Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

like to see the dewpoints here ..from a neutrals point of view it looks at first glance like lots of cold rain and sleet esp at low levels

Dew points range from 0-1C in the south (away from the direct coast and SW corner) to just a little below 0C further north.

Marginal, but heavy intensity and the SE airflow coming from Europe (Europe's not that cold, but it has just had snowfall which will help to moderate the boundary layer lower than what othersie likely) is what tips the edge to snowfall for most of the south, into the Midlands and northing that marginal about it.

Its a classic set-up where you look at it and think, snow really? Especially given the 850hpa temps. There were a few in the 80s and 90s from looking at the charts you'd think no chance, and yet they happened...

As BA said, I'm not sure in the south its going to be settling great, we'll be gaining but losing probably at the same time, a net gain, but not as much as further north...but I'll take that in a heartbeat given even sleet was looking unlikely a couple of nights ago!!

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Badgers01]

5 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

like to see the dewpoints here ..from a neutrals point of view it looks at first glance like lots of cold rain and sleet esp at low levels

yep thicknesses look marginal

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

This interests me deeply.

Why?...they're/he's an amateur forecaster no more no less than a few on here, I'm sure there are more things in life to be concerned about 

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But it still shows 8 inches for me by saturday - it just isn't going to happen, its a weakening feature which could wrap around but very unlikely to give that many hours of continuous snow and even if it did, tyhere is no way it would be heavy enough

4”+ is mainly on high ground areas eg penines, welsh mountains and Cumbrian fells, most areas in central England have 2-3” which looks about right 

[FetchCB]

8 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

0Z John, 12Z is this...

 

Are there two on that chart? 

One just off the north west coast of Scotland and another further north? 

Edited January 28, 2019 by FetchCB
Random letters posted on mobike6

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, stripeyfox said:

that's really helpful @essexweather ....

 

I guess they didn't want to put too much on the line considering!

[Bruegelian]

Maybe on day 10 ECM signs of Canada PV shifting and heights rising towards newfoundland, but maybe that's too optimistic.

BTW when is the EC46 coming out?

[A.J]

19 minutes ago, shaky said:

Midlands??

you are a nightmare!....lololol

right, to save a lot of time and effort.....I'll post this now, so it will save you posting later...

"ICON!!!.......WTF!!!!!....SNOW!!!......10 MILES North or South on the latest run?!!!!....Midlands?!!!!"

lol....now go and spend some time with your wife and kids for a couple of hours otherwise they'll think you're having an affair with a doris who's called 'Netty Weather"

 

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Why?...they're/he's an amateur forecaster no more no less than a few on here, I'm sure there are more things in life to be concerned about 

Erm they work for Met Office and have the similar data if not the same.. You don't get an amateur forecaster whose verified!

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

This interests me deeply.

Always a good idea to look into a possible event after it’s happened.

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Erm they work for Met Office and have the similar data if not the same.. You don't get an amateur forecaster whose verified!

Okay stand corrected...I know they get their weather info from the Meto.

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Erm they work for Met Office and have the similar data if not the same.. You don't get an amateur forecaster whose verified!

Imagine him at the COBR meeting for extreme weather "well the thing is prime minister there's the possibility of some very concerning weather from latest weather models.  I'll let you know just after the event on what I'm thinking."    

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, P-M said:

Imagine him at the COBR meeting for extreme weather "well the thing is prime minister there's the possibility of some very concerning weather from latest weather models.  I'll let you know just after the event on what I'm thinking."    

A bit different for them.. Most of us amateurs, can put more on the line than an actual company. It affects them more than us.

[Snipper]

God aren’t some of you objectionable on here?

[fromey]

The latest bbc graphics, which model do they use and is this old data or new

[Guest]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

The latest bbc graphics, which model do they use and is this old data or new

Like Euro4 they go for a significant 'shadow' from the Pennines.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, P-M said:

Imagine him at the COBR meeting for extreme weather "well the thing is prime minister there's the possibility of some very concerning weather from latest weather models.  I'll let you know just after the event on what I'm thinking."    

if you are making a joke...

