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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just a footnote as has been mentioned a few times now by me & a few others-

Following Thursdays Front expecting to reach the North Midlands based on GFS is very unlikely - South Midlands across to EA looks the Line maybe even the M4 the Northward extent...

The GFS is circular which is probably its downfall because the UKMO spreads the energy East & once it starts doing that its usually correct, 

remember an Eastward bias also becomes a Northward bias in this scenario  

The 2 short range models I will be using here is the HIRLAM & EURO 4...

Expect there to be much fun & games Tuesday ! 

What's your thoughts on Friday Steve? That T120 Fax looks promising!? 

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16 minutes ago, Fred Sykes said:

What's your thoughts on Friday Steve? That T120 Fax looks promising!? 

Sleet & snow in the south- decaying front draining away back South-

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ICON 00z creating yet more lift NE of the jet early doors creating more of a closed low over England Tues eve

Fine margins of change 00z first v18z

5DAEBA06-F0B1-4B77-90EA-3ED2179714FA.thumb.png.fad1f2564f386e7fcf27e88a26526906.pngF12FBBA4-6A37-4102-B480-886C73DF075A.thumb.png.c49435aa31453a7e8a6a253b527540e1.png

D7505280-055B-47B1-945E-F626874607A3.thumb.png.ca038a056baeb0996d84f8841cd269fa.pngBB92D45E-636B-446A-9587-402D8B7DFA57.thumb.png.ef1656dd59e0b382261ca02ed8f48fd3.png

Edited by Steve Murr

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Just to add to the analysis

00z 54 V 60 18z PPN accums

87733859-F749-49CB-8305-1C9A4152359B.thumb.png.5c5f32e8f2d717fb0c00b391ce0ab34c.pngA08420E4-85D3-46D9-9C75-D4A0B536010E.thumb.png.f893fcce8214dc8099167e325fc59a9e.png

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 00z creating yet more lift NE of the jet early doors creating more of a closed low over England Tues eve

Fine margins of change 00z first v18z

5DAEBA06-F0B1-4B77-90EA-3ED2179714FA.thumb.png.fad1f2564f386e7fcf27e88a26526906.pngF12FBBA4-6A37-4102-B480-886C73DF075A.thumb.png.c49435aa31453a7e8a6a253b527540e1.png

D7505280-055B-47B1-945E-F626874607A3.thumb.png.ca038a056baeb0996d84f8841cd269fa.pngBB92D45E-636B-446A-9587-402D8B7DFA57.thumb.png.ef1656dd59e0b382261ca02ed8f48fd3.png

Morning Steve, 

If you have a moment could you briefly explain what impact a closed low would have on our current expectations re: Tue/Wed.

 

Edited by Mizzle
Corrected an autocorrect. 🤨

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GFS 0z snow zone- further N than ICON

image.thumb.png.f62b8f0289e6e2b307f8196512553ce5.png

image.thumb.png.6ff14a53314db92925bfaadae5267a29.png

Edited by CreweCold

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS 0z snow zone- further N than ICON

image.thumb.png.f62b8f0289e6e2b307f8196512553ce5.png

image.thumb.png.6ff14a53314db92925bfaadae5267a29.png

No snow for the south looking at those charts. 

So just want to say if we can't get any then  good luck for you northerners hope it gives you a dumping. Enjoy . 

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This morning we have ICON furthest S with a more 'squashed' low- snow sliding across Midlands and CS England

UKMO- middle ground. Snow most probably across Midlands and S parts of N England

GFS- furthest N with snow N Midlands and N England...reaching into Scotland.

Perhaps the UKMO the most pragmatic option at this moment in time?

Anyone got UKMO precipitation charts?

 

Edited by CreweCold

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GFS is very different to the other Models , gives Northern England 3 days of Snow , where Icon gives a few hours .

 

gfs-16-96.png

Edited by BlackburnChris

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10 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

GFS is very different to the other Models , gives Northern England 3 days of Snow , where Icon gives a few hours .

 

gfs-16-96.png

It's also going to try and give us an easterly

image.thumb.png.c3e9f80d90b871217df93150b0930ea4.png

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's also going to try and give us an easterly

image.thumb.png.c3e9f80d90b871217df93150b0930ea4.png

Yep, FI must be less than 24 hours at the minute.

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boom  with the over night  updates  and   with a bone chilling eastly and snow coming off the north sea what  more  would  you whant:cold::drinks:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

gfs-2-264.png

Edited by tinybill

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23 minutes ago, tinybill said:

boom  with the over night  updates  and   with a bone chilling eastly and snow coming off the north sea what  more  would  you whant:cold::drinks:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

gfs-2-264.png

For it to T+24 😎

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21 minutes ago, tinybill said:

with a bone chilling eastly and snow coming off the north sea what  more  would  you whant

I'd appreciate 850s at or below minus 10C, for one. Sleety slush, cold rain and "the wrong type of snow" are very much a risk on lower ground.

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Still a fair bit of rain as well as snow expected going by the the 00z Euro4. The snow cover looks decent by +48 but I'm not convinced it's entirely accurate given its showing rain to begin with.

19012921_2800.gif

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1 minute ago, halny said:

I'd appreciate 850s at or below minus 10C, for one. Sleety slush, cold rain and "the wrong type of snow" are very much a risk on lower ground.

You are referring to the wrong "wrong type of snow" The "wrong type of the snow" is the famous Feb 91 dry snow that train companies used as an excuse for train delays and cancellations. That'll be  actually for snow lovers the  "right type of snow" and their "wrong type of snow" would be the wet snow that struggles if at all to accumulate. However if comes down at a rate then the "wrong type of snow" can become the right "wrong type of snow" and for transport, heavy  wet snow falls that rapidly accumulate can  become the wrong "right type of snow"

 

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7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

You are referring to the wrong "wrong type of snow" The "wrong type of the snow" is the famous Feb 91 dry snow that train companies used as an excuse for train delays and cancellations. That'll be  actually for snow lovers the  "right type of snow" and their "wrong type of snow" would be the wet snow that struggles if at all to accumulate. However if comes down at a rate then the "wrong type of snow" can become the right "wrong type of snow" and for transport, heavy  wet snow falls that rapidly accumulate can  become the wrong "right type of snow"

 

That's sorted that one out then 😂🌨️🌨️

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WOWZERS!!!

All i can say is absolutely STONKING 00z runs-

EC looks an absolute peach !!

Best of luck to all for the next 4 or 5 days, i hope as many of my Net Weather friends get as much snow as possible!!

EC 96 is just amazing from where im sat..

image.thumb.png.98e9dff6a1d98c5cc57de904286d4039.png

850 temps -1 to -3 for the area in which the main bulk of precipitation would be.  Rain sleet and snow at varying stages. 

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Poor runs this morning across the board this morning when thinking of the longer term.

Mid Atlantic ridge much weaker and the Atlantic systems coming in 

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ECM has similar shaped Thursday low to Icon, but a smidgen further N... 50-100 miles or so. 

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Very good runs this morning in the shorter term. 

Models have again shifted to a more elongated look. Should that happen then the south would join in with snow as the band moves up!

Tuesday looks locked in finally, now to lock in Thursday...

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