Cold hunt - models and chat

[ukpaul]

Clear northerm shift in the last 24 hours for tonight and tomorrow’s system from the ICON. 

Now

Yesterday

Although the day before that, it looks like back to square one!

 

[bluearmy]

It’s  not working - I’m trying! Can you click on it ...seems to work then 

this shows a good chance of an easterly flow coming on the ec spreads ....would it reach the uk?  

Can I stop now ?  Are some of you more open minded yet ??.

Edited January 28, 2019 by bluearmy

[Djdazzle]

Who knows what will happen in Feb? It does seem that there is little in the models to suggest anything substantially cold. We were told to be patient, it will come etc. Are those people so confident now?

As much as I want cold and snow, part of me also would like a mild Feb just to serve as a concrete example as to how unreliable long term preeictions can be, regardless of background signals and the EC46 etc.

A lot of egg will be scraped off faces!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Day 15 so take it with relevant pinches of salt but it doesn’t just arrive unannounced .....

 

and those of you saying that there is nothing in the modelling showing cold in feb need to look harder

eps clusters at day 14.5

 

Day 15 gefs mean - not bad at such a range

We've been seeing these type of means/clusters day in and day out for 5 weeks Nick...come on...

[snowray]

Those on here that watch the charts four times a day for five or six months of the year, heres something really special in the ICON, super cold up to our North East towards Scandi/Svalbad, with pressure starting to rise up that way. This is where the cold starts to build in classic easterlies. Enough said.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, CreweCold said:

We've been seeing these type of means/clusters day in and day out for 5 weeks Nick...come on...

Agreed. They have been less than useless.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ICON 18Z follows on from quite a number of ECM ensembles that keep the snow south - I see koldweather has put this at about 15% so not massive - but there's a move afoot to bring everything south.

Mind you northerners - the ensembles that keep the snow further north general go for some really good falls.

Exhausting keeping up with this

Almost feels like one of those times where the model snaps back too hard and then has to correct against itself at a later date, but equally it could be a continuation of the trend. That 15% is up from about 5-6% on the 00z suite as well in all fairness...however its still certainly an outside risk. One that I'd gladly take!

It'll have my attention more if the GFS sides with it, or at least gets close.

Heck, that's almost a channel low in its own right on that run  

[Lampostwatcher]

looks like the south could nick all the snow 

great run for the us down here 

 

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Day 15 so take it with relevant pinches of salt but it doesn’t just arrive unannounced .....

 

 

Blue, quick question regarding the above chart as I've not seen this one before.  I assume the numbers shown are the 850's, not ground temperatures?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We've been seeing these type of means/clusters day in and day out for 5 weeks Nick...come on...

I had snow last Tuesday 

i have a prediction of snow tomorrow and snow on Thursday

I have had to scrape my windscreen more times in the last week than the previous month

am i missing something Arron ?.

 

 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Almost feels like one of those times where the model snaps back too hard and then has to correct against itself at a later date, but equally it could be a continuation of the trend. That 15% is up from about 5-6% on the 00z suite as well in all fairness...however its still certainly an outside risk. One that I'd gladly take!

It'll have my attention more if the GFS sides with it, or at least gets close.

Heck, that's almost a channel low in its own right on that run  

A nice middle ground would be same track higher PPN rates

[Rambo]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Who knows what will happen in Feb? It does seem that there is little in the models to suggest anything substantially cold. We were told to be patient, it will come etc. Are those people so confident now?

As much as I want cold and snow, part of me also would like a mild Feb just to serve as a concrete example as to how unreliable long term preeictions can be, regardless of background signals and the EC46 etc.

A lot of egg will be scraped off faces!

 

Who knew weather forecasting could be so vindictive eh?

[IDO]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think it looks very stingy with the precip . I’m not convinced it’s got that right .

Even worse on the hi-res: major fail if ICON is right:

Though the SW and far SE and EA may get some interest.

[winterof79]

16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Winter come on pal , why you getting well gel ?? It ant anyone’s fault the snow is trending further south . 

