Cold hunt - models and chat

[Stonethecrows]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Seems to me Met office are seeing things differently that some of us.. updated their weather warning further south and east also added an ice risk

Actually this is the met office current warnings, clearly not just the south as you have posted.

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

where's frosty when ya need him, love that guys enthusiasm, enjoy 

I'm here, as enthusiastic as ever and trying not to be disruptive..

it's weeks like this that go a long way to making up for all the dross before it..models show a risk of disruptive snow this week..what's not to like about that!!

[mulzy]

Regional threads are there for IMBYism.  I want everyone (including Knocker) to get their fair share of snow.  We don't want a North vs Midlands vs South debate in here.

Personally, I believe nothing is settled yet.  Even tomorrow's precipitation is not nailed down.  However, it does look like the front is slowing down and possibly weakening.    

[tight isobar]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

After having a little browse through. 

 

Icon gfs 

The sweetspot is right over by back garden in north london

Bit of a surprise im in shock

 

As it stands your correct.

Still afew Changes 2 be deciphered

And we know the devilisinthedetail

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah your probably right mate. I've lost count over the years how many times these type of set-ups shift further south nearer the time! 

Deep down I'm kind of anticipating the southward  corrections but live in hope lol. Was pleasantly suprised this morning when checking the charts though, were still well in the game.

A southward correction looks the likely scenario.... as per usual.

Not getting into the Thur/fri Situ as again big changes likely.

[Singularity]

The eastern flank disturbance is a little stronger on the 06z - a step toward the Euros and the reason the front has a bit more trouble moving NNE. It also distorts the surface flow  into England sufficiently that it remains easterly enough to keep drawing from a frigid Germany through midnight Friday, before turning back more easterly during Friday morning.

  

The main inhibitor to snow is then the dew points;

Interesting how some negative DP air is wrapped into the LP circulation on this run, setting up a new boundary that develops further through Friday with snow widely across Wales and western England. The 00z ECM had similar developments but didn't develop the boundary as much and had more of a NE angle to the flow, which was less effective for the southwest.

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:

Actually this is the met office current warnings, clearly not just the south as you have posted.

I’ve changed it - it didn’t update for me.

[Skullzrulerz]

Lots of talk regarding this week and possible snow falls etc 

What I haven't seen as such is anyone about anything longer term ?

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Really? I seem to remember the NAE becoming the EURO4 too.. in any event, EURO4 is one of the best short range models out there, Met office often using a blend of EURO4/UKV

I am sure its a differnt model, the Euro4 replaced the NAE, and as that is the model shown on weatheronline people probably thought it was just an upgrade but on the Met Office website, it does say retired, it looked to me like the NAE overdid the area where light snow falled, the Euro4 with its better resolution solved that problem,

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Lots of talk regarding this week and possible snow falls etc 

What I haven't seen as such is anyone about anything longer term ?

Because Tuesday and Thursday still isn’t resolved yet anything past that is FI

[MATTWOLVES 3]

So much for an end to inyabackyardism!!!! Come on folks, if you bring this system any further south it will end up in Spain!! How's about just firming up on the snow potential and intensity so fourth, rather than its in my back yard. Folk on here are gonna go ballistic if they miss out this week, I'm now counting down for the, winter is over posts!!!! 

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Lots of talk regarding this week and possible snow falls etc 

What I haven't seen as such is anyone about anything longer term ?

Safe to say past +96 is far from nailed I think however milder than this current week looks to be slight favourite. 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Lots of talk regarding this week and possible snow falls etc 

What I haven't seen as such is anyone about anything longer term ?

ECM and gfs are not on the same page really but here is t180 gfs 06z plenty to ponder there

[ghoneym]

Here is my take on Tuesdays snow events using that trusty old Swiss HD model. 

By Tuesday morning the centre of the low pressure system is out in the bay of Biscay, West of Nantes.  Precipitation from the front reaching the Welsh Eastern coast is just starting to show.  The charts can be moved on in 1 hour time slots but I have done it in 2 hour time slots here to save posting too many charts.

 6am    8am (snow line from Cardiff to the North Penninies)

The snow line continues to track in a south easterly direction throughout the day.

 10am   12pm  

 2pm     4pm (rush hour should be interesting!)

 6pm   8pm  

Snow depth totals by Tuesday evening then. Just for bants.....

