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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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52 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Really am bemused by some of you on here constantly looking for breakdowns in far fi, the cold has only just arrived with snow to come this week but your looking at it all blowing away with ease in fi and taking it as gospel, it’s all going to chop and change so it’s completely irrelevant and pretty sad if you ask me

Post of the day, well said  😉

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The main action areas on EURO4 this evening are the North West, parts of Yorkshire, most of Ireland / N Ireland, most high ground just about anywhere - and a curious Bristol Channel streamer running through N Devon and Dorset!

19013012_2812.gif

For tomorrow night's event, looks like EURO4 is moving towards the ARPEGE / AROME solution. If the ECM follows, I think we can assume there won't be a big lowland snow event from this away from the NW. 

I did say on Saturday that less than 1 in 10 forecast channel lows verify, and that looks like becoming true this time too. 

Edited by Man With Beard

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6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It was far less of a wintry mix on previous updates. It was mostly snow.

Defiantly looked like there was more pink in the mix, are we on a thin line for temperatures ...between snow & rain? Also read in a previous post we could do with the precipitation hitting later in the day than early for more of us to be included in the possibility of snow. 

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1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

UKMO 144Z  has a large Northern  Siberian high developing as does ICON which goes on to develop it more so at 180Z

image.thumb.png.c1d85d813a160802458fafddb38caa1a.png

image.thumb.png.112001253b9e81ecd343e6aae534bdb3.png1060mB (is that a record Norris?)

GFS flails around miserably as per the norm with any HLB

image.thumb.png.c38a7cce3569d85c2bf1d05ffdf2398a.png

whoosh it was gone

image.thumb.png.c19faf7f006df4919d2ca192eae04d69.png

 

The record for a Siberian high is 1083.8 MB which occurred at the end of December 1968. I remember trying to convince a colleague it was a high we were plotting on the circumpolar chart and not a low as only the last three digits of the value were coded and plotted. 

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

The main action areas on EURO4 this evening are the North West, parts of Yorkshire, most of Ireland / N Ireland, most high ground just about anywhere - and a curious Bristol Channel streamer running through N Devon and Dorset!

 19013012_2812.gif

Obligatory reminder that Euro 4 snow depth charts fail to take into account thawing very well, so whilst that amount may fall it will not be anything like actual depth unless there's no thawing.

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I await surprises on tomorrows front ….i see the latest fax has found a warm sector ahead of it and we may be relying on the trough following the CF to bring any snowfall

never been confident on it and i remain of that mindset.

now to see what ec does with Thursday ……..

Edited by bluearmy

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1 minute ago, SomersetBeer said:

Defiantly looked like there was more pink in the mix, are we on a thin line for temperatures ...between snow & rain? Also read in a previous post we could do with the precipitation hitting later in the day than early for more of us to be included in the possibility of snow. 

Think it will be pot luck. A bit of altitude always helps but snow will be more likely where the heaviest bursts of precipitation are, which is very difficult to predict.

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56 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Really am bemused by some of you on here constantly looking for breakdowns in far fi, the cold has only just arrived with snow to come this week but your looking at it all blowing away with ease in fi and taking it as gospel, it’s all going to chop and change so it’s completely irrelevant and pretty sad if you ask me

And to add of course if FI was so believable we would all be snowed in in a 1947 style Narnia😉

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ECM going for the elongated low Thursday, lots of snow potential from this for Central and Southern areas.

image.thumb.jpg.41f6af93d605f2081b6d3751165f19fd.jpg

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Just now, shaky said:

Absolute beauty from ecm at 72 hours!!

Aye rugby ball shaped low, unsure of precip though, looks a bit south? maybe not reaching this far north

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM going for the elongated low Thursday, lots of snow potential from this for Central and Southern areas.

image.thumb.jpg.41f6af93d605f2081b6d3751165f19fd.jpg

Hope your right MP , Oxon could do well

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

That...

Is a perfect chart for snow...

EF51F825-7C1D-407C-A665-1048A52E68E9.thumb.png.28a2042cdc8dd5d11db934756789e134.png

For YOU that is!!!!! ;) 

I'm guessing those north of Birmingham would prefer a little nudge from the south. 

I can feel the nudging from the bottom and the top of this low up and down the country right now!!

Also I note pressure down to 965mb, that's quite deep for a slider!

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The GFS 12z ensembles showing some big spikes for tomorrow evenings precipitation with the op one of the top enders. Hope most of it is snow!

02108A3C-8EA6-4CA1-BAFF-7F3FF1F8B49D.png

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye rugby ball shaped low, unsure of precip though, looks a bit south? maybe not reaching this far north

I think the joyous reaction in here tells us the Northern extent of the snow 😂

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If anyone has the PPN type ECM charts (Not those ridiculous ones), the ones Nick F puts up, that would be great please.

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

now to see what ec does with Thursday ……..

For the south it is exceptional, snow would be probable almost to the coast on that one!

As Steve said its elongated and around 965mbs at 72hrs. That is actually pretty much exactly the shape of low I was thinking about a few days ago and hoping would emerge.

Does however need to be remembered that it is at the extreme end of the operational model spectrum when it comes to the shape of the low.

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Tbh after all the hype over the low that"what is heading into France" be glad to see the back of this Thurs low.its north,it's south,it's oval,it's stretched.its a sad state of affairs when coming to the end of January this is so far the highlight!!! Enjoy whatever or wherever you get.

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Am pretty certain thats an all snow event for south and midlands and east anglia!!

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Someone's got to get some snow out of the T96 chart, very unstable:

ECM1-96.GIF?28-0

Not much really, there is the decayed front which is still lingering around giving a little, there maybe rain showers but I can't tell due to looking at a snow map rather than precip map.

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Tbh after all the hype over the low that"what is heading into France" be glad to see the back of this Thurs low.its north,it's south,it's oval,it's stretched.its a sad state of affairs when coming to the end of January this is so far the highlight!!! Enjoy whatever or wherever you get.

Come on mate it wasn't a penalty, var or no var.

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