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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Just now, shaky said:

In all seriousness after that ecm i would swap the amber around!!

Are they going with ECM though?

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Just now, P-M said:

Are they going with ECM though?

It’s a cold weather alert. 

Not snow alert. 

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Just now, Spah1 said:

It’s a cold weather alert. 

Not snow alert. 

I know but referencing the snow mentioned in the amber alert that's what I thought he meant.

Edited by P-M

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EC FI = west at it's best... game over for the next 2 weeks...

ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

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3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yep be in channel Islands Thurs!!!

Well it would make a change if we got to even see something! 6c tomorrow wintry showers, lots of wind very good at that here! 8c on Thursday, rain. If only people knew the excitement it causes you’d let us have a bit. 

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Note this ec op offers a further frontal edge snowfall at T180/186 - however, that the last hurrah as the sw flow strengthens …. wonder what happens if that sw flow doesn't strengthen and the ridging ahead of the day 7/8 system is more pronounced ………...

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6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

12z ECM has got a decent snowfall.

Even close to the coast in the SE between 75-81hrs there is snowfall (apart from on the coast!) though I agree with BA, its a touch marginal on the dew points front, but I'll need to wait for the 1hr charts to finish coming out to tell on that front.

To break the 12z ECM down:

As Ba said, not much snowfall for SW.

Snow starts to fall more readily even close to the coast from E.Hampshire eastwards, from that point draw a line about 285 degrees for the snow line. It is a touch mixed upto about 20-30 miles from coast.

Anywhere north of that line gets snow, rough amounts of between 2-4 inches. Not exactly buried as BA again correctly said, but a decent dumping, not that dissimilar to Jan 2013.

So what about midlands and walez!!lobe your updates keep em up

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2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

EC FI = west at it's best... game over for the next 2 weeks...

ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

Yeah cuz it’s going to happen just like this chart you posted, no more changes it’s all done everybody!! 😂

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Interesting pivot on the ECM at day 4 .

A lucky location will be in the area which gets snow from the sw and then remains in the cold air with more snow as the low pivots .

Although it’s frustrating to see another Channel Low miss that does bring some snow to northern France and as the next source of air ahead of the next low on Thursday is from there that snow cover and cold temps due could help re dew points being pulled nw .

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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

sw England not great away from the moors and wales v good too …… buried may be a little OTT …… dp's are marginal more than i'd like them to be for widespread non thawing snowfall

A sane post. Thanks!

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Just now, shaky said:

So what about midlands and walez!!lobe your updates keep em up

Good snowfall basically!

Probably 6-8hrs of solid snowfall, does weaken towards the end of that time frame but somewhere between 2-4 inches, some places would almost certainly get more however, especially west Midlands and Wales which do get hammered.

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Yeah cuz it’s going to happen just like this chart you posted, no more changes it’s all done everybody!! 😂

i'm just beeing real...

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BA / Kold weather covering the ECM snow for Thursday pretty well, but just add to add even more detail:

By 6pm on Thursday, the whole of Wales has seen a snow event, and then all of England south of a line from Liverpool to Norwich (except Devon/Cornwall).

More marginal for Somerset, Dorset and parts of Hampshire, as well as some coastal areas with the wind blowing from offshore.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 12z is great for snow - Southern England around 5-10cm

SE Ireland + Wales especially mid upwards get smashed up to 30cms...

Any chance of your snow cone save all the disagreement! 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 12z is great for snow - Southern England around 5-10cm

SE Ireland + Wales especially mid upwards get smashed up to 30cms...

Have you got charts steve? 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Note this ec op offers a further frontal edge snowfall at T180/186 - however, that the last hurrah as the sw flow strengthens …. wonder what happens if that sw flow doesn't strengthen and the ridging ahead of the day 7/8 system is more pronounced ………...

Why are you looking at day 7/8 when we don't have the closer term sorted yet? (as some were telling me last night) 🙂 still trending 'milder' in EC FI (I will not say 'mild') as everybody will be laughing at me as of last night...a little hypocritical.

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8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

12z ECM has got a decent snowfall.

Even close to the coast in the SE between 75-81hrs there is snowfall (apart from on the coast of course!) though I agree with BA, its a touch marginal on the dew points front, but I'll need to wait for the 1hr charts to finish coming out to tell on that front. It becomes increasingly less marginal from about Thames northwards.

To break the 12z ECM down:

As Ba said, not much snowfall for SW.

Snow starts to fall more readily even close to the coast from E.Hampshire eastwards, from that point draw a line about 285 degrees for the snow line. It is a touch mixed upto about 20-30 miles from coast, so altitude probably will make the difference with settling snow there.

Anywhere north of that line gets snow, rough amounts of between 2-4 inches. Not exactly buried as BA again correctly said, but a decent dumping, not that dissimilar to Jan 2013.

Could do with it being a touch delayed I'd say just to reduce marginality a touch.

Just to add to this:

The northern extent on the ECM is around Manchester, where it starts to pivot and gives more prolonged snow to North Wales and the North Midlands.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

BA / Kold weather covering the ECM snow for Thursday pretty well, but just add to add even more detail:

By 6pm on Thursday, the whole of Wales has seen a snow event, and then all of England south of a line from Liverpool to Norwich (except Devon/Cornwall).

More marginal for Somerset, Dorset and parts of Hampshire, as well as some coastal areas with the wind blowing from offshore.

Also one final detail!

May start as light rain for SE part of the country, but it rather depends on time of day it arrives, any faster or slower than it is currently on the ECM and that may not be an issue, but as the front rolls on temperatures drop within the front through evaporative cooling and transitions to wet snow probably 1-2hrs after the light rain starts.

Of course, this is but one run and its well worth remembering its on the southern edge of the current range, though it has to be said the range has somewhat shrunk and edged southwards anyway today.

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I don’t think those towards the south coast Dorset west should give up hope yet of some snow .

The ECM does have an onshore flow but then as the low pivots those areas west then pick up an offshore n ne flow.

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Looking at latest Euro 4 snow charts for Tues/Wed it looks rather marginal for many with DP's around 0

More specifically for NW England Cheshire may just get a wintry mix though Lancashire should do better.

If you are in the more Western and Southern areas of NW England we may well do much better from snow showers that follow on behind than the actual front.

Certainly that is what the latest Euro 4 snowfall/snow accum charts depict.

19012912_2812.gif19012915_2812.gif19012918_2812.gif

19012918_2812.gif

Plenty of gaps in above chart for snow cover after the front has passed through.

But DP's rapidly fall away behind and Cheshire gap snow shower are predicted beginning early hours wed and continuing through the morning

19013003_2812.gif19013006_2812.gif19013009_2812.gif19013012_2812.gif

Which makes for a better accumulation chart by Wed afternoon for NW England, especially those places that missed out.

19013012_2812.gif

 

EDIT

Getting really miffed with images not displaying correctly - maybe a server issue?

Edited by Mucka

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I’m still not overly convinced on Thursday - looks to be too much mild air wrapped in to produce all this heavy snow mentioned? Happy to be proved entirely wrong here.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I don’t think those towards the south coast Dorset west should give up hope yet of some snow .

The ECM does have an onshore flow but then as the low pivots those areas west then pick up an offshore n ne flow.

We never give up hope, it’s all we’ve got😩😩🤣🤣

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