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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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So it’s looking like that milder blip may not even happen now. It does generally look like staying pretty cold. How cold? Who knows atm

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Nice, let’s see if we can count something like this down over the next 3 days, still not sure I can see any HLB forming thou

70BB9EBA-50D7-4ED3-ACCB-EA156FD0BCEA.png

If you look at the most recent icon run it is showing high pressure building over Scandinavia by Friday however it doesn’t go beyond that day so we will just have to wait and see!

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Still no decent northern blocking being shown on any of the 12z models. Scotland will do ok out of brief northerly winds as low pressures move to the UK's east but the majority of the UK won't see much 

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7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Nice, let’s see if we can count something like this down over the next 3 days, still not sure I can see any HLB forming thou

70BB9EBA-50D7-4ED3-ACCB-EA156FD0BCEA.png

No you won't get that just yet, the pattern is most dominated by the Azores high riding in (see, it can be our friend as well sometimes!) and trough disruptions from the PV lobe over the NE America. Think that's probably going to be a trend for a little while to come.

ps, don't expect any real northern blocking just yet, the pattern isn't being dictated by that, very much a horizon thing that but it is moving forwards and the trough disruption SE ids a key element of that.

 

Edited by kold weather
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Attempt number 2 going the way of number 1

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

images (4).jpeg

1448452105_gfsnh-0-138(3).thumb.png.de3229d28e7d53f22ad0b5b3079b3a63.png

Is that what's known as a PE tight isobar!!!!

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Just now, warrenb said:

Attempt number 2 going the way of number 1

I think that's expected at this point - Rinse and repeat type pattern until we see more sustainable height rises, probably sometime early February.

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1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Attempt number 2 going the way of number 1

Not entirely sure what you mean by that? It’s certainly not going wrong this time! Caveat that it is at day 9 lol

2F314ADD-B650-4E1C-B2AB-A59B41F9E954.png

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

images (4).jpeg

1448452105_gfsnh-0-138(3).thumb.png.de3229d28e7d53f22ad0b5b3079b3a63.png

may-lol.gif

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Not entirely sure what you mean by that? It’s certainly not going wrong this time! Caveat that it is at day 9 lol

2F314ADD-B650-4E1C-B2AB-A59B41F9E954.png

That's the 6z chart

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What we need is the euro trough to drain the Canadian lobe. This would allow the azores to back north west

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11 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

 

Cock.png.1479b4ef8a35cb6b6532e1e0fb8d837d.png

You win👌 Quality post🤣🤣🤣

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2 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:


NE USA on the receiving end of the white stuff.

 

images (5).jpeg

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I wouldn’t be drawing too many conclusions from the later output .

A lot going on in the background but the upstream pattern does have strong support. The uncertainty there is really only how the shortwaves moving over the top of the west coast Ridge effect the PV lobe .

The jet track looks to be se so any milder conditions will be short lived and things might get a lot more interesting .

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15 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just reminded me must put the 2 Veg on to go with the Sunday Meat 

Looks like its lost its other 2 legs.lol

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3 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Another Icelandic LP unfortunately doesn't let the high to establish North mid Atlantic. 

Slowly does it, as plenty of others have said the other thing that is likelt  keep happening for a little while yet is lows forming from the PV lobe and skewing off to the SE and our general shores. Its a coldish pattern for most and still presents opportunities, which yesterday looked like may have had to wait until northern blocking really kicks in, which may still be a ways away yet (aka 15-20 days IMO, I'm siming for 5-10th Feb ). Until then I suspect pattern maybe a broad rinse and repeat to a degree. If we get lucky could come in earlier, but that's kind of my thought process at the moment.

Edited by kold weather
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