Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 12z moisture content higher for tomorrow (PM) due to the low closing off further west-

I suspect once the high res updates there will be surprises in terms of depths-

Again I refer to the UKMO which seems to have had the best grip of this ....

S

06z ECM also backed off the weakening trend, so good to see that may have reversed and we can go somewhat back to where we started

[MKN]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 12z moisture content higher for tomorrow (PM) due to the low closing off further west-

I suspect once the high res updates there will be surprises in terms of depths-

Again I refer to the UKMO which seems to have had the best grip of this ....

S

Yes noticeable difference on the accumulative charts. I dont think any of us expecting major snowfall tues into weds but 4-6cm covering over a decent size area would satisfy many. Especially with the risk of further snow thurs into fri. 

[IDO]

ICON precipitation @ 3 am 

[kold weather]

Angle on the front is a little closer to GFS on this run do not quite so good for far south.

However that may level out with a later arrival time.

[SMU]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Yes noticeable difference on the accumulative charts. I dont think any of us expecting major snowfall tues into weds but 4-6cm covering over a decent size area would satisfy many. Especially with the risk of further snow thurs into fri. 

Yes. Thats on a par with Euro 4 although I didnt see the 06Z

@shaky

60 Miles west probably translates to 20-30 miles further South on the frontal boundary Thurs... Although again I havent looked myself yet...

[tight isobar]

Icon-expansion and pep.

I'd expect a similar trend via other outs today/tmoz.

As mods get grip. 

Still some big upgrades Imo-for tmoz/weds-snow

Edited January 28, 2019 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

ICON precipitation @ 3 am 

Surely the chart showing snow depth is more relevant??

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes. Thats on a par with Euro 4 although I didnt see the 06Z

@shaky

60 Miles west probably translates to 20-30 miles further South on the frontal boundary Thurs... Although again I havent looked myself yet...

06z was a bit more shaky and patchy with the coverage. Icon lines up well with 06z ECM, 1-2 inches generally with a jackpot zone close to 3.

[shaky]

Well after goin slightly west at 60 hours it ends up the same at 90 hours and midlands and wales gets a battering of snow lol!!

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Surely the chart showing snow depth is more relevant??

Lots of doubt as to snow/rain so prefer to see the potential if we get lucky?

Thursday: 

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Surely the chart showing snow depth is more relevant??

Icon clearly expecting a bit of a thaw as initially the snow cover amounts are higher at around +38 but by +52 this has thinned a fair bit.

[bluearmy]

Just now, IDO said:

Lots of doubt as to snow/rain so prefer to see the potential if we get lucky?

Thursday: 

Get lucky??

anyway, icon not stretching out the trough in a way we might expect from a Euro model ???

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Icon clearly expecting a bit of a thaw as initially the snow cover amounts are higher at around +38 but by +52 this has thinned a fair bit.

Unsurprising seen as temperatures are meant to be around 3/4/5c by day, would expect a fast thaw

Edited January 28, 2019 by Weathizard

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Unsurprising seen as temperatures are meant to be around 3/4/5c by day, would expect a fast thaw

Indeed, this is an awful lot of effort being expended on something that would have melted by 11am

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Unsurprising seen as temperatures are meant to be around 3/4/5c by day, would expect a fast thaw

Is it? temps look suppressed to me

[That ECM]

T138 on icon. Much better with heights towards scandi. One off or theme?

Edited January 28, 2019 by That ECM

[frosty ground]

935 Low on the ICON beyond day 6

920 now 

Edited January 28, 2019 by frosty ground

[MKN]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

935 Low on the ICON beyond day 6

920 now 

I think the icon may be broken

[PolarWarsaw]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Arpege  brings in the Tuesday  front much sooner  infact is in central parts around 9-10am   then for Thursday gives most of Wales Midlands and the  North  (peaks) around 15-20cm  

 

Be interesting to see where this ends up. 

One thing is for sure, that is only going south and west from this point, so if you are sweet spotting currently, ignore It until T6.

My current jackpot zone would be a line from Cardiff eastwards through somewhere like Northampton + Milton Keynes. Patchy snow cover north of that with potential for a dry zone north of somewhere between Stoke and Birmingham. 

Lots to change between now and then.

[Man With Beard]

Some pretty extreme snow totals by Saturday on ARGEPE 12Z (UK View not updated yet)

mainly due to a wrap-around on Friday/Saturday lingering in the areas highlighted

 

[Sky Full]

13 minutes ago, IDO said:

Lots of doubt as to snow/rain so prefer to see the potential if we get lucky?

Thursday: 

That must be an amazing piece of programming to separate the pattern into FIVE distinct types of precipitation!  I don't even understand the differences - assuming 'verglas' is sleet (?) what are 'brouillard' and 'orage'?

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

That must be an amazing piece of programming to separate the pattern into FIVE distinct types of precipitation!  I don't even understand the differences - assuming 'verglas' is sleet (?) what are 'brouillard' and 'orage'?

brouillard = Fog, orage = Thunderstorm, verglas - ice

Edited January 28, 2019 by Updated_Weather

[snowhope]

brouillard - I seem to remember from GCSE that this is French for Fog.

[minus86BriJ]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

935 Low on the ICON beyond day 6

920 now  

 

Is that an indication of the high ridging north, the western edge winding the low up like a spinning top keeping the low in situ?

[weirpig]

Quite some differences with the models  even at this late stage regarding Tuesday  Arome 12z  also brings in the front earlier than anticipated  10am into central parts