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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have to say now, with each EPS and GEFS extended, it is really looking like this projected very cold spell in mid Feb is looking less and less likely.

Short term gain, long term pain!  Wouldn’t it be just typical if we get a very mild February!

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Much to be resolved for Tuesday but clearly spring is on the way after this week.

That seems to be what I can gather from the comments on here.

This place is so funny at times.

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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Last time you posted a similar theme suggesting the met would change their extended to less cold we had a massive upgrade 12 hours later. I see what your doing here😜😜 clever🤣🤣

True enough - I don't tend to worry too much about the Met long range forecast because it flip and flops as much as any.....BUT for once I'll be very interested to follow their wording for weeks 2 - 4 of Feb over the next day or 3. The ENS suggest changes are afoot - and either changes to EPS will continue until they fall in line with the more powerful tools they have down at Exeter pointing to cold....or those changes to something much less cold are already showing on the outputs from Glosea/Mogreps and alterations in wording will follow. Any changes (or continuity) in wording will be particularly significant I think at this point in our winter, given that any impacts of the downwell have to be showing by mid Feb - and if they are not favourable in shape then very little in terms of drivers/impacts will remain for the current season. The current positive progression of the MJO will not last forever - either we get the transition to a proper cold blocking pattern in the next 2 - 3 weeks or I don't see it happening. 

Could we get another very late season hurrah as per 2018 once the downwell really hits? I don't think so. People need to understand just how severe and sudden the response to that event was. The current slow burner is not going to jam a spoke in the pattern in the same way and produce that extraordinary reversal given our current setup. If the effects continue through March it may well produce a cold month, but one of a much more traditional type. Anticyclonic and dry would be my call, with people then cursing the late arrival or spring warmth.

I saw French newspapers talking up Le Crunch for the upcoming 6 Nations tournament yesterday. Funny how that France England fixture has developed that kind of brutal reputation. Our own "Crunch" is on the near horizon. 

 

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That's what I like about 'background signals'...If at first you don't see them, squint and squint and squint again!

image.thumb.png.745fc83c99b2bc0db609d41338ea96dc.png

Must be a Magic Eye picture...:crazy:

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We will never know, but I wonder how things would’ve been if we’d had last season’s E-QBO in place? My guess, a lot more blocked.

It has, of course, been blocked on occasion, just not any sustained high enough and in the right place for us. The vortex has been more dominant that it ‘ought to have been’, all things considered. A descending W-QBO could have had a more over riding effect than we would’ve wished for.

Edited by s4lancia

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A number of one liners have been hidden. Back to the models please.

edit. I was half expecting the 😃 

Edited by Norrance

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Good to see some model output posts tbh.yes the mo have been putting the Same theme out for what seems forever tbh.signs on the gFS 6z of attempts at building heights into Greenland ete and the PV to the north west weakening.the lack of cold to the east is a concern ie any easterly but that's all in fi

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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Much to be resolved for Tuesday but clearly spring is on the way after this week.

That seems to be what I can gather from the comments on here.

This place is so funny at times.

You can choose to ignore the trends appearing in the models if you like, but no need to dismiss people who want to discuss.

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5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

We will never know, but I wonder how things would’ve been if we’d had last season’s E-QBO in place? My guess, a lot more blocked.

Yes good point.im not sure if the change to a w-qbo was muted by other factors.il have to check strat thread

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6 minutes ago, Drifter said:

You can choose to ignore the trends appearing in the models if you like, but no need to dismiss people who want to discuss.

People can discuss those trends without making sweeping and definitive statements 👍 

Edited by MattStoke

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The ensembles (mean) (ECM / GEFS) are currently trending less cold / milder beyond the week ahead, really they are but I'm not concerned as long as Exeter are on board and they still are..crucially..NO DOWNGRADE..still sounds BRILLIANT!!👍:cold:

Edited by Frosty.

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12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

True enough - I don't tend to worry too much about the Met long range forecast because it flip and flops as much as any.....BUT for once I'll be very interested to follow their wording for weeks 2 - 4 of Feb over the next day or 3. The ENS suggest changes are afoot - and either changes to EPS will continue until they fall in line with the more powerful tools they have down at Exeter pointing to cold....or those changes to something much less cold are already showing on the outputs from Glosea/Mogreps and alterations in wording will follow. Any changes (or continuity) in wording will be particularly significant I think at this point in our winter, given that any impacts of the downwell have to be showing by mid Feb - and if they are not favourable in shape then very little in terms of drivers/impacts will remain for the current season. The current positive progression of the MJO will not last forever - either we get the transition to a proper cold blocking pattern in the next 2 - 3 weeks or I don't see it happening. 

