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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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9 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

It's almost the time to switch from forecasting to nowcasting... I hope this thread gets a little quieter and the regional boards fly

Where would folks estimate FI to be at the moment and now nailed on is the mild spell after the weekend?

V

I think still about five or six days as it has been one of those winters where small adjustments make a big difference! A warm up looks likely to me; the question is how mild and for how long?

At this time of year the PV would normally be waning anyway and February tends to be more blocked. As with the winter to date, it's about what happens to that lobe of PV over Canada....

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Hi-res models for today all over the place, Thursday very tough to call. 

But then.....,,

The Dafs will be out before we know it :bad:

8C036066-4CB8-4D94-8E73-046214983EFE.thumb.gif.d03641f1a820861b41a704369a99d7b0.gif

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7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

So the rain and sleet fest is upon us followed by a day of 6c for Wednesday so whatever does settle (if anything) will melt as soon as the sun rises will then be followed by transient snow event (with the same results) on Thursday to then be followed by a couple of weeks of slightly below to average temperatures.

That maybe the case for some locations but other locations will look back on this week come Sunday with fond memories imo. 

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12 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

But then we’re in a never ending cycle of searching for cold in FI, when in reality some cold and snow is right on our doorsteps, seems perfectly reasonable that 95% of people are focusing on the next 3 days. We have cold NOW why look ahead 10 days for it.

I don’t get it lol.

Because there are regional threads to do that in, it is fine if someone posts, model A has the track of feature B at location C, with a relevant chart, but thats not what we get is it, we get, people asking will it snow on my house, or why has my app downgraded my location, I think its largely because people are desperate, most of the posters asking about snow in their location, however the posts are dressed up are really saying, SOMEONE GIVE ME SOME HOPE ITS GOING TO SNOW ON MY HOUSE, I figure they think, as this is the busiest thread, this is the likeliest place that someone will deliver that reassurance. 

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14 minutes ago, warrenb said:

So the rain and sleet fest is upon us followed by a day of 6c for Wednesday so whatever does settle (if anything) will melt as soon as the sun rises will then be followed by transient snow event (with the same results) on Thursday to then be followed by a couple of weeks of slightly below to average temperatures.

Sounds like a rubbish music festival!  Made me snigger though!

I think some may get a bit luckier than that looking at this morning's model runs both in the short and longer term but if you compare this spell to what they have had in central Europe for example I get the sentiment.

But hey we live in the UK and we have to take what we can get.  I mean who doesn't love chasing down an inch of slush?!  🤣

Certainly signs in the mid term on the ECM in particular that any mild weather (if it materialises at all) may only be temporary....

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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GEFS has the prolonged cold for February ending on the 3rd Feb.

yes, cold snow for some over the next couple of days but not a noteable event and certainly not the arctic freezer type conditons many yearn.

lessons?  Models are just that, and they have all failed big time this winter.  Everything of interest is always at T240 with a 48 hour climbdown on every event......

 

how does gfs vs ecm look on verification stats this week?

Edited by Day_10
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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The scandi ridge signals grow ever stronger as does the easterly on the 850 spreads ..........another frigid ext ended control looks likely 

Yes not bad at all and the key date still looks around the 4 th February . The ECM op right at the top end of solutions . Too much energy heading ne not enough se so regardless of the ops I think the outlook could get more interesting .

Edited by nick sussex
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ECM 00z has gone off on one after the 4th as it heads both warmer and colder than the mean

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.4e165c90af8811a157291d3065fb3e16.png

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Ec snow depth for Thurs night ..similar to yesterday’s 12z

C73B03BA-1A97-41FB-9312-51D0E3B5A007.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Ec snow depth for Thurs night ..similar to yesterday’s 12z

C73B03BA-1A97-41FB-9312-51D0E3B5A007.jpeg

Looks great although there is a growing divide between ECM V UKMO / ICON on the spread of the PPN

The later models push more PPN east with a further south stall out- something to watch ...

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Sadly no sign of anything really sustained with regards to prolonged wintry prospects. For several days now the ec det runs have been indicating a return to something less cold/mild in its ext outlook period and these signs don’t seem to be waning by any means. Yes, it may only be a temporary temp rise but overall time is of the essence now as the clock is ticking fast on this forgettable winter. 

