Cold hunt - models and chat

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96

Putting up a strong ridge, think that bowling ball low is toast now!

Got to love a kinky isobar too...

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Huge snowfall in n France from that low 

That is still within the range of error for the far south I'd say, especially with the UKMO showing what it is, and the Euro4 looks close to the UKMO. Not the form horse, but it is a horse, and it is in the race hoping the better horses all fall at the last jump! Still yes, something like 10-15 inches widely there.

ECM at 96hrs has a better profile in terms of where the warm is located, even though the LP looks further north at that point.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

And maybe Channel Islands, a la March 2013.

Not according to the raw data 

[Mark wheeler]

Very Tasty Navgem .

 

[shaky]

Ecm you beaaaaaauuutyyyy!!!easterly winds at 120 hours!!!!freeeze baby freeze!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120, goes with UKMO, BOOM!

[Mark wheeler]

Yummy  

Go Go super ecm 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Mark wheeler

[SMU]

ECM now caught up with my favourite model the UKMO

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very like countryfile weather, looks like SW/S Wales event, bugga, still time I suppose for NE shift of the low

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm you beaaaaaauuutyyyy!!!easterly winds at 120 hours!!!!freeeze baby freeze!!

Tepid uppers (cold wise) .....will feel cold but a baby freeze for the time being as you say ......

[ukpaul]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just before ECM, a look at the Tuesday event, cumulative snow charts from ARPEGE and ICON-EU 12z:

Bizarre!  Couldn't be more different.  I'm going with ICON-EU even though I don't rate it as a model, my preference for trying to predict snow is the HIRLAM but it is not in range until tomorrow 0z run.   

So much going on, this is WINTER 

Looking through through the other models, ICON has support from the NETWX model but the others (WRF, both GFS, GEM) are akin to the ARPEGE.

Hopefully people are looking at all the models, not just the ones posted that look good for their area. Nothing is definite here......

[Wilxy]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Very like countryfile weather, looks like SW/S Wales event, bugga, still time I suppose for NE shift of the low

Rain in the SW snow in the midlands!

Edited January 27, 2019 by TomW

[ChezWeather]

Euro4 as far out as it will currently go, Midday Tuesday

 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Tepid uppers (cold wise) .....will feel cold but a baby freeze for the time being as you say ......

Is there a lot of snow on that T120 ECM Nick ? 

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Tepid uppers (cold wise) .....will feel cold but a baby freeze for the time being as you say ......

Blimey who peed in your cornflakes today! You are right uppers wise it’s a ‘tepid’ easterly but uppers arent as important from that direction are they.

[karlos1983]

Uppers are shocking, pretty useless easterly lol. If you can indeed call it that..

Edited January 27, 2019 by karlos1983

[kold weather]

ECM handling the low pressure similar to the UKMO. Snow still gets further north but a lot more snow on this one for the south as well. No great amounts down here as there is marginality which probably affects covering amounts, but still we add probably an inch even in the far south.

Further north - it looks like out to 111hrs it is putting down around 2-4 inches extra snowfall fairly widely, especially across W.Midlands, Wales and into the NE.

Ukpaul ARPEGE is a terrible model for prediciting snowfall, has a known tendency to predict rain when clearly snow...even in the beast from the east it had light RAIN showers for some areas!

Edited January 27, 2019 by kold weather

[Huntforsnow]

2 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Euro4 as far out as it will currently go, Midday Tuesday

 

'Please' show Scotland too...ta 

[Ice Day]

OK, here we go with the big 3 at 144

GFS  UKMO  ECM 

ECM and UK on the same page!!!!

[Mark Parsons]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Uppers are shocking, pretty useless easterly lol. If you can indeed call it that..

If that chart is anything to go by then it's rain!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

Looking through through the other models, ICON has support from the NETWX model but the others (WRF, both GFS, GEM) are akin to the ARPEGE.

Hopefully people are looking at all the models, not just the ones posted that look good for their area. Nothing is definite here......

Yes, but I think the Met Office warning area serves as a useful 'prior' in interpreting the short range model output, of which of course GFS isn't.  Tuesday looks to me to favour the southern half of the country, if the longer range stuff continues to go as per ECM/UKMO in a week or so there should be chances for all!

[ChezWeather]

1 minute ago, Huntforsnow said:

'Please' show Scotland too...ta 

[SMU]

The ECM milder uppers are mixed out pretty quick so whilst we see a mediocre set of numbers at 120 the surface cold will have been enough for a snow event before the -6/-7c line mives back south on Friday

[Guest]

Just now, Mark Parsons said:

If that chart is anything to go by then it's rain!

To add a bit of balance there are northern areas where it is cold enough on that chart to see snow.

[Ice Day]

And the uppers at 144 are much better