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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Wouldn't take much on the ICON 18z for the same shift northwards as it was from the 12z and we'd be looking at some SIGNIFICANT accumulations across much of England.

EDIT: For a time it actually develops a tiny hidden feature just off the SE coast!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

think its rain anyway, you are definitely south of the low

ECM1-48.GIF?27-0

I want it further north . Strongest winds are on the southern flank so I want those well away from here.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

I want it further north . Strongest winds are on the southern flank so I want those well away from here.

Yeah, true, I would too hate strong winds (unless beast of course!) been awful today, no rain at least

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I want it further north . Strongest winds are on the southern flank so I want those well away from here.

Hey, have some loyalties to the people from your name and homeland, Nick  

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

There is still some large differences between the runs, for example 12z and 18z ICON is about 400 miles apart by the time we get to 60hrs. So clearly still some differing solutions on this low and where it goes.

Still, broadly the weather picture remains the same over the UK on this run, with the frontal snow.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yeah, true, I would too hate strong winds (unless beast of course!) been awful today, no rain at least

It’s been dire down here. But great for the mountains with more snow . It’s gone from one extreme to the other . A lack of snow to now too much falling and a high avalanche risk .

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Evening All , A cold week coming up but!!! caution needed with regards snow, looks like elevation areas could get loads of snow, but precipitation , from the models is not reliable......Enjoy the rollercoaster folks ..

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Hey, have some loyalties to the people from your name and homeland, Nick  

I am . It goes further north you get more snow and I can sit here with the power on enjoying the snow reports coming in from the UK.

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Daniel Enthusiast

Daniel

Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

NB the ICON does start to develop the UKMO feature

This is what needs to develop & lift NE

9A22412F-2B53-4748-9982-5E180241D4A5.thumb.png.bd75c1b384e5ff2c7135439868625190.png

What does this mean? More snow?

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Just early doors on ICON isn't it astonishing that we've got this totally unstable air  mass  and such cold uppers, T66:  

image.thumb.jpg.90307ca5d7953320fe9a078f18cc30f3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a43d2a09a929d4de0af609d38a5f6c7e.jpg

I know snow marginal, but there could be some big falls here.

Edited by Mike Poole
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, CSC said:

Hey Nick I am in Sussex please remain loyal!!

I am ! I’m talking about the Channel Low . The next low drama for Thursday still has lots of mileage left . 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

ICON 18Z has, probably, a snow event for Manchester south (I guess more marginal the further west you are) on Tuesday - no major totals though, with the heavy stuff slipping south again. 

Nasty little storm for France! 

(There you go - I managed a non IMBY post!) 

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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

What does this mean? More snow?

The low seems too far south over France for any precipitation here unless earlier frames have it over south at all? 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Interesting as regards to this low pressure moving to the south east, and perhaps the one later in week following the same trajection! Being as storm Emma moving up from the sw scuppered the beast last year, perhaps we have the exact opposite this time, short term pain bringing much more gain 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

A much better shape to the next low on the ICON 18 hrs run at T90 hrs. The more oval and elongated running more se will have a better chance of not lifting out the cold .

Edited by nick sussex
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)

Icon has Tuesday's frontal system further north. More of the North Midlands into play.

Just for a bit of IMBYism 

18z vs 12z

icon11.thumb.png.df00a6a6c1de554daf9c451dfa6f185c.pngicon12.png  

Edited by MattStoke
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Icon has Tuesday's frontal system further north. More of the North Midlands into play.

Just for a bit of IMBYism 

icon12.png

icon11.png

Aye, mattstoke, mattwolves and me inbetween

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

What’s interesting for coldies in the favoured areas on Thursday is the pivot and edging se .

Some areas could see an extended spell of snow but don’t ask me where yet!

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