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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm same as yesterday !!snow midlands wales!!ukmo maybe too far south!!

ECM 72 snow is from london ( & a smidge further NE ) across to wales & the south midlands

Southern Ireland is the sweet spot-

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Basically identical to the 18z ECM and the 00 ukmo. Snow line again is from Hampshire then 285 degrees from there. Maybe quite wet for far south but intensity helps.

S.Ureland is hammered, UKMO even more severe, geniune rosk of an emergency I'd say for a few parts down there, jackpot of a 1ft, but UKMO maybe closer to 18 inches just due to some exceptionally high rates being shown.

Sounds Ott but that's what I'm seeing.

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

So no where near as north as gfs!Whats the totals looking like mate for the east central and east midlands and also for london?

3-10 midlands more further west - snow almost down to south coast

NW midlands does ok 

central wales 20-30 as is Southern Ireland

Southern coastal cut off point west with no cover around IOW

NE cut off is the wash across to North wales but also more in the NW up to cumbria

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

What bout wales east anglia midlands!!

All good for snow on 09z ECM, Wales in particular hit hard as well. My gut would say red warning would be required, put it that way.

General total s of 2-4 inches but a few higher totals just starting to creep in as well now...especially W.Midlands and the other two places.

Edited by kold weather

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So, of the main models:

GFS and GFSP take Thursday’s snow the furthest north (as is usually the case), with the northern limit around the far north of England/far south of Scotland.

ICON and probably the UKMO have it furthest south, barely into the South Midlands.

ECM somewhat of a middle ground, with the snow as far north as Lancashire and Yorkshire, before the front pivots and brings some snow further north east to around Newcastle.

My money would be on something close to the ECM. Maybe a bit further south.

Edited by MattStoke

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8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

So, of the main models:

GFS and GFSP take Thursday’s snow the furthest north (as is usually the case), with the northern limit around the far north of England/far south of Scotland.

ICON and probably the UKMO have it furthest south, barely into the South Midlands.

ECM somewhat of a middle ground, with the snow as far north as Lancashire and Yorkshire, before the front pivots and brings some snow further north east to around Newcastle.

My money would be on something close to the ECM.

Yes, ECM actually gets the snow quite a way into N England...weakening all the time, granted.

Edited by CreweCold

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Yes. The ECM does get snow quite a way north this morning but my memory still returns to :

January 2013 and December 2017 where southerly corrections happened very last minute . 

To me the Herefordshire area might end up doing very well or somewhere like Shropshire .   

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Just now, kev238 said:

Yes. The ECM does get snow quite a way north this morning but my memory still returns to :

January 2013 and December 2017 where southerly corrections happened very last minute . 

To me the Herefordshire area might end up doing very well or somewhere like Shropshire .   

Unlike those instances (more especially 2013) there isn't really any blocking diverting this system. It's purely its interaction with surrounding features that is going to dictate where it ends up and what shape the low crosses the UK as. There isn't really much forcing to shear the system as much as the UKMO and ICON show, but you never know.

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5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Any precipitation charts for this mornings ecm yet?

Not updated yet as far as i can see.

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Better FI for ECM this morning. Less flat [email protected] More heights to the north. Hope the trend continues. And cold air incoming from Arctic Russia.

ECE1-240 (6).gif

ECE0-240 (4).gif

Edited by Seasonality

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6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Better FI for ECM this morning. Less flat [email protected] More heights to the north. Hope the trend continues. And cold air incoming from Arctic Russia.

ECE1-240 (6).gif

ECE0-240 (4).gif

Finally someone is posting about the hunt for cold rather than whether the the snow is going to be 50 miles north or south it is getting rather tedious!!

yeah a promising signal looking ahead, hopefully a late blast from the east like last year ⛄

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7 hours ago, Catacol said:

OK - but if we don't try and read the signals where does that leave us? Going nowhere fast. There are some who would prefer just to take the weather as it comes each day by looking out the window. Fair play to them - probably the most sane way of doing it!! But if we are going to have a weather forum where we discuss prospects for developing weather events then we better try and understand the signals or else we are totally wasting our time.

