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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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I'll just say guys that even though I don't understand most of the terminology in this thread, I am grateful to all of you for you input. Is there anywhere I can kind of learn a bit to understand what is being said?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=344&v=5FbYHU2flSM Good youtude video from dan holley of weatherquest about tuesday eve

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Can we keep posts about the BBC, Met Office, Essex weather etc to the relevant topics please? This thread relates to the model output and relatedchat only.

Thank you.

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36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Always a good idea to look into a possible event after it’s happened.

They meant they will look into after “Tuesdays event” just realised what you are referring too??

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2 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

I'll just say guys that even though I don't understand most of the terminology in this thread, I am grateful to all of you for you input. Is there anywhere I can kind of learn a bit to understand what is being said?

PM @tight isobar

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35 minutes ago, P-M said:

Imagine him at the COBR meeting for extreme weather "well the thing is prime minister there's the possibility of some very concerning weather from latest weather models.  I'll let you know just after the event on what I'm thinking." ?   

The tweet is talking primarily about Tuesdays low, so is talking post that event.?

Edit, I'm hours behind?

Edited by Chris101
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A long way when there is so much interest in the near term but the ext EPS are pretty ugly (at the moment).

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1 hour ago, 78/79 said:

Do me a favour, If every 8 day chart had verified this winter ,I would have been buried in snow,and freezing my nuts off weeks ago.I know  next to nothing about interpreting charts,but  even I have sussed out that  at that range,  especially this winter you might as well put some seaweed outside of your back door.and get the same degree of accuracy. 

LOL, or hang a cone, perhaps even check the tree bark and frog spawn, probably be a more accurate outcome 

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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

A long way when there is so much interest in the near term but the ext EPS are pretty ugly (at the moment).

Really bad, not even any hope at all?

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Really bad, not even any hope at all?

Not raging zonality but Euro heights associated with a mid-Atlantic trough is not a great result when so much better was expected.  If we could lose those Euro heights then we could be back in business.

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At work today so just now gathering my thoughts.  There's a lot going on, to be honest.  Let's start with tomorrow, I think this will end up a damp squib for most.  Latest HIRLAM cumulative snow charts to T38, more patchy than the earlier run, so screams marginality. 

image.thumb.jpg.b246ae63b4f75257730652362cf2fd6f.jpg

Much higher hopes for Thursday, latest ICON-EU snow depth T93:

image.thumb.jpg.88cc6c18b0964729b40997fd4eaed55a.jpg

Incidentally I don't like the snow depth charts on any model, they may work in totally frozen parts of the globe, but in the UK, with marginal set ups, rain- snow, snow-rain events where melting is crucial they are absolute rubbish.  For that reason I prefer the cumulative snow charts, reasonably reliable, and you can make your own judgment about how much melts.  Posting the snow depth for Thursday because the cumulative snow would partly be Tuesday.  Hope that makes sense!

ECM op looks to make much more of the Thursday low for the south, so this system really needs watching, so I'd treat the ICON-EU chart above as a baseline, which could well be exceeded.

And the longer timeframe.  I think next week could be quite settled, cool, higher pressure.  ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.934cc2f52e53b5323d584f5dc3c72b87.jpg

Beyond that, the big question is will the Russian high move west, or connect with a Scandi ridge.  Seems plausible to me, and is probably the scenario behind the Met Office hints at very cold weather from the east or northeast.  Deep cold is on he march, whether and when it reaches us is clouded by freezing fog at the moment.  Optimistic though!

 

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6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Not raging zonality but Euro heights associated with a mid-Atlantic trough is not a great result when so much better was expected.  If we could lose those Euro heights then we could be back in business.

Did anyone read Blues post earlier regarding the Eps

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

At work today so just now gathering my thoughts.  There's a lot going on, to be honest.  Let's start with tomorrow, I think this will end up a damp squib for most.  Latest HIRLAM cumulative snow charts to T38, more patchy than the earlier run, so screams marginality. 

image.thumb.jpg.b246ae63b4f75257730652362cf2fd6f.jpg

Much higher hopes for Thursday, latest ICON-EU snow depth T93:

image.thumb.jpg.88cc6c18b0964729b40997fd4eaed55a.jpg

Incidentally I don't like the snow depth charts on any model, they may work in totally frozen parts of the globe, but in the UK, with marginal set ups, rain- snow, snow-rain events where melting is crucial they are absolute rubbish.  For that reason I prefer the cumulative snow charts, reasonably reliable, and you can make your own judgment about how much melts.  Posting the snow depth for Thursday because the cumulative snow would partly be Tuesday.  Hope that makes sense!

