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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I really wish those GFS snow charts were hidden behind a paywall..

Given their accuracy, no one in their right mind would pay for them, surely?

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Arpege has mostly rain tomorrow afternoon and night with snow looking to be mainly reserved for higher ground as the rain clears the UK and moves into Northern France it turns quite widely to snow. Showers then follow for Tuesday with again a mix of rain, sleet and snow for higher ground

anim_lwa6.thumb.gif.4f1e08bae943dbd4d10441ea23e1cedc.gif

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

I really wish those GFS snow charts were hidden behind a paywall..

I agree. They should pay us every time we see them. 

In fairness, for many places in the world they are probably more useful. Most places in the northern hemisphere would pretty much be nailed on for snow with uppers of -7. Our UK microclimate however means that is often the wrong side of marginal. That's maritime airmasses for you.

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6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I really wish those GFS snow charts were hidden behind a paywall..

The GFSP snow accumulation charts are even worse than the old GFS ones.

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33 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yeah ice cold, uppers are miles away from what was being shown a few days ago, from gfs this run is great for the Scottish ski industry though! 

I think all of us in the south would much prefer the non-easterly to have come off, but the current setup isn't going to get us there, assuming the status quo with the long wave pattern (high confidence). So those of us in the SE/S are just going to hope for something interesting in the flow in a generally chilly spell.

FWIW I see little hope of an easterly in at least the next 16 days and if the current Canadian lobe remains in situ, as the current mean suggests then...

D16 mean gensnh-21-1-372.thumb.png.82a3a77bea089e11c1ca9bcab7dd8953.png

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1 minute ago, Jason M said:

I agree. They should pay us every time we see them. 

In fairness, for many places in the world they are probably more useful. Most places in the northern hemisphere would pretty much be nailed on for snow with uppers of -7. Our UK microclimate however means that is often the wrong side of marginal. That's maritime airmasses for you.

It's more that they're so low resolution that a few snow flurries looks like a full frontal band of heavy snowfall, not to mention how utterly inaccurate the GFS is when it comes to general PPN, let alone snowfall

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I am cautiously optimistic that we may eventually see an Easterly in February.  There are plenty of snow chances for many in the coming week, which hopefully do for some. But the severe cold, which will quite possibly threaten the record books in the NE USA, is not helping the UK in the short to medium term, that is if you are looking for a memorable cold spell, especially with  full force of the jet steam station over Scotland. 

25C2CBD4-BD66-47E8-97C3-D9AFECADD237.png

138F04DD-859D-4223-9504-B706D36610B6.png

125D2438-4003-46A4-9CFF-4F1FB5E7FD12.png

Edited by pandit-scholar
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And plus that would be counter productive for any website, as who the bloody hell is going to pay to see them?

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

It's more that they're so low resolution that a few snow flurries looks like a full frontal band of heavy snowfall, not to mention how utterly inaccurate the GFS is when it comes to general PPN, let alone snowfall

Plus, the low resolution picks up that it will snow somewhere in the grid whereas in reality its just a high ground affair. I think most people in here know all this stuff but it does cause the odd message saying 'blizzards, snow, cold, great run etc' when in reality its just a spell of bog standard winter weather. Very confusing for lurkers I expect.

 

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Bigger spectrum..

Ponder over the notions..

THERE IS NO RETURN TO MOBILITY/ZONAL  'as we know' ..4 consid-time.

Zonals-are @ try and pressure to return and revert..(usual syncs)..

Its still game board on..for a decent soell...even a very notable 1....that could take some taking away...once locked!!

 

Ens 4 lower drive-compare!!

u10serie (2).png

u10serie (1).png

Z_temp_10hpa_000 (1).png

MT8_London_ens (16).png

Edited by tight isobar
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22 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Can I ask and this is a genuine question, what happens if another storm hits the us then will we be back to square one again with all good looking charts getting closer only to change when they get to like 5 days? It may sound dumb but I really am interested in this.

i no longer term all sounds great but it will be March before we no it and it has been a pretty poo winter so far. Just curious 

then a big March storm comes along and mucks it all up 

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4 minutes ago, pandit-scholar said:

I am cautiously confident we may eventually see an Easterly in February.  There are plenty of snow chances for many in the coming week, which hopefully do for some. But the severe cold, which will quite possibly threaten the record books in the NE USA, is not helping the UK in the short to medium term, that is if you are looking for a memorable cold spell, especially with  full force of the jet steam station over Scotland. 

25C2CBD4-BD66-47E8-97C3-D9AFECADD237.png

138F04DD-859D-4223-9504-B706D36610B6.png

125D2438-4003-46A4-9CFF-4F1FB5E7FD12.png

Totall agree. Highly improbable to have cold in US eastern seaboard, cold in the UK and cold in Europe. With the energy spewing out of the States you’ll find the cold snowy charts will always stay in FI (196 hours), when only low resolution or compound led errors throws up such events.

That energy and the Spanish high will make this winter remembered by ‘cold to left of me, cold to the right of me and I’m stuck in the middle with cold rain’

 

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20 minutes ago, IDO said:

 So those of us in the SE/S are just going to hope for something interesting in the flow in a generally chilly spell.

 

In a cyclonic flow I would think there is a high chance of little troughs and features circulating around the lows as they down, and they may not get picked up before 96hrs either. There was a time during 2003-2007 where such featureas were quite common I seem to recall, haven't had too many cyclonic northerlies since then other than the big hitters in Jan 10 and Dec 10.

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The 60 N zonal winds turned westerly again yesterday, so the PV is in recovery mode. Not good. See the Met guys tweet in the tweet thread. 

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definitely the end of the hunt for easterly in the short term,on ecm.All those wonderful looking charts with very cold upper air and heavy snow shower etc,just shows you unless easterly gets down to about plus 72 hours, then just think it WONT happen😒

Edited by SLEETY
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Day six comparisons

6E7449EF-7CB4-4856-A9ED-E59B2CA037A9.gif

C5ED9446-5613-4DB2-B681-14F30FCDA3F6.png

 

UKMO looks to be clearly the worst with that nose of pressure over Iberia

A961A5D7-6AF5-4C55-A41E-B55E7B9D077D.png

Edited by Weathizard
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2 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

The 60 N zonal winds turned westerly again yesterday, so the PV is in recovery mode. Not good. See the Met guys tweet in the tweet thread. 

As if the SSW has had a favourable effect on the British Isles already !

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Even if the pv builds back. Takes good couple weeks. Still in the game

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No SSW without returning to w'stly winds, that would be a Final Warming ;)

 

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10 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

The 60 N zonal winds turned westerly again yesterday, so the PV is in recovery mode. Not good. See the Met guys tweet in the tweet thread. 

The pv is not just gonna be built back up  in 24 hours . It can take weeks . Not to worry about that yet . I’m sure there meto oulook is based around this . 

Edited by ICE COLD

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