Agreed. Looking back, the stratosphere and troposphere seemed to be decoupled at the start of the season, so probably needs factoring in to any future forecasts. In addition, more attention paid to state of QBO and why this particular SSW left such a persistent vortex over Canada. 

These are all lessons to be learnt for future reference. Science is about testing and refining theories. Unfortunately, meteorology is a science which does not allow experiments in controlled environments, so all we can do is try and use previous observations. It's all about learning. Some seem to simply enjoy seeing others fail in their efforts; this has been the case through history in every area of science, so it will never change, but without trying theories we would never get anywhere!

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Morning all! Woke up and instantly checked the snow charts for this evening on 10 models - and they all completely disagreed with each other! 

Have a great day and hope you see snow 🙂

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18 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Finally someone is posting about the hunt for cold rather than whether the the snow is going to be 50 miles north or south it is getting rather tedious!!

yeah a promising signal looking ahead, hopefully a late blast from the east like last year ⛄

Haha it's going to worse mate. You can't blame people for being excited but I agree now it's almost up on us the regionals is the place to discuss it.

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34 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Unlike those instances (more especially 2013) there isn't really any blocking diverting this system. It's purely its interaction with surrounding features that is going to dictate where it ends up and what shape the low crosses the UK as. There isn't really much forcing to shear the system as much as the UKMO and ICON show, but you never know.

Difficult call because it is the fact that  the upper low is present with this it's almost 100% likely yo spawn secondary depressions, and those are more likely to be spotted by the higher resolution models at this stage.

I do think ECM is a good middle ground, though worth noting that the front is very weak by the time it reaches Yorkshire, snizzle type precip!

Icon in particular I think maybe overdoing it.

Edited by kold weather

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An interesting few days coming up ! Putting aside tonights snow and in relation to the next low.

At the moment the nw Midlands , the southern part of the Peak District and northern Wales look to be in a good position for snow . And of course not forgetting our fellow coldies across in parts of Ireland .

The ICON looks a bit of an outlier at this point , the GFS on the other end the same so a combination of the ECM and UKMO looks a good bet.

Other areas are likely to see some snow but the crucial bit is where the pivot happens on the low.

The coldest air will remain on the nw flank of that. As the low pulls away to the se colder air will head down again so some parts who saw snow and then slightly less cold conditions could see the rain turning back to snow but at this timeframe uncertainty as to how active the occlusion will be at that stage .

 

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26 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Finally someone is posting about the hunt for cold rather than whether the the snow is going to be 50 miles north or south it is getting rather tedious!!

yeah a promising signal looking ahead, hopefully a late blast from the east like last year ⛄

But then we’re in a never ending cycle of searching for cold in FI, when in reality some cold and snow is right on our doorsteps, seems perfectly reasonable that 95% of people are focusing on the next 3 days. We have cold NOW why look ahead 10 days for it.

I don’t get it lol.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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It's almost the time to switch from forecasting to nowcasting... I hope this thread gets a little quieter and the regional boards fly

Where would folks estimate FI to be at the moment and now nailed on is the mild spell after the weekend?

V

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1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Pages of rubbish which should be in the regionals......Model wise........

ECM 120, that arctic high nudging south into Scandinavia a real tease, frigid uppers on it's eastern flank being drawn south westwards...ironically it's Thursdays low which halts it's track!

Note how the low which is giving so much excitement this Thursday sits over Finland and stops the high in it's tracks...ironic!

ECMOPEU00_120_1-1.png

ECMOPEU00_168_1-7.png

I can imagine the low not finding it as easy to push back that high in future runs as it has done on this one

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So the rain and sleet fest is upon us followed by a day of 6c for Wednesday so whatever does settle (if anything) will melt as soon as the sun rises will then be followed by transient snow event (with the same results) on Thursday to then be followed by a couple of weeks of slightly below to average temperatures.

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