Could we get another very late season hurrah as per 2018 once the downwell really hits? I don't think so. People need to understand just how severe and sudden the response to that event was. The current slow burner is not going to jam a spoke in the pattern in the same way and produce that extraordinary reversal given our current setup. If the effects continue through March it may well produce a cold month, but one of a much more traditional type. Anticyclonic and dry would be my call, with people then cursing the late arrival or spring warmth.

I saw French newspapers talking up Le Crunch for the upcoming 6 Nations tournament yesterday. Funny how that France England fixture has developed that kind of brutal reputation. Our own "Crunch" is on the near horizon. 

 

FWIW my take is that we don’t know the track of the low on Tuesday as it exits the uk ne/se? We then don’t know the track of the low on Thursday. I think this will have an effect on the possibility of a scandi high. We will see but until the scandi high is off the table I remain hopeful. 

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The infinitely complex interaction of macro drivers will always keep FI at 4-5 days followed by flip flopping ensemble chaos from run to run, especially if your focus is on the pimple that is the UK and Ireland from a global perspective.  My point is winter is NOT over just yet, yes we need a huge slice of luck in the next couple of weeks but no one can deny that there’s always a chance.  Feb91, March18 did actually happen.

Edited by minus86BriJ

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19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Finally some good output from GFS beyond 10days, springs just around the corner. 

This week could realistically be the last attempt until next winter for snow for many in the south that being said I wouldn’t like to be a forecaster, so horrendously marginal conditions, will it snow at all, where will the snow line be? Give atmospheric profiles I think GFS is being too aggressive with snow accumulations.

I think for many the biggest problem this week will you ice - could be real problem Wednesday morning with all that rain freezing.

Not too sure how long you have lived in the UK but any UK resident will know Jan 29th - Jan 31st aren't the UK's last realistic chances for Snow , February can produce as well as March as well as April, even January 29th is in FI , so how you can look beyond with a smidgen of confidence I don't know.

Your statement is clearly from someone with very little historical knowledge of UK Winters .

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

People can discuss those trends without making sweeping and definitive statements about spring warmth clearly being on the way 👍 

Tbh if it transpires that we miss out in February ie a good cold spell I'd love a jump to summer !! maybe it's an age thing but it's good for my joints😁😁

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Should be some cracking fl runs later after that meto update. Ecm been hinting at the siberian high pushing westwards with frigid easterlies, to join in to the USA freeze up. 

Edited by SLEETY

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EC 06z (yes that’ s not It a typo) taking the low through Brest south-east track). PPN to the north, but not much

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4 minutes ago, tinybill said:

Just been watching BBC  weather still very much sitting  on the  fench but one thing she did say will could expect an east wind by  friday

image.thumb.png.7f4a6a5281188be38447391a449b96f8.png

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12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Should be some cracking fl runs later after that meto update. Ecm been hinting at the siberian high pushing westwards with frigid easterlies, to join in to the USA freeze up. 

That’s Still out of range of Gfs fi sleety ........

 

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2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC 06z (yes that’ s not It a typo) taking the low through Brest south-east track). PPN to the north, but not much

I think we are pretty much done on the low Stewart and relying on the trough headed west to east ....(the next fax will advise re the running frontal wave above the low) 

Edited by bluearmy

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As SLEETY suggested, I think after the latest MO update the models are going to look very nice long term tonight !

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Just now, bluearmy said:

I think we are pretty much done on the low Stewart and relying on the trough headed west to east ....

Is that following the 00z blue..

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Just now, Jackski4 said:

As SLEETY suggested, I think after the latest MO update the models are going to look very nice long term tonight !

The Meto update promises more of the same out to end week 2 ......a ‘low’ chance of the easterly by the end week 2 and then the higher chance thereafter ..... not sure how you expect to see that showing on output which only goes to 16 days and is, in any case,  unlikely to pick up on the reversal wave which is clearly dicatating the tone of the 30 dayer 

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