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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Lampostwatcher Seasoned

Lampostwatcher

Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
Posted
2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Yep South East England has a yellow warning Tuesday evening for snow and now looking like the low on Thursday is trending south with a risk of more snow ..

Yep id expect another yellow warning for Thursday in the Southeast maybe later today or tomorrow

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

With it being Sunday and everyone about to embark on their sunday lunches be it with Yorkshire pudding or not.

Wether you are in the N/S/E/W I leave you with this until the 12Zs

"for the Snow we are about to receive,may the Lord make us truly thankful"

Amen

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Yep id expect another yellow warning for Thursday in the Southeast maybe later today or tomorrow

And for large parts of England too

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nowt beats a raging northeasterly gale, heavy snow!

image.thumb.png.2e6905a4feaa919c500b7d5a0795e9f5.png

Just as a clarification for any newbies....

F31A419B-B716-4521-8B7E-88D18F2C7428.jpeg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

We could do without another one of these too, while you're at it, God!

image.thumb.png.f508a7a277c6c74429a9a141d44cf897.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Phew. Had a scare for a moment. Looked at the GFSP and it was showing snow-rain for Tuesday, which REALLY confused me, and I looked at all the details because I knew that wasn't going to go in that direction. I think it has the rain-snow inverted for some odd reason!

Anyway, the higher resolution clears it all up and shows the same set-up as all the other models, with a fairly active front moving through the southern half of the country, all snow for SE/EA and E.Midlands, though has extended west from the 00z run.

In other good news, it is also slightly later in arriving, which brings places further west into the fold as well!

To be honest KW there's that many runs to come before Tues God knows where things will be!! Seen many a low in the 70-80s ete move a long way over 48 hrs esp in a cold flow.guess it will all be revealed come the day

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Tuesday low coming into view on Euro4. From tonight it will be this & Hirlam etc to keep an eye on. You can see how much precip is being thrown to the north of the low on a developing sympathetic trough. It is this (not the main low, which will be over north France)  that will give the 2-5cm the met office is warning about 

3C606D69-AC6F-44D6-9B43-653242DAB9C2.gif

71D93A09-7FF0-4112-A417-F66381AAC055.jpeg

16C72215-1987-4FDD-8ED3-D7AE184A9BCB.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Longer term the there is nothing to suggest the e46 forecast shall be even close to being correct at the moment!!chalk and cheese when you compare ec46 to the ops at the moment!!make the most of whatever snow you get this week!

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Well the ensembles are still a total mess. A lot more agreement on a more northerly frontal system on Thursday, but far from conclusive agreement. EVen Tuesday STILL has considerable uncertainties with timing and exact location of the core of the precip.

Most models have snow on Tuesday for at least the east, 2 runs don't develop the feature at all. Variois degrees of intensity as well.

As for Thursday, I'd say its 60% for the northern option, 20% are a little further south, cand the further 20% keep this is a as a south event only. So still considerable uncertainty!

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the ensembles are still a total mess. A lot more agreement on a more northerly frontal system on Thursday, but far from conclusive agreement. EVen Tuesday STILL has considerable uncertainties with timing and exact location of the core of the precip.

Most models have snow on Tuesday for at least the east, 2 runs don't develop the feature at all. Variois degrees of intensity as well.

As for Thursday, I'd say its 60% for the northern option, 20% are a little further south, cand the further 20% keep this is a as a south event only. So still considerable uncertainty!

Gona stick my neck out and say gfs is gona change and go south on the 12zs!!like the ecm!!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, shaky said:

Longer term the there is nothing to suggest the e46 forecast shall be even close to being correct at the moment!!chalk and cheese when you compare ec46 to the ops at the moment!!make the most of whatever snow you get this week!

To the ops shaky yes but ensembles show heights anoms north.

Remember they're anomalies over a week period. You can get high heights north on an anomaly chart just because it's vs climantology average and the lack of the standard PV north would cause reds to appear there.

Edited by Snowman.
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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

Para was very nice this morning! Puts the low further south bringing more people into play for Tuesday and puts Thursdays further south. All good. Yesterday we had some brilliant 12zs, hoping for the same. I think the thing we're all going to be looking for over the next 5 days is a trend for some blocking. UKMO had it yesterday and the ECM looked good this morning even if the mean doesn't look too good.

 

Some people are really toxic, the fact is that we are nearly all going to get snow this week, and we all want the same thing going forward. I really don't understand why some people have to be so negative/toxic about every little thing. Just relax, it's not even February yet..

 

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Longer term the there is nothing to suggest the e46 forecast shall be even close to being correct at the moment!!chalk and cheese when you compare ec46 to the ops at the moment!!make the most of whatever snow you get this week!

Rather silly post if you don't mind.

I might be negative with regards to the next say 10 days. However +384 only takes us to the 12th Feb. if we have learn't one thing this winter, It doesn't matter what the long term signals say, long range model runs, we simply cannot forecast beyond 10 days. So that leaves plenty of winter left and in my experience the last 2 weeks of Feb have always been more likely to produce cold spells then say beginning of Dec.

 

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Lampostwatcher Seasoned

Lampostwatcher

Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
Posted
16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Tuesday low coming into view on Euro4. From tonight it will be this & Hirlam etc to keep an eye on. You can see how much precip is being thrown to the north of the low on a developing sympathetic trough. It is this (not the main low, which will be over north France)  that will give the 2-5cm the met office is warning about 

3C606D69-AC6F-44D6-9B43-653242DAB9C2.gif

71D93A09-7FF0-4112-A417-F66381AAC055.jpeg

16C72215-1987-4FDD-8ED3-D7AE184A9BCB.jpeg

Really liking that last chart

Loads of snow fans in the game 

 

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted

Plenty of PPN is way north of the Tuesday system. The Pennines and areas East and West look to do just as well as further South and without that element of marginality. Look for the next warnings to extend further north and west.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

ECM ensembles are just as much, interestingly really large differences even for Tuesday's low. Most look broadly similar to the other models but there are a significant minority that are much stronger with the LP and further north, some even take the LP into S.Midlands for example. Not likely scenario given no other models have even hinted at that, but worth mentioning within the rage, especially if it does come in stronger than expected. Also whilst small, I think the risk is still there for the core of the LP precip to come onto the south coast. IF it does then figures on southern coastal counties would likely shoot up to 6-9 inches...however that is a small risk at the moment...

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

So the parra gives heights over Greenland and at the same time the euro high builds!!!!fi granted but slightly annoying

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Alexis Seasoned

Alexis

Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted
7 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Really liking that last chart

Loads of snow fans in the game 

 

A pity those charts are the equivalent of the GFS ultra low res pink snow maps.

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted
41 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We could do without another one of these too, while you're at it, God!

image.thumb.png.f508a7a277c6c74429a9a141d44cf897.png

Backs up my posts this morning though...there is some serious cold to our north east ...my bet is that it will be unleashed south by mid Feb....will the UK be in the firing line or will it head to Greece, as per 06z....?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

I have to say now, with each EPS and GEFS extended, it is really looking like this projected very cold spell in mid Feb is looking less and less likely.

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snefnug Seasoned

snefnug

Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

but worth mentioning within the rage,

Which is what it will be if the entire islands are not snowed in......

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