Fwiw I think the icon has gone a bit to far south with the low . Lots of chopping and changing yet I suppose. It’s always a drama when the uk is gonna get snow  . 

Only jesting pal.Thought it was funny that it showed nothing for anyone

God forbid

Edited January 28, 2019 by winterof79

[geordiekev]

44 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There's absolutely zilch in the modelling at the moment to suggest a cool February, let alone a cold one. If you can show me some concrete signs of a cold February

Blend of EC monthly and their own used, NW NNW and NE winds towards 20th suggesting similar to now.

Edited January 28, 2019 by geordiekev

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles updated to D15 a little earlier than usual on weather.us 

How can I describe D15? (11 February). Imagine the UK being at the center of a giant roundabout through Scandi, Europe, the near Atlantic, and up to Iceland. Somewhere on this roundabout lies a very significant ridge.

That's what I'm getting from the individual ensembles tonight on the extended - big high coming up, close to the UK, but absolutely no direction on which side. The mean chart will show the front runner but that's it. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Man With Beard

[Leon1]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Even worse on the hi-res: major fail if ICON is right:

Though the SW and far SE and EA may get some interest.

Great run  for the snow starved southerners  

[Bogman]

This thread reminds me of a hormonal teenager at times.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, bluearmy said:

I had snow last Tuesday 

i have a prediction of snow tomorrow and snow on Thursday

I have had to scrape my windscreen more times in the last week than the previous month

am i missing something Arron ?.

 

 

All good and well, but it's January. It would be desperately ABNORMAL to not have to scrape your car windscreen or see some falling snow.

Come on mate, you're better than this. Let's assess where we actually are this winter without rose tinted glasses. It has been awful and there is no dressing it up. You/anyone can dress it up anyway you like but a couple of days of falling snow and having to scrape the windscreen a couple of times does not justify the expectation that we all had this winter (given the signals).

[MATTWOLVES 3]

44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ecm!!!! Who needs it, ba ba booooooom, let's face it nasa live in space, so they gotter no more than anyone, even the met, lol

Ooops it's all gone a bit Pete tongue, never liked nasa anyway,  all that money and they still can't produce a decent model,

Edited January 28, 2019 by Mattwolves

[shaky]

10 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Clear northerm shift in the last 24 hours for tonight and tomorrow’s system from the ICON. 

Now

Yesterday

Although the day before that, it looks like back to square one!

 

Also the band seems more organised!!what are the chances that tomorrows snow ends up giving way more than thursdays

[Rambo]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Agreed. They have been less than useless.

As with nearly ALL models from day 2 or 3 onwards really, so you cant take them as gospel whatever side of the camp you're on

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

this shows a good chance of an easterly flow coming on the ec spreads ....would it reach the uk?  

Can I stop now ?  Are some of you more open minded yet ??.

Can you stop hope casting Nick .. The forum has been doing it all winter .

Also no one mentioned the Gem at day 10 . That’s a good chart . That’s got a lot of ? I won’t say the word it’s been used to much this year it begins with P . 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Toys are out of the pram again tonight and so many arrogant posts!  Why can't people chill out and just enjoy the Winter model rollercoaster for what it is?  If you don't like the British climate move to Canada / Scandinavia etc!

Now to the off topic part of my post....Models!

The ICON this evening has moved tomorrow's front back North again and then moved Thursday's front way to the South so excuse me if I don't get hung up on FI!

Let's see whether the GFS follows suit....

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

All good and well, but it's January. It would be desperately ABNORMAL to not have to scrape your car windscreen or see some falling snow.

Come on mate, you're better than this. Let's assess where we actually are this winter without rose tinted glasses. It has been awful and there is no dressing it up. You/anyone can dress it up anyway you like but a couple of days of falling snow and having to scrape the windscreen a couple of times does not justify the expectation that we all had this winter (given the signals).

Certainly not been the best, but equally its been a pretty bog standard milder than average winter thus far. Compared to the run from 1998-2008 its still not too bad.

Also, we are at risk here of hindcasting something that hasn't yet happened