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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

Anyway...a tri lobe situ remains a distinctive notion..

And would with the given-plots aid our part..

As a direct split...has crucial placement issues..

Moreso in regards to deep tap into accumulated polewards cold...

Still on a comfy seat on the....rollercoaster!!

gfsnh-0-234.png

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33 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Better GFS with the Northerly coming in much faster compared with the 6z

GFS.thumb.png.b719fb312a4634a0b02bcfbea8bd1f11.png

Riding up to Greenland forcing the second low back NW and into the Greenland shredder 

Another shapely vortex ?

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Different Arctic evolution this time and the PV attempts to pull itself back together and there is no arctic high at all in place by 300hrs which is a massive difference from recent runs, though there is ridging from pacfic so maybe it will reform around 360hrs.. Not bad at all, but a little contrast compared to the very similar 00z and 06z.

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37 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Better GFS with the Northerly coming in much faster compared with the 6z

GFS.thumb.png.b719fb312a4634a0b02bcfbea8bd1f11.png

Riding up to Greenland forcing the second low back NW and into the Greenland shredder 

It looks remarkably close to Washington DC ?

Edited by Summer Sun
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All looks a bit meh to me. A couple of weeks of rather cold weather coming up but nothing out of the ordinary. Its the sort of pattern where for most its cold enough to snow except when stuff is falling out of the sky. Still no meaningful signal for HLB over the next couple of weeks and without that forget any deep cold. Ignore the GFS snow charts as away from high ground it is mostly just going to be cold rain. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

All looks a bit meh to me. A couple of weeks of rather cold weather coming up but nothing out of the ordinary. Its the sort of pattern where for most its cold enough to snow except when stuff is falling out of the sky. Still no meaningful signal for HLB over the next couple of weeks and without that forget any deep cold. Ignore the GFS snow charts as away from high ground it is mostly just going to be cold rain. 

 

Did you forget to take your Prozac today? 

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Deep FI shows the one mahor risk with this rinse and repeat set-up, that eventually one of them id going to take hold of the central Atlantic and your going to end in a SW airflow no matter how strong the northern blocking becomes. Arctic set-up isn't as good on this run either though.

Still, decent length cold spell emerging...

I think some have been badly spoiled by some of those runs GFS was briefly pumping out...they literally were all time great charts, one of them was in my top 5 model run in the last 15 years...and I've seen some real crazy looking runs!

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1 minute ago, Jason M said:

No, but you clearly took your happy pills ?

12z GFS OP is the type of run where I'd expect plenty of troughs and features to pop up closer to the time, its a pretty cyclonic flow and these tend not to be picked up too well until day-4/5.

Nothing to be unhappy about...imagine this was all that was on the horizon for the next 15 days...

CFSR_1_1998021118_1.thumb.png.31d429a133754c4dde3c478b75bb73af.png

That pattern held for 15 days...so just a little perspective on what we are seeing guys!!

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2 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

We've been hearing about background noise since November now. It's just that; background noise.

We've also seen 'decent' charts (from a cold perspective) which have not come to anything. Hope springs eternal - actually, I'd rather Spring springs eternal! 

Well more fool you if you expected winter wonderland from Dec 1st , the noise was focussed on something called the SSW which was why comments of a back loaded winter were made . It was always thought we would have to wait until possibly Mid to late Jan into Feb ……….so here we are.

Surely you cant really think every eye candy chart will come off , I'm afraid chasing the dream happens every winter and yet we still come back.

 

Enjoy the next chase , which will start next weekend and IMO be fruitful for many 

 

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