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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Yeah ice cold, uppers are miles away from what was being shown a few days ago, from gfs this run is great for the Scottish ski industry though! 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    21 minutes ago, IDO said:

    This run introduces the Siberian High to the game from early on right through the run, 1050 from around D9:

    gfseu-0-300.thumb.png.40282604b89cdfc6b06f7f93bf6a37f3.png

    That block means the trough is not going to drift east, so repeated discharge from the Canadian lobe with 24/7 cold uppers and plenty of snow.

    Another good run...

    We always know we're in the game when you're ramping...

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Faster and faster... as the models shake off the US storm hangover, they realise they’ve been getting a bit lazy with the late week pace of transitions forced by the upward AAM surge and aided by the reducing mean zonal flow.

    So the potential exists to establish the main Euro trough by the weekend. Yes, I know, potential again - but it’s decent grade and in any case, the odds of a cold flow brcome exceptionally high soon into the folllowing week. It’s just a matter of how quickly it can be established.

    Yeah I was thinking this is getting faster and faster into the transition towards a cold flow, the repeat and rinse set-up now progged by the models may not be the A* grade cold and snow some are looking for, but I'd say its a solid B and with the potential for it to be pushed up further.

    12z GFS never quite makes it but I think its being a little stingy with the Arctic area and high pressure, we are basically back to neutral by 300hrs, which given the amplified pattern in the pacific and also the attempts from the Azores high on the other side seems a little unrealistic to me.

    Once again, people really do need to forget those runs from the GFS which went bombastic, they were a once in 5-10 year type model forecast...its not realistic to compare any model run to those runs and expect the same thing.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    I think we will be second guessing the models again very soon as to the track of the Atlantic low at around 120h and strength and alignment of any Atlantic ridge ahead of it.

    gensnh-11-1-120.png

    Seen above far West of Greenland it already has many different outcomes withing GFS ensembles but on the whole 12z set seem to be more amplified with a potent Northerly beginning to set in as soon as around 144 possible.

    gensnh-8-1-144.pnggensnh-8-1-168.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
    40 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    It could be very long and very hard this winter.

    I'm glad you've stated your position Pete.??

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    7 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

    I'm glad you've stated your position Pete.??

    He’s not been able to get long and hard for the last ten winters . ??. ???

    Sorry ed ?

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Good post. The US event will probably result in about 24 hours of a milder air source, but no more than that....and a delay to the overall transition to a sustained cold feed of about 72 hours give or take.

    If we hadn’t had those snowmageddon runs on Friday then this evolution would have been seen as perfectly acceptable after the trough dropped into place. The problem is, as always, keeping expectations in check and maintaining a focus on the direction of travel. EC monthly charts always had the heart of the cold arriving 29th to 10th with scope for extension beyond that.

    I'm actually quite impressed with some of the models as they are moving the cold forward and we never really lose the whole displacing trough situation that we currently have, though most of the models do look like they are gradually taking down colder air each time.

    GFS ensembles by the way are EVEN more progressive with building in the Azores high and the SE motion of the upper low....and I though that as it is the ops are a little overprogressive!

    PS- watch for shortwaves in this set-up, they may well end being our friend in a cyclonic troughing set-up. It was a pretty common thing to happen between 2003-2006 I seem to remember.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    12z GFS OP is the type of run where I'd expect plenty of troughs and features to pop up closer to the time, its a pretty cyclonic flow and these tend not to be picked up too well until day-4/5.

    Nothing to be unhappy about...imagine this was all that was on the horizon for the next 15 days...

    CFSR_1_1998021118_1.thumb.png.31d429a133754c4dde3c478b75bb73af.png

    That pattern held for 15 days...so just a little perspective on what we are seeing guys!!

    Oh, its not a disaster by any means and as we go further into Feb something may pop up. I do think there is an expectation on here though that its just a matter of time which feels a bit too optimistic to me. The next couple of weeks will be the sort of cold spell that most people outside of this forum don't even notice.

    As for that chart, as much as I like cold and snow I'll be a very happy person if we were to see that after mid March! 

    Still, nobody on here can know for certain what will transpire so hopefully by the morning the beast will be in sight.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS 12z shows most parts averaging out closer to average over the 7-day period as a whole

    ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.2ea9d43b4e1ad9b22b7c4155ce928072.png

    D7 isn't as mild as it was on the 00z with some cooler air filtering into the far north and parts of the west

    ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.a113526166ffc2ec3bed448202c5e379.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    He not been able to get long and hard for the last ten winters . ??. ???

    Sorry ed ?

    I'm so glad you're only pulling my leg!?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex
    37 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    It looks remarkably close to Washington DC ?

    Looks like even the atmosphere weather has had enough of Trump!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Good post. The US event will probably result in about 24 hours of a milder air source, but no more than that....and a delay to the overall transition to a sustained cold feed of about 72 hours give or take.

    If we hadn’t had those snowmageddon runs on Friday then this evolution would have been seen as perfectly acceptable after the trough dropped into place. The problem is, as always, keeping expectations in check and maintaining a focus on the direction of travel. EC monthly charts always had the heart of the cold arriving 29th to 10th with scope for extension beyond that.

    Can I ask and this is a genuine question, what happens if another storm hits the us then will we be back to square one again with all good looking charts getting closer only to change when they get to like 5 days? It may sound dumb but I really am interested in this.

    i no longer term all sounds great but it will be March before we no it and it has been a pretty poo winter so far. Just curious 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The strength of the cold on the mean grows the deeper you go into run. ??

    62CAD336-9890-452C-AEC7-526A19CCE124.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    Gfs parra not so keen on the ridging,any ideas why???

    The 12z para hasn';t yet run far enough to really establish any northern blocking or any kind, though it is a little flatter in all fairness at least through to 216hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    At D12 we can see the general consensus to the upcoming pattern with variations on that theme:

    gens_panel_iav1.pnggens-21-0-288.thumb.png.5a60227d7f507090a6c0bf8cbc6fd799.png

    The mean uppers are good^^^

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    I really wish those GFS snow charts were hidden behind a paywall..

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    The 12z para hasn';t yet run far enough to really establish any northern blocking or any kind, though it is a little flatter in all fairness at least through to 216hrs.

    It's flatter after 160hrs.i thought it was the upgraded gFS and was getting plaudits a few weeks ago???

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

    I really wish those GFS snow charts were hidden behind a paywall..

    That would be even worse!  - you would get people talking about depths and then others accusing them of telling lies etc.

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