Jump to content
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

11 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Plenty of PPN is way north of the Tuesday system. The Pennines and areas East and West look to do just as well as further South and without that element of marginality. Look for the next warnings to extend further north and west.

Indeed and current warning graphic hints at that 

05A738B4-51EF-4AE9-A75A-B3114038362B.jpeg

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 6z ensembles show a very distinct trend to early spring like conditions through day 10 plus.

This trend has gathered pace of the last day or so, and is of course completely contrary to other guidance, but hard to ignore given the notable failure of other guidance this winter in relation to northern blocking. 

 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Background signals are really starting to show as we go further into February on the Gfs 6z operational!?

06_288_ukthickness850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_312_ukthickness850.png

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

06_324_mslp850.png

I think I'll put the unused sledge away and dust off the BBQ with those 850's and 2m temps!..just about sums this winter (or total lack of) up!!???

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have to say now, with each EPS and GEFS extended, it is really looking like this projected very cold spell in mid Feb is looking less and less likely.

Yes, if you weren't aware of the background signals and just looked at the ensembles you'd say an early spring is more likely than a big freeze (*awaits abuse*).

We need to start seeing the signs very soon.

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have to say now, with each EPS and GEFS extended, it is really looking like this projected very cold spell in mid Feb is looking less and less likely.

This looks to be are best window period for proper northern blocking if we don't succeed this period then i can't see any northern blocking until March.

gfs-0-192.png

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Background signals are really starting to show as we go further into February on the Gfs 6z operational!?:shok::crazy:

06_288_ukthickness850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_312_ukthickness850.png

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

06_324_mslp850.png

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

We’ve so many background signals etc... fail to deliver this winter. A bit of adjustment westward and we’ll be in the game!!

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Yes, if you weren't aware of the background signals and just looked at the ensembles you'd say an early spring is more likely than a big freeze (*awaits abuse*).

We need to start seeing the signs very soon.

I could make a case based on previous GEFS suites as the trough was digging to our west more with scandi heights developing but the 6z suite has trended the trough more W or NW and the eps graph is howing no real cold members, you do usually get higher uppers as a prelude to an E'ly as any high re-orientates but like you say - need to see signs soon.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Understand why they are being mentioned as it’s a strong signal in fairness but the ensembles have been utterly useless this winter to be frank, wouldn’t worry about it too much at This stage

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Understand why they are being mentioned as it’s a strong signal in fairness but the ensembles have been utterly useless this winter to be frank, wouldn’t worry about it too much at This stage

Agreed 100% with this. They've consistently flip flopped around, they didn't pick this weekends milder blip up until rather late. 

The trend is undeniably towards less cold beyond next weekend and on this occasion I think that's probably the way we're heading given the extreme cold pouring into the USA, this will strengthen the jet and probably flatten the pattern somewhat. I suspect the GFS is over-doing it a little with the incredibly zonal pattern, though in any event "deep cold Easterlies" are absolutely not on the cards, whatever model you look at.

Could be that this is one of the SSW's that doesn't produce favourably for the UK. Despite the Met Office outlook, they've been pushing the proper cold back and back since the start of January. Fairly strong signal from the EPS to reduce the Euro troughing too.

  • Like 4
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't show you the composite because of the shutdown but it is worth saying that a high amplitude phase 8 MJO does produce a Euro High pattern (basically a west based -NAO).

The better news is that a 1-2-3 orbit do build pressure north and east for a more easterly pattern.  

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, summer blizzard said:

I can't show you the composite because of the shutdown but it is worth saying that a high amplitude phase 8 MJO does produce a Euro High pattern (basically a west based -NAO).

The better news is that a 1-2-3 orbit do build pressure north and east for a more easterly pattern.  

The shutdown is over, surely you can access now?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Although I want to bury my head in the sand and pretend it isn't happening, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending less cold / milder beyond the week ahead..as is the GEFS 00z mean.

EDM0-240.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Sadly that does seem to be a trend now.  Make the most of this week!

Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have to say now, with each EPS and GEFS extended, it is really looking like this projected very cold spell in mid Feb is looking less and less likely.

Last time you posted a similar theme suggesting the met would change their extended to less cold we had a massive upgrade 12 hours later. I see what your doing here?? clever??

  • Like 4
  • Haha 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Finally some good output from GFS beyond 10days, springs just around the corner. 

This week could realistically be the last attempt until next winter for snow for many in the south that being said I wouldn’t like to be a forecaster, so horrendously marginal conditions, will it snow at all, where will the snow line be? Give atmospheric profiles I think GFS is being too aggressive with snow accumulations.

I think for many the biggest problem this week will you ice - could be real problem Wednesday morning with all that rain freezing.

Edited by Alderc
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 7
  • Sad 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...