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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 hours ago, Vikos said:

Hi Catacol,

thank you for your reply. On those last GFS runs I see a shiffting of tropospherical cold from Canada towards Russia-Siberia and some strong signals for HLB/Nordic Highs wich would lead to a strong -NAO and can induce some very cold easterly spells in mid February

Some may call them FI charts, but for me it is just a logical development from other global signals. I know, by now, we can't really predict where strong nordern Hights will develop and how they will affect us in Mid-EU, but I am absoluty convinced, that they will develop somehow, and that's the gamble game and the thrilling part of synoptical modell interpretation..

regards from Germany (we suffer too from that bs-winter)

(sry for my bad english 🙂 )

anim_tmf0.gif

 

gfsnh-0-384.png

Thanks Vikos - your English is a lot better than my German, that's for sure....!

The door to height rises over Scandinavia is not entirely closed in the medium term, and a +NAO with blocking to the NE of the UK can deliver slider scenarios. Wouldnt rule that out.

Didnt take me long to come back to the models - so much for taking a break. Had a migraine yesterday which always has the added impact of lowering my mood and apologies to any who were irritated by my glumness in that context. I'm less glum today and hunting that bit harder for colder options again. EPS trend out towards Feb 10 today is indeed signalling rising pressure over Scandy but with a trough still anchored to the west. If heights to the NE can continue to build then the likely mobility of next week can be pulled back towards a cold signal for the second half of the month still. I'm not going to put my house on it given the track record of the season so far - but it would tie in with the MJO phase next week within a trop pattern that is sluggish in terms of momentum at high lats and laid open to meridional forcing.. 

We will see. Meanwhile rain here for the SW today and I've seen the MetO 2 - 5 day outlook given to councils for their gritting plans. Snow not a feature - so very much on the hunt for some positive NWP developments. Fingers crossed the MetO text doesnt change in the next hour...............

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22 minutes ago, kold weather said:

06z ECM broadly the same again as the 00z run, I'd say the biggest change is a slight change in the orientation of the front, not that dissimilar to the GFSp but the LP is a touch further south.

Snow line is a touch north (especially in the west) compared to the 06z though like previous runs, there isn't a whole lot left of it by that point.

Main areas of snow again SE/E Wales and W.Midlands. Also quite a lot of snow for CS England, though this would be very marginal indeed and less secure than the 00z run due to that slight orientation difference. I will need to see what the higher resolution version shows with regards to dew points, etc.

S.ROI also hit hard again!

Yes, 6z ECM had more in way of liquid PPN in S/SE at least initially as the front pushes in. The angle of approach makes a big difference.

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25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

06z ECM broadly the same again as the 00z run, I'd say the biggest change is a slight change in the orientation of the front, not that dissimilar to the GFSp but the LP is a touch further south.

Snow line is a touch north (especially in the west) compared to the 06z though like previous runs, there isn't a whole lot left of it by that point.

Main areas of snow again SE/E Wales and W.Midlands. Also quite a lot of snow for CS England, though this would be very marginal indeed and less secure than the 00z run due to that slight orientation difference. I will need to see what the higher resolution version shows with regards to dew points, etc.

S.ROI also hit hard again!

 

This was the 0z prediction, is this where you said it's slightly further north?

image.thumb.png.4e44c3b53048e2c7ec035db08f45d870.png

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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

The global temperature anomalies tell quite a story too, almost everywhere at 60N below average! If only that serious Eurasian cold could move west heh heh...

image.thumb.png.40a489a71fcc94940f69a1e5bedc542d.png

Overall I'd say any chance of a cold spell around 48:52, there certainly isn't a will of the weather gods for a mild spell at the moment. Lets hope we get a strong and stable high pressure to our north!

What does it mean for the jet stream with much of the eastern seaboard to be mild? Good news for us I hope.

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Just looking at the GEFS 6z mean and it's similar to the 00z but a little colder in the mid / longer term..ergo, the pattern flattens out next week with more of an atlantic influence and temperatures recover closer to average and there's no sign of anything siberian out to mid february. 

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25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Meanwhile rain here for the SW today and I've seen the MetO 2 - 5 day outlook given to councils for their gritting plans. Snow not a feature

That is interesting. I guess you are talking about something other than the Contingency Planners forecasts that are publicly available on the Met website - I don't see a 2-5 day option on there. How would a local council get hold of that information (not sure our Parish Council has it!).

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Just now, Zesyph said:

What does it mean for the jet stream with much of the eastern seaboard to be mild? Good news for us I hope.

Not too much for the time being, it will probably mean some low pressure systems zipping across North America. I'd expect some deep low pressure systems moving up to NE Canada. I'd be looking for these to stall to the west of Greenland and than the mild air over eastern US to move to the Greenland region.