Just in case though; I think the reality is, that they are concentrating on Tuesday's Cold Front before they analyse Thursday's Low!

I like the ECM D10 chart where all the PV has relocated. Just hope it won't do a u-turn and return!

[P-M]

Just now, IDO said:

if you are making a joke...

Just in case though; I think the reality is, that they are concentrating on Tuesday's Cold Front before they analyse Thursday's Low!

I like the ECM D10 chart where all the PV has relocated. Just hope it won't do a u-turn and return!

I know defo tongue in cheek.  I wouldn't want to be forecasting this week that's for sure.  Someone's going to be pulling their hair out lol 

[stripeyfox]

17 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I guess they didn't want to put too much on the line considering!

maybe. or maybe they are just gold medalists in Hedging Bets and Fence Sitting

 

 

[Catacol]

21 minutes ago, Vikos said:

EC FI = west at it's best... game over for the next 2 weeks...

We have an interesting stand off developing - EC op and EPS suites that’s have trended away from cold versus the MetO text that hasn’t altered a bit. I’m just home from work and had seriously expected a watering down of that forecast updated at lunchtime, but Exeter are holding their ground.

I read a really interesting response in another place from a US guru stating that, in his opinion, the extremity of the SSW that reversed winds for over 20 days has actually wrecked the winter forecast so far. Instead of a more predictable SSW with downwelling impacts over the more usual 1-3 weeks we have had such a deep affair (top 3 SSW events was his call) that it has made a mess of the tropical signal and lead to a lot of destructive forcing. It is also his opinion that this is about to end now that the winds have returned to a westerly up top and a more solid and coherent pattern can be established. His research points to a -NAO through February. Lots in his post I want to research.

Its an interesting theory and I hope it is correct, but to me the strat charts have lost any significant hint of reversal impact on the trop in the medium term. We would need the MJO to work more effectively than it has managed to do all winter to impact in this context, or a quite significant alteration in the shape of these lower strat forecasts. I can see the AO tipping negative as the arctic high builds under reduced trop vortex strength....and a more southerly tracking jet will lead to below average temperatures, but cold blocking still looks elusive at this stage and westerly momentum will continue.

Which leads me to this week. Some snow around, more likely end of the week rather than Tuesday which is beginning to look like a non event, but the lows are moving through too fast. No pressure out east means it is a wasted pattern for the most part. Friday into Saturday may be better as there are signs that low may slow down, but whether it will disrupt and whether uppers and DPs will be any good looks a tough call. We’ll know more in a couple of days. SW looking rather snow free to me, but Friday will be our best chance so far this winter.

Ultimately I’m still very much looking for some upgrades and hoping to see that MetO text stay solid. For as long as it holds we can hope that Glosea is seeeing something in the development of the strat and Pacific combination that is currently eluding regular NWP.

 

[Stormeh]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

The latest bbc graphics, which model do they use and is this old data or new

For fellow members in Scotland..

[stripeyfox]

13 minutes ago, P-M said:

Imagine him at the COBR meeting for extreme weather "well the thing is prime minister there's the possibility of some very concerning weather from latest weather models.  I'll let you know just after the event on what I'm thinking."    

this must be where weather forecasters have been going wrong all these years! I'll tell you about yesterday's weather and it will always be 100% accurate. Don't listen to these people who tell you what it's going to do tomorrow - they haven't got a clue 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, stripeyfox said:

this must be where weather forecasters have been going wrong all these years! I'll tell you about yesterday's weather and it will always be 100% accurate. 

Madden would still claim his snowmageddon forecast was correct though 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Why

[gottolovethisweather]

27 minutes ago, P-M said:

Imagine him at the COBR meeting for extreme weather "well the thing is prime minister there's the possibility of some very concerning weather from latest weather models.  I'll let you know just after the event on what I'm thinking."    

1

Isn't that how politicians work, anyhow?  Of course, some might also want to change votes on something already voted on two years ago as well. I want snow, no, I voted for rain, can I have sleet then?

Edited January 28, 2019 by gottolovethisweather

[fromey]

11 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

For fellow members in Scotland..

Apologies, sorry Scotland!!