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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

I'm liking that the MetO precipitation charts are bringing the frontal band in a few hours later as that will bring more people further west a chance of snow as it would've had a chance to cool down first.  

Edited by Leon1
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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Here is the NetWx Hi-Res model, this is as far as it goes for now however. Chart is for Tuesday at midday, 3, 6 & 9pm. The lower res goes on to show this...

1380301267_Tuemidday.thumb.png.e258144c5e8a45905716cfdb89b459aa.png733690302_Tue3.thumb.png.b94dd3e77ce3375bc44395869c965bda.png142734609_Tue18.thumb.png.e36e003ee13405a226c6e603350a6691.png2083779102_Tue21.thumb.png.3afd0e7fd5bec8b5791bcbfb22e9ad87.png

 

bank

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Just before ECM, a look at the Tuesday event, cumulative snow charts from ARPEGE and ICON-EU 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.812bf25ab16a904a16a79286fe46291f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ea92c612e1d28e62c54539738ce3ffba.jpg

Bizarre!  Couldn't be more different.  I'm going with ICON-EU even though I don't rate it as a model, my preference for trying to predict snow is the HIRLAM but it is not in range until tomorrow 0z run.   

So much going on, this is WINTER ❄️:cold:

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

ECM 48 Hours 

steady as she goes 

D08A8387-EF90-4216-B7AF-01D319699016.gif

And the next frame .

 

DAF8E15C-6C43-4AEF-8D88-D5C1467E7212.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Just before ECM, a look at the Tuesday event, cumulative snow charts from ARPEGE and ICON-UK 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.812bf25ab16a904a16a79286fe46291f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ea92c612e1d28e62c54539738ce3ffba.jpg

 Bizarre!  Couldn't be more different.  I'm going with ICON-EU even though I don't rate it as a model, my preference for trying to predict snow is the HIRLAM but it is not in range until tomorrow 0z run.   

So much going on, this is WINTER ❄️:cold:

Definitely going with the ICON based on those two charts. Add a few cm's on for the west (IMBYism I know) and that would be great lol!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Here is the NetWx Hi-Res model, this is as far as it goes for now however. Chart is for Tuesday at midday, 3, 6 & 9pm. The lower res goes on to show this...

1380301267_Tuemidday.thumb.png.e258144c5e8a45905716cfdb89b459aa.png733690302_Tue3.thumb.png.b94dd3e77ce3375bc44395869c965bda.png142734609_Tue18.thumb.png.e36e003ee13405a226c6e603350a6691.png2083779102_Tue21.thumb.png.3afd0e7fd5bec8b5791bcbfb22e9ad87.png

 

Great run, on a personal run only some sleety stuff right at the start, then  solid amount of snowfall coming after that point.

Those sets of charts do show the evolution very nicely though that as the day goes on and cools down the band turns more and more to snow. Ben, is there a surface pressure chart, I wonder if there is a little LP forming on the front based on that chart?

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just before ECM, a look at the Tuesday event, cumulative snow charts from ARPEGE and ICON-EU 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.812bf25ab16a904a16a79286fe46291f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ea92c612e1d28e62c54539738ce3ffba.jpg

Bizarre!  Couldn't be more different.  I'm going with ICON-EU even though I don't rate it as a model, my preference for trying to predict snow is the HIRLAM but it is not in range until tomorrow 0z run.   

So much going on, this is WINTER ❄️

icon will do I suppose

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ec similar to Ukmo - slightly north of its previous run which keeps the precip from the low over the cont8nent 

a small area of snow affects the se ahead of the trough headed west to east - that trough is weaker than the previous run 

this will become a now cast on snow amounts but I wouldn’t be rushing out to buy a sledge just yet .....unless it has wheels on it

 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Why would anyone post In the regionals? This is nowhere near a done deal yet, the modelling is important of this low. When anything falls from the sky fair enough, but until then I don’t think that’s reasonable. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM similar to UKMO just a bit faster through..

FC5733DD-F554-4E3A-814A-9D8428EEE396.thumb.png.7c1e22c2383ac9cc96d4c2ab55a0eccd.png

Interesting feature just to the west of Wales.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Great run, on a personal run only some sleety stuff right at the start, then  solid amount of snowfall coming after that point.

Those sets of charts do show the evolution very nicely though that as the day goes on and cools down the band turns more and more to snow. Ben, is there a surface pressure chart, I wonder if there is a little LP forming on the front based on that chart?

Not that I can see, if there is one it may have formed after it goes to lower res so I cannot view.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Euro4 12z still much further west with the precip, similar to UKMO

This for 18:00 Tuesday.

36293F7D-66AB-4E95-88D7-E5E44DF6BF4C.png

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
Just now, bradythemole said:

Euro4 12z still much further west with the precip, similar to UKMO

This for 18:00 Tuesday.

36293F7D-66AB-4E95-88D7-E5E44DF6BF4C.png

great stuff

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ECM not that dissimilar to the UKIMO other than the NE track at the end. This makes a big difference for the SE however, and probably the difference between 20-25cms and 5-10cms.

Verbatim and the front actually decays a little faster on the 12z ECM, though totals aren't that different from previously. Roughly 1-2 inches, with a few small areas of 3 inches. However the models will be changing from each run how they handle the internal dynamics of the fronts/LP's.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM similar to UKMO just a bit faster through..

FC5733DD-F554-4E3A-814A-9D8428EEE396.thumb.png.7c1e22c2383ac9cc96d4c2ab55a0eccd.png

What’s that second little feature off the tip Wales!

Could liven up the PPN as it swings in.

Just highlights that this upcoming spell could well be full of short notice surprises with the instability of the airmass and the output!!

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Just now, chris55 said:

What’s that second little feature off the tip Wales!

Could liven up the PPN as it swings in.

Just highlights that this upcoming spell could well be full of short notice surprises with the instability of the airmass and the output!!

Yes one to look at over the next 24 hours for the West !

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Huge snowfall in n France from that low 

And maybe Channel Islands, a la March 2013.

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