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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    39 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Steve to my suprise, I think the models still have it way further north than that. I would have the peak district derbyshire as current sweet spot thursday

    This is the 06z ICON

    somewhere in the mix there south/north Midlands-

    Not to much margin of error though for you guys...

    2E0F056B-77CD-460B-8596-E6F2A04DEB1A.thumb.png.ea9fa308a363d8666d1f48555957d539.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    ICON 06sz broadly again upto Libverpool-Hull line and not much further, jackpot is probably 30 miles south of that location where the front stops pivoting.

    Timing once again not the best for the south, though the angle of the frontal attack is now probably about 70-80% right for the south to get snow on that run. A 3-4hr delay would make the world of difference to us.

    Sweet spot on ICON somewhere between Derby and B'ham.

    Lichfield/Tamworth

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Mate if anyone was living in the midlands and walws i would be getting really excited now!!there could be some serious snowfall totals!!

    Good news, I am confident that people do live in those areas. ????

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    19 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Mate if anyone was living in the midlands and walws i would be getting really excited now!!there could be some serious snowfall totals!!

    Shaky, you get excited on here 24 hours a day, regardless of the weather ... lol....

    Knife edge time for me sat along the M4 corridor...will it, wont it?   

    Edited by beerandkebab
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The ICON much weaker band for Thursday compared with the 0z at the same time:

    iconeu_uk1-1-75-0.thumb.png.2556a3fef6567e15e8b5e505c2ec4bf0.pngiconeu_uk1-1-81-0.thumb.png.79e1dd22385738df7480980d55830947.png

    Peps up 3 hours later:

    2119045865_iconeu_uk1-1-81-0(1).thumb.png.5a981aebbd854e0f0d8c817a014e18ac.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    If we don't see a change in the eps by Wednesday, I expect the Met O long ranger will drop the idea or extend to the end of February.

    Yes, it might not get that far, although we might be spared that fate today given that there is a 46 out tonight, the GEFS are actually sometimes more sensitive to these kinds of FI changes, and the FI graph is decent at the end, plus the eps goes out a day less, so as long as they don't change the wording today, then i would give it another xx hours of modelling, at some point though there will be a cut off point, once the potential changes are well within range, the EPS will not be trumped by the GEFS so regardless of what the GEFS say, if the eps still say nitto then game over. That was a very long winded way of saying that the EPS need to come on board soon or its over - how soon i am not sure but it must be close.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    This is the 06z ICON

    somewhere in the mix there south/north Midlands-

    Not to much margin of error though for you guys...

    2E0F056B-77CD-460B-8596-E6F2A04DEB1A.thumb.png.ea9fa308a363d8666d1f48555957d539.png

    Yep. If that continues to trend southward, this area will potentially miss out on both snow events this week by a very small distance.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Just like big events before - A persistent signal from the ICON

    remember its not where the PPN gets to its where the main belt of heavy PPN falls

    Wales looks the worst effected again...

    B972962F-22CB-4636-8720-0E2DF6313C0E.thumb.png.61bd2611bbd24f116e5982883367159d.png

    Wales always seems to have more on the maps probably cos of the mountains as well steve!!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    4 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Wales always seems to have more on the maps probably cos of the mountains as well steve!!

    True

    mate

    GFS 06z notes are slower with Tuesdays PPN & adjusting around 50 miles west along the timeline - just a bit more to go !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    A very good summary from Jo this morning, no point in taking  current yellow zones as gospel at the moment, pretty sure a few Amber warning could show in next 24 hours, Thursday looking the more problematic event, but perhaps Wales in to Midlands and North West getting quite bad, either watly folk for the first time this winter, something actually to take note and get excited by, where's frosty when ya need him, love that guys enthusiasm, enjoy 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Aye, further west, could do with it a bit further west though, 3pm wintry mess I feel to start with

    prectypeuktopo.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    I'm not convinced the models are right re: Thursdays now. As we know these systems have a tendency to move Southwards as we get closer to the time. A few days ago it was a North Midlands event, today it's a central/South Midlands event with the ICON even bringing London into the risk zone, too. 