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18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good news this morning

UKMO extended is back!

ukm2.2019020500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.af1fe4f4a09ad623520e673781e70bc0.png

Mild Westerlies incoming looking at that. Still, warm rain is marginally better than cold rain.

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Mild Westerlies incoming looking at that. Still, warm rain is marginally better than cold rain.

I see it so differently to you ... looks like another slider/diver to me though where remains open to debate 

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(Upgrades this morning! - for Dartmoor that is! IMBY is where it is at! Four days of little snowlflake icons on the Met-O forecast! Woohoo - IMBY! South correction, Dartmoor-centric correction!)

- there, now I have begun with a nod to the current thread modus operandi, I wonder if anyone can explain what this 'pivot' issue is and how it might happen - ideally with charts (no need to be with respect to Dartmoor!)

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I see it so differently to you ... looks like another slider/diver to me though where remains open to debate 

It certainly could be but the area we would like to see we can’t. All depends on what’s in your minds eye to the ne will dictate how you view it. Short term, Thursday looks better than today for many, not down here😩 but for more people over a larger area.

342E5662-5230-4145-9156-2F6923E3AF06.png

Edited by That ECM

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23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Looks great although there is a growing divide between ECM V UKMO / ICON on the spread of the PPN

The later models push more PPN east with a further south stall out- something to watch ...

Also steve that precipitation is really gathering pace across wales and become really organised!!seen your video on facebook yesterday and you mentioned some very lucky spots could get up to 10cms max out of this but u did stress thats the maximum!you still think thats whats going to happen?

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I see it so differently to you ... looks like another slider/diver to me though where remains open to debate 

Hi blue

whats your take on the ec46.

what I mean is is this likely to flip back to a more blocked pattern come next run.

or does this generally remain consistent, as it’s been generally trending cold for weeks.

could it be that it’s picking up on the not so cold weather after the weekend and just running with that like a default.

once it picks up on less than average temps it reverts back to that pattern.

sorry if that makes no sense

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also steve that precipitation is really gathering pace across wales and become really organised!!seen your video on facebook yesterday and you mentioned some very lucky spots could get up to 10cms max out of this but u did stress thats the maximum!you still think thats whats going to happen?

Hi Shaky 

 

how is do we get that video

cheers

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37 minutes ago, Day_10 said:

Models are just that, and they have all failed big time this winter. 

The models haven't failed big time!!..the weather has failed big time..so far..BUT..at least some of us are going to experience the pleasures of disruptive snow before this week is over!!😉😁:cold:❄️

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Doing a comparison of the models with regards to northward progress of snow Thursday night, ICON and UKMO similar at 00z Friday, EC further north, GFS furthest north by a long mile

UKMO-G

9C4BF63B-1674-4ADC-95F4-A032F126417F.thumb.gif.281a88c74264825e472f20f752db3924.gif

ICON

4F9BE4A1-C3E7-4781-BEAB-636E8214041A.thumb.gif.0ff859058b23a3694664488435583ca9.gif

ECMWF

E8660F9A-9442-4470-89D8-4EE85734C895.thumb.png.08247b1707e49041c6ef1f6b7a8ffb2e.png

GFS

37A465BE-7958-4382-B8E0-F3B2959993A4.thumb.gif.7b0c32ebbb4a32660e34dd26c4b859d3.gif

Tricky for UKMet forecasters to put a warning zone in for areas such as northern England, given ppn doesn’t make headway there on their own model. Be interesting to see which is more likely, I guess EC middle ground the safe bet, given it’s shifted further north compared to 12z yesterday. But wouldn’t rule out southward shift come 12z output later, given the low driving fronts north is sliding SE and complex in shape.

 

Edited by Nick F
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30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Looks great although there is a growing divide between ECM V UKMO / ICON on the spread of the PPN

The later models push more PPN east with a further south stall out- something to watch ...

Look at Cork!! Wow

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Well that was traumatic! Despite all the northward, southward, eastward and westward 'corrections', I'm still none-the-wiser...?:cc_confused:

And, as if rubbing salt into the wound, the hopes of a sustained blast of Siberian cold are also starting to fade a little!:cray:

'Morning Shaky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????******!😁

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Adjustment north for thursday's front by the ICON 06z:

anim_met5.gif

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