Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Is this the most talked about low in net weather history?its bordering on ocd!!!!??

No, it's definitely corrected north of ocd.

I think sometimes people forget that the speed of the arriving depressions will vary from run to run, so a straight comparison of say T60 on the 12z with T66 on the 6z doesn't always make sense, or at least can be misleading.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think that could be a stonker?

gfs-2-186.png?12
It's certainly worth watching and it remains as snow (high res charts may alter that somewhat mind)

The GFS has delayed the breakdown to past the weekend (by breakdown I mean mild incursion)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good trend from the GFS within the 120-144hr time period...perilously close to unleashing the beast. If we can squeeze a wedge of high pressure between GL and Scandi the link-up would surely be in the offering. UKMO not so good but room for improvement. As long as that Siberian high lurks in the NE we will always be in with a shout. One to watch over the coming days.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Altostratus said:

Good trend from the GFS within the 120-144hr time period...perilously close to unleashing the beast. If we can squeeze a wedge of high pressure between GL and Scandi the link-up would surely be in the offering. UKMO not so good but room for improvement. As long as that Siberian high lurks in the NE we will always be in with a shout. One to watch over the coming days.

Siberian heights are pesky though, they very rarely actually come over and help us by migrating, can be a real nuiscance if it doesn’t move west

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

UK looking cold and with slack pressure dominating through much of next week on 12z GFS, disrupting Atlantic system moving through by mid-week giving a little snow. The only sustained mild Atlantic incursion in the NW - which may see effects of Atlantic LP warm sector bringing in some rain by Thursday.

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - noticed the ridge being thrown up further West, more neutrally tilted rather than positively tilted like it was a few days ago but unfortunately i have also noticed the worst trend of all, the 30 dayer much more muted about proper cold (GLOSEA based?)

image.png

Hasn’t seen that feb .... suspect the latest 46 clusters are less than enthusiastic about a reversal affecting nw Europe favourably for us and they have adjusted their wording accordingly 

if glosea has backed off a bit then expect that wording to change again ove reached the course of the week - the further outlook was still mentioning the small chance of an easterly by the end of week 2. I wonder if they have simply decided that being out on a limb re very cold isn’t a good place to be 

anyway, models seem keen to extend the cold into next week with the mild (less cold) pushed back for the time being 

  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Going forward, GFS 12z synopticly is one to watch, the MET longer range forecast keeps banging on about "north easterly winds" or "Easterly winds".

The GFS 144 shows that isn't impossible! Developing UK ridge....Arctic high moving west.....

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok so in terms of Thursday just quickly. GFS now isolated in its fat LP idea (though it has made subtle moves today towards an evolution that of the other models).

GFSP, UKMO, ICON, ARPEGE, Euro4, HIRLAM and GEM all elongate the low to some extent, with the GFSP being the least, and the ARPEGE probably being the most. Still that's a

We await the 12z ECM....but providing that doesn't throw a total curveball, the GFS is somewhat isloted in its outcome. On the ground that makes the most amount of difference for the southern counties (in particular the SE) and perhaps the far northern parts of England.

Still time for changes and the GFS, whilst on its own, still could be right in how it evolves the pattern, but its looking less likely each run another model jumps off.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  so where do we go from here now the background signals didn’t work out as many hoped it would what do you think of the ECMWF 46 outlook from today 

Current extended EC outlook would signify a very average February to me. A bit of everything in the mix - but no strong signal for extreme weather of any type. 

  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Cheeky Scandi high developing day 10 on 12z GFS, deep cold air creeping SW into Germany as a result

GFSOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.b2dbcd8c426e17d677c59723b438b304.pngGFSOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.20c23d913a3dfa9532dab2ecf3a1c0e4.png

 

Now, will EC halt its progressive Atlantic stance of recent runs? Will find out in 2 hours!

Any chance the cold air will advect westwards, in time for the August bank holiday, Nick??

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Has no snow falling across the North Midlands but some of largest accumulations are there. Not sure how that works.

UKMO top charts, MOGREPS average chart.

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z UKMO barely gets the frontal system on Thursday into the Midlands, and when it does its already weakening fairly quickly as this point. Main heavy precipitation reserved for southern counties. I think though the UKMO is probably underdoing the northward motion of the front now, in much the same way as ICON did last night.

Edited by kold weather
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Clearly all the seasonal models have been a bust- there is absolutely no doubting that-

Canadian PV has destroyed any hope of northern blocking winter 2018/2019, Feb may deliver but its looking unlikely IMHO, FWIW i hope my net weather friends in the midlands/wales and the SE get some good action thurs..

Its not a moan BTW, its just the reality, iv'e kind of given up hope if i'm honest- yet again a north westerly provides about an inch of slush at 200 m in the north west..as useful as a barbers shop on the steps of the guillotine ..

I do long for an easterly!

 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...