Cold hunt - models and chat

[Boro Snow]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Uppers are shocking, pretty useless easterly lol.

 

Depends on location of course

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

ECM and UK on the same page!!!!

The Two we want on side too , Yes ?

[Mark Parsons]

Post Tuesday looks a mess and not concluded, anything could happen.

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM now caught up with my favourite model the UKMO

Should be loads of ppn Lake effect snow, raw east wind low uppers for the east coast . 

[chris55]

More of a ‘slide’ needed on EC, to stop those slightly milder 850s wrapping round. Good positioning of the low centre slipping into Bisacy but the shape is unhelpful.

Changes are perfectly plausible the way things are going at the moment!

[Djdazzle]

ECM 120 chart is not a freeze - I wish people would think before posting such nonsense.

[Mark Parsons]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

Depends on location of course

Looking good up north , the South might not do so well by the weekend .

[Matty M]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM handling the low pressure similar to the UKMO. Snow still gets further north but a lot more snow on this one for the south as well. No great amounts down here as there is marginality which probably affects covering amounts, but still we add probably an inch even in the far south.

Further north - it looks like out to 111hrs it is putting down around 2-4 inches extra snowfall fairly widely, especially across W.Midlands, Wales and into the NE.

Mike Poole ARPEGE is a terrible model for prediciting snowfall, has a known tendency to predict rain when clearly snow...even in the beast from the east it had light RAIN showers for some areas!

The ARPEGE snow issue is all because of graupel! The model has a hail/rain/snow/graupel elements.

 

Alot of graupel is actually snow, wet sow.. so if there is 60% graupel and 40% snow in the mix, it will not hash over the precipitation chart with snow lines!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

For whiners thread really, SE to get buried, agree with above, no freeze but snowy away from Staffs and Shrops

Edited January 27, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Zesyph]

These uppers at 144 seem an improvement ? 

[ICE COLD]

T144 the cold is cold uppers coming back in . . By the way T120 would still be cold with a flow of the continent . 

[chris55]

At 144, as it stands, EC wrapping cold north easterlies back in.

Looks loaded going forward as well....

Edited January 27, 2019 by chris55

[Dean E]

16 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

And maybe Channel Islands, a la March 2013.

Remember this well, parts of Jersey and Guernsey reported over a metre of snow from that, while Southern England got a small dusting. Was a difficult time for a coldie!

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Mark Parsons said:

Looking good up north , the South might not do so well by the weekend .

You are assuming PPN is that far North 

[festivalking]

3 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

Post Tuesday looks a mess and not concluded, anything could happen.

I'd suggest Tuesday is not sorted yet

[Hammer]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM 120 chart is not a freeze - I wish people would think before posting such nonsense.

ECM 144 pretty good.

[Tim Bland]

Looking forward to seeing EC precip charts if anyone who has access can post them please

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Depends on location of course

Good point, Horrendous for Southern Spain  

 

[mb018538]

Ecm looks great at 144 and 168. Even more snow opportunities, North Sea low too!

[Sweatyman]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM handling the low pressure similar to the UKMO. Snow still gets further north but a lot more snow on this one for the south as well. No great amounts down here as there is marginality which probably affects covering amounts, but still we add probably an inch even in the far south.

Further north - it looks like out to 111hrs it is putting down around 2-4 inches extra snowfall fairly widely, especially across W.Midlands, Wales and into the NE.

Ukpaul ARPEGE is a terrible model for prediciting snowfall, has a known tendency to predict rain when clearly snow...even in the beast from the east it had light RAIN showers for some areas!

also say Euro 4 was bad last week for here

 

 

 

 

 

[ICE COLD]

T168 . That’s a 7 day cold spell so far with snow pretty much anywhere.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM 120 chart is not a freeze - I wish people would think before posting such nonsense.

No one is saying it is, it is chart that unlocks the door to a potentially protracted spell with easterly or northeasterly winds that is all.  That by itself is enough!  

I wish people would think before posting such nonsense.

[Ice Day]

168 and the cold is still holding on.... just

  

[Wilxy]

Rather strong Canadian vortex still though on this run.

[Mark Parsons]

4 minutes ago, festivalking said:

I'd suggest Tuesday is not sorted yet

I'm trying to be kind.