    I think the sweet spot will be Wales/South Midlands area, perhaps just N of the M4 corridor, wouldn't take much to bring Southern areas into the mix again though..

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Just like big events before - A persistent signal from the ICON

    remember its not where the PPN gets to its where the main belt of heavy PPN falls

    Wales looks the worst effected again...

    B972962F-22CB-4636-8720-0E2DF6313C0E.thumb.png.61bd2611bbd24f116e5982883367159d.png

    My inkling is as the front drags its feet into Wednesday morning, the SE, say Essex and Kent would be highly favoured for a decent covering too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Daniel Smith said:

    I'm not convinced the models are right re: Thursdays now. As we know these systems have a tendency to move Southwards as we get closer to the time. A few days ago it was a North Midlands event, today it's a central/South Midlands event with the ICON even bringing London into the risk zone, too. 

    I think the sweet spot will be Wales/South Midlands area, perhaps just N of the M4 corridor, wouldn't take much to bring Southern areas into the mix again though..

    Certainly still a chance you will be in the equation because although you are far south, you are far East as well, so with the Thursday event being negatively tilted...................

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

    I'm not convinced the models are right re: Thursdays now. As we know these systems have a tendency to move Southwards as we get closer to the time. A few days ago it was a North Midlands event, today it's a central/South Midlands event with the ICON even bringing London into the risk zone, too. 

    I think the sweet spot will be Wales/South Midlands area, perhaps just N of the M4 corridor, wouldn't take much to bring Southern areas into the mix again though..

    Mostly agree, apart from that it has the largest snowfall amounts over the North Midlands at the moment, not the South Midlands. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)

    So it seems the Icon against most other models in extent of the northwards extent of the heavy/meaningful precipitation thursday

    How accurate is this model? GFS at <80h should shawly have a good grasp on this. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    I'm not convinced the models are right re: Thursdays now. As we know these systems have a tendency to move Southwards as we get closer to the time. A few days ago it was a North Midlands event, today it's a central/South Midlands event with the ICON even bringing London into the risk zone, too. 

    I think the sweet spot will be Wales/South Midlands area, perhaps just N of the M4 corridor, wouldn't take much to bring Southern areas into the mix again though..

    That first paragraph is worth noting I think, the southern boundary has been slowly edging southwards each day over the last few days.

    I'd say sweet spot still likely a little further north. However the true hotspot maybe somewhere in Ireland, especially close to the LP center.

    Worth noting the 06z GFS is still going for the N-S wall of death for the south, unless that is at a different angle there'd be little to no snow south of M4.

    Also, GFS 06z shape is utterly at odds with most models at the moment which are starting to elongate the system somewhat.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    6z gfs brings larger swathes into the snow 

    with anywhere wales/nor mids/ rite down 2 south coast in firing line.

    Again some notable totals b4 she scamper of 2 the continent. 

    Tues/wed

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Aye, further west, could do with it a bit further west though, 3pm wintry mess I feel to start with

    prectypeuktopo.png

    GFS is slightly slower with Tuesday's front on this run, which increases the chances of snow falling more widely across Wales and the West Midlands (and still further east too).

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, it might not get that far, although we might be spared that fate today given that there is a 46 out tonight, the GEFS are actually sometimes more sensitive to these kinds of FI changes, and the FI graph is decent at the end, plus the eps goes out a day less, so as long as they don't change the wording today, then i would give it another xx hours of modelling, at some point though there will be a cut off point, once the potential changes are well within range, the EPS will not be trumped by the GEFS so regardless of what the GEFS say, if the eps still say nitto then game over. That was a very long winded way of saying that the EPS need to come on board soon or its over - how soon i am not sure but it must be close.

    To be fair Feb its been over every other day for the last two weeks according to your post so how can it still possibly be on?

    Edited by frosty ground
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