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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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18z same widespread snow across england tuesday evening!

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GFS 18z looks very similar to the 12z but a good bit weaker with Tuesday's low. Frontal system looks broadly similar as well.

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is your Northward Extent for Thurs.

Expect more corrections South & more eastward 'pulses' as the front seperates

B47B0D2A-3918-4084-A0CA-A0F22DDA2DC3.thumb.png.3b8e36877dd75d30c9434403ea76dd47.png6019A5BD-D708-40B5-A185-EAB5912E32BE.thumb.png.df1959420a2d6f0106d0d419e44a885b.png

Delivering more snow for the South. Good top up for Tuesday's snow. Good 5cms for the South East.

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

18z same widespread snow across england tuesday evening!

Yes

some snow for most of the country on tue's

gfs-2-42.thumb.png.53393629a2c5330e9f3b99460bf3724e.pnggfs-2-48.thumb.png.fba44f670d2711e3a9d5504fd90846d9.pnggfs-2-54.thumb.png.1ecca130739d2e2ee5d0f439fa99c0df.png

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My location in the red for heavy snow on the icon! 

icon13.png.7352ca53e4b4eaf6802715b2ea6c18da (1).png

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes

some snow for most of the country on tue's

gfs-2-42.thumb.png.53393629a2c5330e9f3b99460bf3724e.pnggfs-2-48.thumb.png.fba44f670d2711e3a9d5504fd90846d9.pnggfs-2-54.thumb.png.1ecca130739d2e2ee5d0f439fa99c0df.png

The UK charts have it down as a rain to snow event though?

image.thumb.png.fe2f85ceee9c404957523e49eb5efb04.pngimage.thumb.png.0c00d8ddafc073fb7b75e401efa1ceb9.pngimage.thumb.png.df410e71cfae121aa24ed95783096363.png 

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Just now, snowice said:

My location in the red for heavy snow on the icon! 

icon13.png.7352ca53e4b4eaf6802715b2ea6c18da (1).png

Don't want to burst your bubble, but that's orange to me!😂

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Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Don't want to burst your bubble, but that's orange to me!😂

Red/orange😀😀

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The UK charts have it down as a rain to snow event though?

image.thumb.png.fe2f85ceee9c404957523e49eb5efb04.pngimage.thumb.png.0c00d8ddafc073fb7b75e401efa1ceb9.pngimage.thumb.png.df410e71cfae121aa24ed95783096363.png 

I don't mind that,it's better than a snow to rain event as i think everyone would agree,but thanks anyway🙂

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We seem to be at the point for Tuesday where we are certain that a band of snow will cross west to east. Knowing exactly how that pans out re whether it’s all snow, whether it’s heavy, whether it settles etc etc is not something anyone can pin down at this stage. Tomorrow evening we may be able to make a stab at it but even then I doubt it. 

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The UK charts have it down as a rain to snow event though?

image.thumb.png.fe2f85ceee9c404957523e49eb5efb04.pngimage.thumb.png.0c00d8ddafc073fb7b75e401efa1ceb9.pngimage.thumb.png.df410e71cfae121aa24ed95783096363.png 

Yes this whole so called event is likely to be within the amounts mentioned by the MetOffice. 1-3cms. Normally this would not be given much mention yet for some reason being talked about like it's a snowstorm. Thursday has better potential but it's knife edge stuff between snow/rain.

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No more posts on guessing snow depths. I have hidden those already posted.

A mention in general of snow chances in relation to a chart is fine but a competition on guessing snow depths by region in here would send the thread way off topic. 

Please use your regional threads for more in depth chat on snow chances. 

Cheers all. 

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

I don't mind that,it's better than a snow to rain event as i think everyone would agree,but thanks anyway🙂

True, we should just be wary it might be on the wrong side of marginal, I think Thursday is becoming the main event now. However minor changes on Tuesday could tip things on the right side of marginal again..

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

We seem to be at the point for Tuesday where we are certain that a band of snow will cross west to east. Knowing exactly how that pans out re whether it’s all snow, whether it’s heavy, whether it settles etc etc is not something anyone can pin down at this stage. Tomorrow evening we may be able to make a stab at it but even then I doubt it. 

Quiet right Blue

a nowcast situation is always favoured when what/how much falls from the sky on the day.

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Cracking ICON for the Midlands tonight, accumulation of 30cms in a few spots for the two systems!

Anyway watching the 18z GFS and see what it shows for Thursday as well as the 18z ECM update when it comes.

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Very hit and miss, winds need to be on perfect angle, but Wed am, looking very snowy potentially through Cheshire Gap, I need NW winds, not NNW or WNW

gfs-0-60.png?18

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Just now, Thunder Snow said:

Hope to see Thursdays main event furth north

That seems very unlikely - but the north of England and Scotland stay under the coldest part of the troughing and will definitely pick up snowfalls from time to time , especially where an onshore flow exists or convergence zones establish plus troughs which aren’t currently picked up. I would much prefer to be where you are than in the  Home Counties  as far as snowfall is concerned. 

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Quiet right Blue

a nowcast situation is always favoured when what/how much falls from the sky on the day.

And that means LAMPPOSTS! And, for those of you viewing in black & white, shine a torch through the window pane!😁

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The icon isn't showing accumulating snow for the south on Thursday or much falling snow, snow confined in heaviest bursts but preceeded by rain and on the back edge rain. 

Metociel isn't a good source in determining precipitation type as the graphic overlays are lacking. 

I think realistically if there is a correction south then I'd expect a line somewhere around St Albans to Bristol northwards for lying snow, a wintry mixture further south for places like London. 

 

 

_20190127_215733.JPG

_20190127_215719.JPG

Edited by Cheese Rice

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GFS brings some more outbreaks of snow/snow showers across England and Wales on Wednesday. Could see some small surprises outside of the main snow risks this week.

gfs3.gif

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Interesting times folk, snow potential is clear to see, some may get a dumping, others a smattering, but longer term I feel good, especially as the Eastern seaboard is potentially looking a fair bit milder this time next week, so one would hope a raging jet stream surge brought on from intense cold pooling out of Canada looks a little less likey

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4 minutes ago, snowice said:

Red/orange😀😀

Red is to orange by more than a factor of two in terms of the 3hr/mm precipitation rates. You sit more in the green - light orange zone and in this scenario would dump 5-6mm or rain or perhaps 6cm of snow every 3 hours. That's not bad.

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