Cold hunt - models and chat

[booferking]

Further North.

[warrenb]

And you wonder why people get confused, one further south one further north, all on the same chart. Brilliant

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Upgrade on latest gfs!!snow line further south and more snow in east anglia at 66 hours!!oh and in the earlier timeframe you can see its slowly edging towards the ecm!

further NW looks to me

[kold weather]

Well the GFS is being as consistent as the UKMO/ECM are being, snow does fall a bit further south but the frontal system pushes through to about as far north again as previously, so we are again no closer to knowing what the likely outcome is!

One of these sets of models is going to have been consistently wrong...

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by kold weather

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Further North.

Its GFS and a couple other big guns against APREGE/ICON, some of these models are going to be majorly wrong.

 

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Upgrade on latest gfs!!snow line further south and more snow in east anglia at 66 hours!!oh and in the earlier timeframe you can see its slowly edging towards the ecm!

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Further North.

NORTH /SOUTH? ?!

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

further NW looks to me

Southern extent of snowline was further southh at 66 hours but precipitation still goes north!!brilliant run for the midlands though!!

[booferking]

Just now, snowice said:

NORTH /SOUTH? ?!

Further North 

[Vikos]

We just need a stairway for those -40°C

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Its GFS and a couple other big guns against APREGE/ICON, some of these models are going to be majorly wrong.

 

As per usual!!!    -    There are always these disagreements right near to these type of evens, many a time years ago, even the BBC forecasts had fronts too far E or NE meaning rain for me, and ended up missing out due to the other reason, it stayed too far West, granted the professionals are better these days at interpreting the data, but you still get runs / forecasts changing right up until the time.

[ukpaul]

3 minutes ago, snowice said:

NORTH /SOUTH? ?!

It's a little North but the major difference is it's less snowy, especially for the north Midlands. Reason being that it misses the 'wraparound' snow arriving later on Friday. Variation on a theme really.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Its GFS and a couple other big guns against APREGE/ICON, some of these models are going to be majorly wrong.

 

Its GFS, GEM, JMA (which is poor at this type of set-up, its not really designed for this micro set-up) and the joke model NAVGEM on one side.

UKMO, ARPEGE, ECM and ICON on the other.

If you were talking on form paper, there is only one winner out of those two groups.

However clearly this isn't on form paper and therefore each must be treated with the potential of being right. Certainly the GFS is capable of being right in this set-up.

The only other thing I'd say is the GFS has a slightly odd presentation in that it is not really developing much in the way of secondary/wave action along the front at all.

This strikes me as quite unusual for the sole reason that we have an upper low aloft that should be pretty cyclonic in nature and should aid in developing little spin off eddies. The GFS just isn't interested. It MAY be that the model simply hasn't got the ability to 'see' those little eddies, I'm not sure as they are pretty obvious on the other models, but who knows!

[ThatGFS]

13 hours ago, winterof79 said:

conducive

Delete please mods thanks:)

[Frosty.]

Nobody seems to want to talk about the mid / longer range but both the Ecm / Gefs mean indicate a return to normal / mildish from next week with the azores high ridging in close to the southwest and low heights to the northwest with a zonal pattern for the uk.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Nobody seems to want to talk about the mid / longer range but both the Ecm / Gefs mean indicate a return to normal / mildish from next week with the azores high ridging in close to the southwest and low heights to the northwest with a zonal pattern for the uk.

That’s why no one wants to talk about it. I’m am happy to talk about FI on the 00z GFS if you like ? 

[booferking]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Nobody seems to want to talk about the mid / longer range but both the Ecm / Gefs mean indicate a return to normal / mildish from next week with the azores high ridging in close to the southwest and low heights to the northwest with a zonal pattern for the uk.

Cause it don't look good so make the most of what you get from this cold snap.

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nobody seems to want to talk about the mid / longer range but both the Ecm / Gefs mean indicate a return to normal / mildish from next week with the azores high ridging in close to the southwest and low heights to the northwest with a zonal pattern for the uk.

Personally, I think the models are still figuring out the medium term and I am waiting for a few more runs before conclusions. I suspect zonal and milder is not what we will see though!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nobody seems to want to talk about the mid / longer range but both the Ecm / Gefs mean indicate a return to normal / mildish from next week with the azores high ridging in close to the southwest and low heights to the northwest with a zonal pattern for the uk.

'cos it dosen't belong in here maybe????????? daft post

Edited January 29, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[ukpaul]

ECM - Friday 1am

GFS - Friday 1am

Slight difference in angle but the extent of snow north and south now appears to be about the same northwards with ECM a wider band including the South East.

ECM

Dang, not appearing. Anyway, it's here - https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/fr-europe-ecmwf-87.htm#072

GFS

Edited January 29, 2019 by ukpaul

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Cause it don't look good so make the most of what you get from this cold snap.

Dont look good rite now, and @face value..

But i'll have a massive punt the short/sharp milder interlude...will be just that.

And outs will very soon highlight that ...

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nobody seems to want to talk about the mid / longer range but both the Ecm / Gefs mean indicate a return to normal / mildish from next week with the azores high ridging in close to the southwest and low heights to the northwest with a zonal pattern for the uk.

Sharper ridge trying to get up towards Iceland at 132 - could be a good run the 6z.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

ECM - Friday 1am

GFS - Friday 1am

Slight difference in angle but the extent of snow north and south now appears to be about the same.

 

That slight difference in angle is the difference between 3-4 inches in the south and 0-0, its such a subtle difference but it make a world of difference to be sure!

I suspect the GFS is probably concentrating too much energy on one core center rather then disrupting it amongst several smaller eddies. The 00z ICON took that to the extreme and as I said was overdone, so now it looks more realistic its corrected back to where the 00z UKMO/ECM are at.

[warrenb]

Oh now GFS more interesting now, has it finally picked up the downwelling.

[mountain shadow]

24 minutes ago, warrenb said:

And you wonder why people get confused, one further south one further north, all on the same chart. Brilliant

The GFS is hugely further North.  The ECM has the snow confined to Munster,  the GFS brings it 200 miles further North to Ulster.  Athe this relatively close range I'm staggered by the difference. 

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

'cos it dosen't belong in here maybe????????? daft post

Yes it does!!! models is the give away on the title.Altho its turned into the snow on my garden shed thread