ECM op looks to make much more of the Thursday low for the south, so this system really needs watching, so I'd treat the ICON-EU chart above as a baseline, which could well be exceeded.

And the longer timeframe.  I think next week could be quite settled, cool, higher pressure.  ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.934cc2f52e53b5323d584f5dc3c72b87.jpg

Beyond that, the big question is will the Russian high move west, or connect with a Scandi ridge.  Seems plausible to me, and is probably the scenario behind the Met Office hints at very cold weather from the east or northeast.  Deep cold is on he march, whether and when it reaches us is clouded by freezing fog at the moment.  Optimistic though!

 

Very well rounded post there and still plenty to be optimistic about

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You can wish for southern corrections all you want but if it happens then it could end up with tears

image.thumb.png.70f6a8a3fb2f79e79229144ec786c720.png

image.thumb.png.aef6a67b82bd52732fd95c307c0156d6.png

ECM is crud

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6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Not raging zonality but Euro heights associated with a mid-Atlantic trough is not a great result when so much better was expected.  If we could lose those Euro heights then we could be back in business.

This has been a developing pattern for a few days and seems to have really gathered pace today. It’s been a bit surreal really in that the output we see has been saying no to northern blocking consistently but somehow we are expecting it to appear. Unless we see changes in the output in the morning I’d be expecting the long range prognosis to start to change significantly. 

In the short term plenty of interest though so it’s a week to be grateful for what we receive given that Southern European heights are looking like the way forward. As always though nothing is written in stone. 

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The ECM op and a lot of the ensembles aren’t great . It does seem strange though as we’d expect more amplification and not the flat patterns it’s been churning out past day 6 .

The control run looks to bring in an east ne flow . They diverge after the 4th February and go their separate ways .

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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

You can wish for southern corrections all you want but if it happens then it could end up with tears

image.thumb.png.70f6a8a3fb2f79e79229144ec786c720.png

image.thumb.png.aef6a67b82bd52732fd95c307c0156d6.png

ECM is crud

Maybe for you, but I can assure you for the south, Midlands, Wales and S.Ireland, it is pretty wintry and snowy I have to say away from coasts. Very similar to Jan 13, almost same timing as well funnily enough!! Broadly 2-4 inches, Wales and S.Ireland more like 6-12.

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The ECM mean shows it remaining cold for the rest of this week but maybe something less cold as we move through next week?

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.d4cfa3ec592988f506945cb040a67c95.png

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4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

You can wish for southern corrections all you want but if it happens then it could end up with tears

image.thumb.png.70f6a8a3fb2f79e79229144ec786c720.png

image.thumb.png.aef6a67b82bd52732fd95c307c0156d6.png

ECM is crud

-3 850s in this set up is not crud.. 

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3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

This has been a developing pattern for a few days and seems to have really gathered pace today. It’s been a bit surreal really in that the output we see has been saying no to northern blocking consistently but somehow we are expecting it to appear. Unless we see changes in the output in the morning I’d be expecting the long range prognosis to start to change significantly. 

Something will have to give soon.

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Maybe for you, but I can assure you for the south, Midlands, Wales and S.Ireland, it is pretty wintry and snowy I have to say away from coasts. Very similar to Jan 13, almost same timing as well funnily enough!! Broadly 2-4 inches, Wales and S.Ireland more like 6-12.

Not talking imby check the 850s

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5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

ECM is crud

A request, given there are several different timeframes in play at the moment, please could you make it clear which one comments like this refer to?  

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3 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

-3 850s in this set up is not crud.. 

-3 is not going to do it im afraid

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7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

This has been a developing pattern for a few days and seems to have really gathered pace today. It’s been a bit surreal really in that the output we see has been saying no to northern blocking consistently but somehow we are expecting it to appear. Unless we see changes in the output in the morning I’d be expecting the long range prognosis to start to change significantly. 

In the short term plenty of interest though so it’s a week to be grateful for what we receive given that Southern European heights are looking like the way forward. As always though nothing is written in stone. 

Models lead the Metoffice thinking, not the other way round. So yes I would think there would be a change of wording imminent, given the tripe we're being served up in the extended modelling now.

Roll on spring- this winter has been grim!

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

A request, given there are several different timeframes in play at the moment, please could you make it clear which one comments like this refer to?  

The time frame I have shown -3 is not conducive to lowland snow

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