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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Just now, warrenb said:

Oh now GFS more interesting now, has it finally picked up the downwelling.

Just seen that... Mid term outlook could be a lot more positive come tonight 

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Hmmm. Much better angle. Undercut plausible but maybe a few more runs needed in that direction?

gfsnh-0-162_kbl6.png

 

Edited by ukpaul

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sharper ridge trying to get up towards Iceland at 132 - could be a good run the 6z.

yes keeps the run going,know sign of anything mild

Edited by swfc

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Hopefully the GFS is picking up on a trend for that ridge being thrown up to Scandi...interesting...and ties in with the Met outlook.

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ECM ensembles strongly back the OP in terms of general placements on the frontal zone. There is some subtle differences that allow some runs to get further north, or to make things too marginal in the south, but generally 80-85% back the ECM OP pretty closely.

To have such a difference not only in the OPs but in the ensembles at this range is pretty impressive, even if the differences are actually quite small in detail!

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

thought the mid range didn't belong in here ???.silly post make your mind up

What???? - any range belongs in here, as long as its not mild ramps deliberately designed to wind cold fans up.

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06Z not at all bad. Backs up Those Who Cannot Be Named...?:cold:

image.thumb.png.0976b7cc641c58f50f14900eb1dca240.png

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GFS 6z - days 7/8 very interesting...

 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What???? - any range belongs in here, as long as its not mild ramps deliberately designed to wind cold fans up.

sorry wrong person haha.edited

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Some pretty big changes at day Day 7-9 on the 6z!

Comparing 192 6z to 198 00z.

gfs-0-192.thumb.png.763f4c9f47cd62409b6b20ee09544312.pnggfs-0-198.thumb.png.2c6bdf9c16b1301d5836413a87dbedf4.png

Edited by bradythemole

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Hopefully this is the new trend all the models pick up on tonight ..

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If that low at 200+ on gfs 6z  slides south east guess what should land!!!!!! Full of eastern promise

Edited by swfc

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06z ARPEGE still looks a little far south overall I feel, though its pretty close to the 00z UKMO it has to be said.

HIRLAM out to 48hrs has a similar LP presentation is similar to ECM/UKMO/ICON.

 

Edited by kold weather

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4 minutes ago, swfc said:

If that low at 200+ on gfs 6z  slides south east guess what should land!!!!!!

Depends how far south east. Anything from an easterly to the mother of all blizzards.

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Don't believe the 06z...usually throws up different trends, again I wonder what it's verification is like compared to the 0z and 12z...it does look a better trend though and one we'd like to see but I have my doubts.

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Just now, TEITS said:

Plenty more drama mate. I know some may call it hopecasting but I remain convinced we could see a sudden shift from a mild, flat, zonal outlook to a cold/Very cold E,ly. All of which developing at +144 to +168 and not +300plus. I spotted this a couple of days ago and believe it remains possible.

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

Agree.  I think the ECM op is wrong and far too flat . And Dave we have the joy or not of some trigger shortwave drama ! 😎

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1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Plenty more drama mate. I know some may call it hopecasting but I remain convinced we could see a sudden shift from a mild, flat, zonal outlook to a cold/Very cold E,ly. All of which developing at +144 to +168 and not +300plus. I spotted this a couple of days ago and believe it remains possible.

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

The thing people have got to remember is that there is no 'physics' reason why we couldn't see an equally dramatic change that we saw with regards to the shift from easterly to the set-up originally forecasted (though the truth ended up slightly closer to the easterly than expected!)

 

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Don't believe the 06z...usually throws up different trends, again I wonder what it's verification is like compared to the 0z and 12z...it does look a better trend though and one we'd like to see but I have my doubts.

Just as we are all happy again😭

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An interesting new development for Friday on the latest ARPEGE. The front across the midlands dies out pretty quickly, but a new front appears from the south:

arpege-1-72-0.png?29-11

(UK view not updated on Meteociel yet)

caveat - IMO this model is best inside T48 and can be a little shaky beyond that.

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3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Plenty more drama mate. I know some may call it hopecasting but I remain convinced we could see a sudden shift from a mild, flat, zonal outlook to a cold/Very cold E,ly. All of which developing at +144 to +168 and not +300plus. I spotted this a couple of days ago and believe it remains possible.

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

Append a little query string to the URL of these Wetterzentrale charts and you won't get the cached one appearing. For example, I appended ?v=2019012906Z to the image URL:

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png?v=2019012906Z

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GFSP also being very consistent with where it is forecasting everything.

06Z GFSP has the northern extent around that Liverpool-Hull line again, but still introduces some more marginal air into the far south as the flow turns more southerly after an intial decent amount of snow. Interesting middle ground situation, like a more marginal UKMO.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

An interesting new development for Friday on the latest ARPEGE. The front across the midlands dies out pretty quickly, but a new front appears from the south:

arpege-1-72-0.png?29-11

(UK view not updated on Meteociel yet)

caveat - IMO this model is best inside T48 and can be a little shaky beyond that.

Certainly interesting, the other models have toyed with this but introduce it as sleet/rain due to higher 850hpa, but as the ARPEGE is further south, the cold air is never dislodged, so snow instead.

Also HIRLAM performed VERY well with storm Emma last year and it also looks like its going to evolve in a similar way to the ICON/UKMO/ECM triplet.

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