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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
9 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

Hi Chaps.. Is there a website we can view like Snow Means aross the suites of ECM/GFS. Obviously can view the GFS/GFSP/ECM but just wondered if easier chart/graph form and where i could view. Sure i've seen it before on here. Cheers.

Try this ( just change to your loc)

https://meteologix.com/ie/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/snow

Edited by cobbett
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24 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Latest icon 9z run  showing Tuesdays snow at 4pm   More of a wintry mix at this point  South of the Midlands

image.thumb.png.b4ac19fd3e1e7425b6f6404a1633280d.png

Looks like hardly anything all in all looking at that chart. Also for the midlands north looks good for high ground.

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
35 minutes ago, shaky said:

How far north does it reach!!derby nottingham?

I think the snow zone is roughly the Thames to the Trent. Maybe slightly south of that. But who knows? 

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Thats the site i had been looking at a while back, Thanks!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, Downpour said:

I was wondering about this. It is true that these sort of systems always end up a few hundred miles south of where they were initially progged. I would hope the models has some sort of learning mechanism whereby they counterbalanced their northerly bias, but it would seem not. 

Not always, but on balance they error more to the right of their direction of travel than left. Not sure why that it is though. You also see a similar thing with hurricanes, they often end up to the right of expected landfall place, though the models have been slowly improving on that one and the errors aren't as bad as they once were.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Looks like hardly anything all in all looking at that chart. Also for the midlands north looks good for high ground.

The figures are per hour, it isn't moving that quickly so that a location can be in their snow zone for a few hours. The fly in the ointment is that temperatures in general may just be above freezing, so how much lays is open to question.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
56 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC 06z rolling out, more elongated with Thursday's low and ppn further south. Midlands on pivot point

Thats great news for those across the midlands/south GP-

As i said earlier, thur far from settled just yet but i for one wouldn't be suprised to see even more corrections south- which of course will have a knock on effect with the colder air extending further south.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
49 minutes ago, ptow said:

Well, a hedgehog crossing the road brings Reading to a standstill, so I imagine 2cm of snow will as well

At  work they asking me how  bad could it  get this  week

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Not great for those of us in the North Midlands. Tuesday’s system trended towards a wintry mix here. Now Thursday’s is tending to the south of here. Of course, that would go down well on here, with the majority of posters living further south.

I think you will do OK tomorrow Matt-

WRT thurs- i don't mind who gets the snow TBH, i have never been a fan of IMBY posts as they are best suited to the regionals, the 12z runs should offer better guidance now for thur..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Exactly, the snow amounts/timing is still totally undecided....even for tomorrow. Let alone Thursday. Best to just expect nothing, then anything you do get is a bonus. ??

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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
13 minutes ago, tinybill said:

At  work they asking me how  bad could it  get this  week

How many hedgehogs in Reading?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I think you will do OK tomorrow Matt-

WRT thurs- i don't mind who gets the snow TBH, i have never been a fan of IMBY posts as they are best suited to the regionals, the 12z runs should offer better guidance now for thur..

Yer I think pretty much most people will see snow at some point this week but obviously some will see more than others . The real interest is further on I think with those east /northeast winds the meto are so bullishly taliking about .

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

There is a thread now open dedicated to this week snow prospects and much more suited to who/who isn't/ and how much..

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m

The BBC weather forecast still promising for the South East later on around the evening Rush hour a few CMs almost anywhere.. Exact Track still not nailed. Lots of change is still very possible as the low develops out in the Atlantic. 

Edited by Yorkshirepudding
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Icon on the pivot and extent northward.

19020100_2806.gif

19013121_2806.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

What I was wanting to say was,

INCREDIBLE, look what Simon King says towards the end. 

Expect SSW cold toward end of the season. 

 

That will I'll be a carbon copy of down here in Somerset last year. 

Three big dumpings of snow . Especially March then start of April. Powder snow too. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47006603

 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
32 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Icon on the pivot and extent northward.

19020100_2806.gif

19013121_2806.gif

Err they forgot to put the snow in...

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
29 minutes ago, Nick F said:

 

E5140795-62C1-4925-AA66-3799498B3154.thumb.png.bd81e7cd72365b6639f0d3201cc0b168.png

Potential this could build westwards through February and perhaps have an increasing effect on our weather, certainly signs that it will affect wave train patterns, we just need to the TPV over Canada ease off its imprint over the N Atlantic, signs are this could occur towards mid-month, but with the usual caveats.

What 30 year average is being used?

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 12z moisture content higher for tomorrow (PM) due to the low closing off further west-

I suspect once the high res updates there will be surprises in terms of depths-

Again I refer to the UKMO which seems to have had the best grip of this ....

S

I was about to say, the band does look wider and heavier on the ICON 12z. Better for evaporative cooling.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
10 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

What 30 year average is being used?

1981-2010

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 12z moisture content higher for tomorrow (PM) due to the low closing off further west-

I suspect once the high res updates there will be surprises in terms of depths-

Again I refer to the UKMO which seems to have had the best grip of this ....

S

And thursdays low further west already at 60 hours!!

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