Wednesday could be an interesting day also with freezing for forecast across many parts of the UK from midday through to early evening, again, making rush hour and driving conditions extremely hazardous.

For my Scottish comrades, we await Thursday as I think this will bring some decent Snaw for us from the borders up through the central belt. Here's hoping !

[LeeSnowFan]

Good for All areas but more north

[northwestsnow]

Thurs is interesting, nothing settled as far as i'm concerned-

Plenty of time for it to all change 3 days away so not much point getting to hung up on sweet spots..

[kold weather]

Very much so Thursday is still up in the air.

What we are starting to come into agreement is the broad position of the LP. However what really will dictate where the snow is the shape of the low and any secondary depressions that work around the main low, and such features can crop up at relatively short range and so we may see a shift north or south still from where we are.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Good for All areas but more north

I though the M4 was straighter than that?

[TEITS]

Have to say at the moment the locations favoured are N Midlands/ W Midlands/Wales. The least favoured dare I say is E Anglia/SE.

This is simply due to several factors. The low on Tues was always likely to go SE of the UK and this has proved to be the case. We are dependant on snowfall via the front moving SE. This is likely to fizzle out as it heads SE.

End of the week/Weekend. Most could see snow, however the locations I mention could see it remain as snow. This is due to the flow becoming ENE,ly and the warming effects of the N Sea will reduce the risk of snow for many E areas and this includes N England (except hills).

 

The medium range continues to intrigue me and the outlook isn't going to be as flat and mild as the ECM suggests in my opinion. Big changes likely to occur in the medium range over the next 48hrs. Watch this space!!!

[Chesil View]

Bearing in mind the recent change in the met office warnings for tomorrow. I,d say that even tomorrow is still all to play for let alone. Thursday/Friday.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Bearing in mind the recent change in the met office warnings for tomorrow. I,d say that even tomorrow is still all to play for let alone. Thursday/Friday.

TBH i think tomorrow is pretty much nailed now, the front will move SE through the country dropping a few cm on its way- thur for sure is still up for grabs..

[Met4Cast]

I think given the huge spread on both the EPS/GEFS

It's impossible to call at the moment. Maybe a slight favouring towards "less cold" but I wouldn't want to put money on that. For me at the moment there's still no high latitude blocking/deep cold, so perhaps a continuation of lows sliding SEwards bringing an occasional snow risk, brief less cold blip this weekend.

[BlackburnChris]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I think given the huge spread on both the EPS/GEFS

It's impossible to call at the moment. Maybe a slight favouring towards "less cold" but I wouldn't want to put money on that. For me at the moment there's still no high latitude blocking/deep cold, so perhaps a continuation of lows sliding SEwards bringing an occasional snow risk, brief less cold blip this weekend.

Less Cold is a good sign to me , as it is probably hinting at High pressure building North close to the Uk which will give us long term gain. 

[Polar Maritime]

Please no more Meto warnings in here. Just Model discussion.

If anyone wants to open a thread up for snow chances this week to follow/discuss the event then that's no problem, Also Meto posts would be allowed in there. 

Regards.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[sorepaw1]

8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Have to say at the moment the locations favoured are N Midlands/ W Midlands/Wales. The least favoured dare I say is E Anglia/SE.

This is simply due to several factors. The low on Tues was always likely to go SE of the UK and this has proved to be the case. We are dependant on snowfall via the front moving SE. This is likely to fizzle out as it heads SE.

End of the week/Weekend. Most could see snow, however the locations I mention could see it remain as snow. This is due to the flow becoming ENE,ly and the warming effects of the N Sea will reduce the risk of snow for many E areas and this includes N England (except hills).

 

The medium range continues to intrigue me and the outlook isn't going to be as flat and mild as the ECM suggests in my opinion. Big changes likely to occur in the medium range over the next 48hrs. Watch this space!!!

Good post but i may stand to be corrected but the North Sea temp should help The Eastern side of the uk in terms of snow.

The coastal side of eastern uk is currently having snow showers on a NNW at 4.oC.

As i say good post and correct me where necessary. 

[Storme]

Been reading through. I live in East Midlands now, was Surrey this time last year. Just slightly NE of Loughborough. I am gonna call rain here. I am prepared to be found wrong, maybe a tiny dusting at best. 

I think, looking at the models I am just out of the sweet spot.