as we nearly equalled 1983 for the hottest ever July! 

[chris55 5,275]

12 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Looks like a trigger low to me there’s still life in this cold hunt yet ?

Initially i read that wrong......Old.....

[bluearmy 42,470]

delete

Edited January 29, 2019 by bluearmy

[londonblizzard 115]

delete

Edited January 29, 2019 by londonblizzard

[kold weather 10,095]

ECM 12z even further south with the main core of precip, Also weaker than 00z/06z with the front than on previous runs. Probably 1-2 inches this run in CS England, SE, Wales and the far south Midlands. North of that and returns rapidly fade away. Heavy snow limited to southern most counties

I'd say its even almost identical to that UKMO by the way.

[A.J 17,771]

24 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Guys leave shaky alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 

Anyway ECM about to roll.. Following GFSP trend???

25 exclamation marks in one sentence.....You're not related are you?

back to serious matter, how many meters has the snow line moved on the 12z ECM?

[Jayfromcardiff 1,821]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM 12z even further south with the main core of precip, Also weaker than 00z/06z with the front than on previous runs. Probably 1-2 inches this run in CS England, SE, Wales and the far south Midlands. North of that and returns rapidly fade away. Heavy snow limited to southern most counties

I'd say its even almost identical to that UKMO by the way.

2-8cm majority of Midlands, 1-3cm SE and 5-15cm South Wales they said on BBC

[Mr Brown 31]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

ECM 12z even further south with the main core of precip, Also weaker than 00z/06z with the front than on previous runs. Probably 1-2 inches this run in CS England, SE, Wales and the far south Midlands. North of that and returns rapidly fade away. Heavy snow limited to southern most counties

I'd say its even almost identical to that UKMO by the way.

BBC has 1-3cm for London and southeast. ??

[Quicksilver1989 5,667]

19 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Talking of swingometers. I voted to remain and I'm now happy we're leaving. The Air Temperature earlier maxed out at 6c when Brexit talk was getting heated in parliament, it's now 1.9c and falling quickly, as is the snow. The only thing in life is that there are no certainties except death and taxes. As to the longer-term, 48:52 is about right. 1.7c now, told you the Temperature is plummeting rather quickly. Back to the here and now and those important votes, will it snow or will it rain Thursday IMBY?

Well in many areas it has rained today! Are you sure you want to crash out of the winter with no snow? As we get closer the forecast becomes no clearer and a majority cannot be passed through at the moment.

Further on into February things still look unclear.

We may still be waiting for snow by March 31st!!

[Nick F 22,067]

Quite a difference between 12z GFS Op and PARA with Friday afternoon maxes across SE England and East Anglia seems to be because PARA has snow cover and op doesn’t!

Op

PARA

[SMU 80,650]

^^^ At 69 / 72 theres a few purple specs in the SE indicating + > 10cm

Although Southern Ireland gets hit hard again...

[Jackski4 809]

1 minute ago, beerandkebab said:

25 exclamation marks in one sentence.....You're not related are you?

back to serious matter, how many meters has the snow line moved on the 12z ECM?

Aw you counted. Yes long lost brothers. He has half of an exclamation mark shaped necklace, I have the other.