When looking at past spells with a large Scandi high though, a warm eastern US does seem to be a theme...

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FV3 at Day 16...the cusp of something special?🎢

image.thumb.png.6b954372ee36fc54f8cc9ccb3426cd0e.png

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13 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

That is interesting. I guess you are talking about something other than the Contingency Planners forecasts that are publicly available on the Met website - I don't see a 2-5 day option on there. How would a local council get hold of that information (not sure our Parish Council has it!).

Insider info.... 🙂

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17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just looking at the GEFS 6z mean and it's similar to the 00z but a little colder in the mid / longer term..ergo, the pattern flattens out next week with more of an atlantic influence and temperatures recover closer to average and there's no sign of anything siberian out to mid february. 

Yes it's all rather depressing really.

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

So summing up this mornings data, we have hlb devoloping, westerly winds incoming, a bit of snow, no snow, red warning snow, from a foot of snow to a cm of slush! Its gonna be north, its gonna be south, its gonna be west, its gonna be east. Tell you what guys if all of this comes off, it's gonna be one hell of a weather event, 🤔

Innit just! Everyone looking at the same data and everyone coming up with different ideas. Think i may have picked the wrong hobby here.

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1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

Yes it's all rather depressing really.

With a name like yours no wonder your depressed 🤣🤣

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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:
16 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

That is interesting. I guess you are talking about something other than the Contingency Planners forecasts that are publicly available on the Met website - I don't see a 2-5 day option on there. How would a local council get hold of that information (not sure our Parish Council has it!).

Insider info.... 🙂

I guess that it is distributed to County Council (Highways) departments and not lower tiers of government - which is all good for main highways, but not so good for local routes that smaller local councils have to keep open! Off topic I know, but important nonetheless...

... back on topic - is no-one able to post a chart or two demonstrating what the 'pivot' issue is regarding likely snowfall totals?

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

With a name like yours no wonder your depressed 🤣🤣

Picked it randomly when I joined over 15 years ago! 

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1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

Picked it randomly when I joined over 15 years ago! 

Lol . 15 years that’s a long time . You must of seen quite a few cold spells vanish into thin air ? 

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Things looking really interesting for Thursday as the next system pushes ne, how far north and east is the question! But it looks at this stage some quite serious conditions could devolop away from the sw, central southern Wales, the Midlands, got a feeling this system ain't gonna be in any hurry to move, 10-20cm for favoured locations easily on the cards 

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UKMO Model

6pm Thursday

2115242380_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_18_14.thumb.png.edf8cbaf342dbcc546d22e0e89ae0512.png

Midnight Thursday/Friday

809838251_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_18_40.thumb.png.fd1049974bb36b54077d9256a8c45a7f.png

Probability of accumulations between Thurs 12pm and Fri 12pm

1429341198_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_19_57.thumb.png.46e79071d1e02c532ed93b10478c4663.png

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

UKMO Model

6pm Thursday

2115242380_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_18_14.thumb.png.edf8cbaf342dbcc546d22e0e89ae0512.png

Midnight Thursday/Friday

809838251_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_18_40.thumb.png.fd1049974bb36b54077d9256a8c45a7f.png

Probability of accumulations between Thurs 12pm and Fri 12pm

1429341198_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_19_57.thumb.png.46e79071d1e02c532ed93b10478c4663.png

i see a hand

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2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

i see a hand

Yes it was just on the Met Office live video.

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6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

UKMO Model

6pm Thursday

2115242380_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_18_14.thumb.png.edf8cbaf342dbcc546d22e0e89ae0512.png

Midnight Thursday/Friday

809838251_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_18_40.thumb.png.fd1049974bb36b54077d9256a8c45a7f.png

Probability of accumulations between Thurs 12pm and Fri 12pm

1429341198_Screenshot2019-01-29at13_19_57.thumb.png.46e79071d1e02c532ed93b10478c4663.png

Has no snow falling across the North Midlands but some of largest accumulations are there. Not sure how that works.

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1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Yes it was just on the Met Office live video.

Looks like Sth.Wales could get hammered!😁

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48 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

You must be joking right? A cold winter easterly may always be in the pipeline if we get a decent Scandi high, but putting hopes in brexit? Now that really is chasing unicorns... saying its good is like saying we will get an easterly in 12 hours time when all the models show zonal SW'lies.

 

To be fair, they both lead to food shortages and empty supermarket shelves, but it's a collapse in the PV we are looking for, not GDP. :oldsmile: There are enough GEFS members with height rises to our north and a large cold pool to our east at  D10 to keep things interesting. A few here:

gensnh-1-1-240.png

gensnh-5-1-240.png

gensnh-10-1-240.png

 

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Has no snow falling across the North Midlands but some of largest accumulations are there. Not sure how that works.

The probability map may not have been based on the UKMO model - ECM was further North re: snow line

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