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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GFS still has a good snow event for Midlands north and the angle looks quite similar to the ICON 12z on this run.

However that UKMO does ned to be watched because it was the first pick up this channel feature developing, and it was also the first to take a less intense system more SE as well in the way we are now seeing all models do, so a step change is possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

So the most likely outcome next week. Tuesday's low to far south for any meaningful snowfall. Thursday's low to far north bringing rain to many. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ARPEGE still not doing a huge amount with the frontal system on Tuesday...however it looks like the UKMO with the 2nd low with the front stalling out for S.Midlands and the south. I suspect the UKMO would look very similar to that.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Been poor this winter but Arpege shows a good angle to the incoming low Thursday/Friday.

i imagine UKMO would slide similar although Arpege is a bit quicker.

53CE616B-32CB-45F8-881F-1A42EFFE9F3A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Meanwhile the GFS continues to roll out - another snow event for the east on Saturday. Though very different to the UKMO by this stage! 

ARPEGE has very little snow for Tuesday (none south of M4), and currently sees Thursday's event as a south-west affair away from coasts. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

One thing about the 12Z UKMO at 96 hours - it’s going for the bunny rabbit Low over the U.K.

43FB222B-1754-4BEB-AEC4-F76D2FB7485D.thumb.png.19f11da147b29d90b1d5e9d6d3129362.png

Really hopping to it with cold weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Is it just me or is the vortex just disintegrating here by next weekend?

image.thumb.jpg.c261db0aef371296f0840cf677160609.jpg

GFS T150.

Indeed so, the ICON shredded it at 180 and the GFS is going the same way at 162.  Scandi high getting stronger by the run as well, there's so much going on it's difficult to keep tabs!!!

image.thumb.png.5afe2c12687d950415745e738f635ac3.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, aitchbomb said:

Couldn’t trouble you for next Saturday’s lottery numbers could I?

Lol, was just pointing out that the long term trends are not so good recently, that's all.  However, even though the trend could change, we should still make the most of anything wintry we can get.  It is Britain after all!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Is it just me or is the vortex just disintegrating here by next weekend?

image.thumb.jpg.c261db0aef371296f0840cf677160609.jpg

GFS T150.

Yes, looks like it could be a stonker this run, disintegrating a lot earlier than expected of it does.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Meanwhile the GFS continues to roll out - another snow event for the east on Saturday. Though very different to the UKMO by this stage! 

If we keep the trough close by then surprises will just crop up 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yesterday and today for the same timeframe .....

BE21729D-3AF4-44DD-964A-1FFB38A53B69.thumb.jpeg.b90190584ae3f81e3f6a656a2791d934.jpeg 734A67E5-22B1-4F02-9716-A845308C35E3.thumb.jpeg.b8fcdc1b5c789c89b2e17fcaff9cdb4c.jpeg

Yes looks great

All I meant was the channel low has now been replaced by the trough closing off from the UK

Ironically they end up in the same position-

Awaiting UKMO ppns 60 & 72

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

 

Siberian bullet cocked and loaded

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Is it just me or is the vortex just disintegrating here by next weekend?

image.thumb.jpg.c261db0aef371296f0840cf677160609.jpg

GFS T150.

Think you’re right. It’s certainly not one organised big evil purple blob. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
13 minutes ago, MKN said:

So the most likely outcome next week. Tuesday's low to far south for any meaningful snowfall. Thursday's low to far north bringing rain to many. 

Whilst that is a very negative thought process there is a trend for snow amounts and falling times to be less and shorter so far today. Still, snow chances are fairly high all week and as @bluearmy pointed out, things can and will crop up if we keep the trough close by. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Meanwhile the GFS continues to roll out - another snow event for the east on Saturday. Though very different to the UKMO by this stage! 

ARPEGE has very little snow for Tuesday (none south of M4), and currently sees Thursday's event as a south-west affair away from coasts. 

I wouldn't take the snow on that as verbatim, it tends to run too mild in my experience and not show anywhere near enough snow, especially if its light (even in the beast from the east, light precip was rain on it!)

Also I totally disagree with that 2nd point, it has got snow pretty much from B'ham south, strongest stuff located in the south of course, but its NOT just a SW affair on it, far from it in fact!

arpegeeur-2-114.thumb.png.c709ff406f7e20804a2ccd8c09faf0b0.png

Edited by kold weather
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