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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

This is about the Northern extent for Thursdays snow from the ECM 6z run

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Rain across the SW turning to snow North and East of say Bristol

Very similar to the GFSP as well fwiw, though the GFSP introduces milder air into the far SE quicker which causes a rain-snow-rain type set-up for those closer to the coast.

Gotta think one of these groups are going to shift towards the other on the 12z suite, be it the GFS/GEM or ECM/UKMO/ICON. To have such a large difference at 48hrs isn't doing much for the confidence level!

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7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very similar to the GFSP as well fwiw, though the GFSP introduces milder air into the far SE quicker which causes a rain-snow-rain type set-up for those closer to the coast.

Gotta think one of these groups are going to shift towards the other on the 12z suite, be it the GFS/GEM or ECM/UKMO/ICON. To have such a large difference at 48hrs isn't doing much for the confidence level!

I'm personally favouring UKMO/GFSP/ECM blend - ICON/APEGE broadly in line too with the Northern extent, only real odd ball is the GFS which continues to send the front way way North of every other model, though we saw it do the same thing consistently with todays front too. 

Far SE likely to see a rain > snow > rain event as you say, I think East Anglia/North London the sweet spot for our area, Essex/North Kent possibly holding onto the snow though perhaps wetter down to lower ground especially towards the back edge.

EDIT: Thought I was in the regional thread, apologies for the IMBY

Edited by Daniel Smith
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just looking at the latest fax for 6am added to recent noises about the front slowing down later this evening - i wonder if the development of that little warm front wave at the base of the cold front by tomorrow morning indicates that interference from the French runner will just stall its progress somewhat  ……..

Edited by bluearmy
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Thanks Vikos - your English is a lot better than my German, that's for sure....!

The door to height rises over Scandinavia is not entirely closed in the medium term, and a +NAO with blocking to the NE of the UK can deliver slider scenarios. Wouldnt rule that out.

Didnt take me long to come back to the models - so much for taking a break. Had a migraine yesterday which always has the added impact of lowering my mood and apologies to any who were irritated by my glumness in that context. I'm less glum today and hunting that bit harder for colder options again. EPS trend out towards Feb 10 today is indeed signalling rising pressure over Scandy but with a trough still anchored to the west. If heights to the NE can continue to build then the likely mobility of next week can be pulled back towards a cold signal for the second half of the month still. I'm not going to put my house on it given the track record of the season so far - but it would tie in with the MJO phase next week within a trop pattern that is sluggish in terms of momentum at high lats and laid open to meridional forcing.. 

We will see. Meanwhile rain here for the SW today and I've seen the MetO 2 - 5 day outlook given to councils for their gritting plans. Snow not a feature - so very much on the hunt for some positive NWP developments. Fingers crossed the MetO text doesnt change in the next hour...............

  so where do we go from here now the background signals didn’t work out as many hoped it would what do you think of the ECMWF 46 outlook from today 

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40 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  so where do we go from here now the background signals didn’t work out as many hoped it would what do you think of the ECMWF 46 outlook from today 

It looks blocked  - just missing the euro troughing but if we get heights across to our north then we may continue to squeeze winter out of February ..... I would wait for Thursdays run anyway before making many observations 

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon goes even further north again!!!!pivots arounf yorkshire northwest england!!

? hope the others follow.

Apologies, thought this was the regional thread. To add slightly less IMBY to this, this just shows how much uncertainty there is regardig Thursday at present. Anywhere from the Southern tips  of England to Southern Scotland could cop a massive dumping from this.

Edited by Deep Snow please
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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon goes even further north again!!!!pivots arounf yorkshire northwest england!!

It does kind of remind me of the 06z ECM. The good news is the front is more active so the north has more to gain compared to some other runs which are much weaker.

I'd say the ICON is probably the best countrywide run yet. Heavy snow for a lot of the south (though the SW probably not). and the front gets far enough north to include pretty much all of England as well.

Also ICON throws in that front again into the NE of England like the 06z run.

Edited by kold weather
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Although I mentioned about the longer term GEFS 6z mean not showing any signs of a siberian deep freeze..looking through the GEFS 6z there are hints of something arctic / siberian...So..there is potential for a marked change to severe wintry weather next month..fingers crossed!!!?:cold:

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Edited by Frosty.
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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It does kind of remind me of the 06z ECM. The good news is the front is more active so the north has more to gain compared to some other runs which are much weaker.

I'd say the ICON is probably the best countrywide run yet. Heavy snow for a lot of the south (though the SW probably not). and the front gets far enough north to include pretty much all of England as well.

Also ICON throws in that front again into the NE of England like the 06z run.

Oh yess again cant wait for your snow depth update!

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Although I mentioned about the longer term GEFS 6z mean not showing any signs of a siberian deep freeze..looking through the GEFS 6z there are hints of something arctic / siberian...So..there is potential for a marked change to severe wintry weather next month..fingers crossed!!!?:cold:

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After this winter so far it's very hard to believe anything the models are saying beyond t48 to be honest....we'll see I suppose.

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Did a quick mockup of possible solutions re: Thursdays system

NEW.thumb.png.dfe7f8b823f322d5e6041214a7ae818c.png

Based on a blend of all models including the GFS ensembles. UKMO/ECM/ blend suggests a more central risk (scenario 1) whilst ICON/ARPEGE suggests a more Southerly central risk (scenario 2) which leaves GFS + GEFS further North as per scenario 3, though we know how the GFS likes to massively over-do Northerly extent.

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31 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Talking of ICON, a touch closer to the GFS (just a touch) in terms of the way it is evolving the front. Far south is more marginal but that is balanced out by a more intense precipitation.

Would prove a very interesting rush hour for the SE though for sure if it was right!

 

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35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It looks blocked  - just missing the euro troughing but if we get heights across to our north then we may continue to squeeze winter out of February ..... I would wait for Thursdays run anyway before making many observations 

 thanks for ur reply Ba  do you think we are likely to get the euro  trough  signals back again y

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And even the boys from Brazil seem to be singing from the same hym sheet, it ain't over till the fat lady sings, but she deffo clearing her throat I hear some of you say!! ?

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Edited by Mattwolves
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