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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    Just now, That ECM said:

    Don’t go to far, we are like a village in here and every village needs one ?????

    .....just like the many on here that went up the merry path a week or so ago!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
    9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    I for one am not expecting a repeat from the EC46 tomorrow that we’ve been used to seeing. Perhaps then you’ll see a change in wording from the MetO ?‍♂️ Perhaps not.... something has to give soon

    This is not the Karlos I remember who was snowed in back in March! One of the most positive members Year in/Year out on this forum. ?

    You need to stick your head in the freezer and get that freezing blood pumping through you again! ?

    There must be a hint of Winter weather showing for the Southwest on the GFS, UKMO or ECM for you to cling onto? ❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    10 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Whilst the original poster was a bit OTT, there is a trend developing for heights to build again over or just the west of Portugal by day 8. If that comes to pass its not good for cold weather prospects. This is evident across much of the model output. Whilst their are uncertainties I think people are brave to simply dismiss that things may get milder in the mid range. 

    NWP models may be showing building of heights further south towards the end of output, but also a trend for heights to the north at 500mb. I'd tend to trust the 500mb output over surface level charts at that sort of range.

    It's not a case of dismissing a possible mild outcome at that range, it's recognising the fact that NWP models are really struggling to get the surface pattern correct at a relatively short range right now. As mentioned before, the ECM (yesterday or Friday?) Had the deep Atlantic system filling in situ over the UK by the end of this week with a mild SW air stream deep into Western Europe; that is no longer forecast. In these sorts of situations, models tend to try and push the Atlantic in too quickly. At the same time, we appear to be seeing a shift towards northern blocking appearing.

    Nothing is guaranteed of course, but I don't think comments about when the Met Office are going to change their outlook to fit in with an 8 day NWP chart really show much analysis...

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    , as for showing 500mb anomalies and ec clusters they were also off the mark a week or so back - 2 sides to every coin!...

    But they weren't. They've been showing a broadly NW flow for quite some time and that is what has been happening. Bear in mind that a higher anomaly towards Greenland does not mean a high pressure; heights are generally low there in January, so it means higher than average at the 500mb level. In recent cases this has been enough to help with the steer from NW to SE.

    Not to be confused with SLP anomalies or absolute SLP heights!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Was noted on the 00z run and strong day 10 support on the spreads ...however, ridging from there is not uncommon as part of the mechanics for establishing heights to our north/northeast so would be waiting to see where this goes over the next few days (if it still shows) 

    And the 12z eps firms up on that push of the Azores ridge days 8/10 ....awaiting the spreads to see the likely pattern 

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    Usual aggression kicking in tonight lol

    everyone should watch and post the models as they see fit

    we are a democratic country after all and can say what we like due to our own opinions

    as long as that don’t include the brexit vote

    seriously t think everyone will see some snow this coming week and things will change for the good

    Northern snow is as good as southern snow

    lets beat snowism together

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM 12z ensembles out now, first massive support to ECM/UKMO blend at T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.e107427b8f06c5d11bbe7c6e096d274f.jpg

    Then at T240, I think this gives credence that the vortex won't be ruling the roost in our neck of the hemisphere for the rest of winter.  What will, is of course the question to be answered in future model runs....

    image.thumb.jpg.1a430830d1b044200fc02c99027ddb16.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    And the 12z eps firms up on that push of the Azores ridge days 8/10 ....awaiting the spreads to see the likely pattern 

    But it looks a short lived feature with positive anomaly over Scandinavia later on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
    6 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:

    Where is your evidence to back that statement up

    Well I look at the charts being posted and all I see is nothing out of the ordinary, usual winter weather with the usual places getting snow, Being a realist on here is difficult against all the potential!! The potential is there for wide spread wintery weather. We need to get the cold in first to use a cliche used a lot on here, under cutting from the east is possible to help that, it's still straw clutching as I see it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
    1 hour ago, Banbury said:

    You are assuming PPN is that far North 

    Put another way if the ppn got further north then yes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, mbrothers said:

    At least there is chat on here. Over on two it’s a gfuqhgfpjh fest 

    Never been in there. You won’t catch me watching football matches at white heart lane either! #loyalmember ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Initial assessment of the eps mean and anoms is that an Azores ridge will push ne day 9/10 but this will simply bolster the developing blocking to our ne and the next slider from the Atlantic will follow days 11/12 

    Is there a signal for a proper Scandi block by D15 please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

    At least there is chat on here. Over on two it’s a gfuqhgfpjh fest 

    I don't usually look at the other side, its nothing on netweather though, only quarter of members to here

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Is there a signal for a proper Scandi block by D15 please?

    Not yet ....the clusters from the 00z run were certainly getting there though ......but a lack of clarity on placement 

    i think getting snow cover on the continent over n france and Belgium will be handy if the sliders continue as week two progresses 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    So looking at the ensembles for Tuesday:

    1: Majority go for the same solution as most of the models, with a frontal snow event, nothing too extreme on those runs, broadly 1-2 inches but a few have very little.

    2: Still a decent minority (I'd say between 20-30%) that have a much bigger snowfall for the south. These runs have broadly between 4-8 inches.

    Haven't seen Thursday yet...

    to put it in simpler terms anywhere really in the warnings zone or slighty out of it if it changes atm could see depths of

    1_15cm s possible

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Never been in there. You won’t catch me watching football matches at white heart lane either! #loyalmember ?

    You've never been to WHL to watch the boys ?? Surely your not a plastic fan ?

    Nothing wrong with TWO , it seems on both sides tonight ………...silly heads have been out in force 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    I don't usually look at the other side, its nothing on netweather though, only quarter of members to here

    Both are equally enjoyable with the odd scrap - quantity v quality - some very knowledgeable posters on both side  

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
    12 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    You've never been to WHL to watch the boys ?? Surely your not a plastic fan ?

    Nothing wrong with TWO , it seems on both sides tonight ………...silly heads have been out in force 

    Spurs are a bit like the GFS - good at putting the pressure on but will never be the top dog.

    Edited by Mr Frost
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