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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its a shade further North @66-

But either way snow event for England very much on the cards from Late PM tues -

That’s where gfs and ecm differ? Low going ne on gfs ecm carrying on with se direction 

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Just now, snowangel32 said:

Although this is now the SE thread there will be Snow for Scotland, Midlands, SW, Ireland, North and Scotland. But at least if it snows in London it will make the news wich always seems more special. All models show all the UK getting snow wich is the perfect set up at present.

Yep

in my video forecast for FB yesterday I kept referring to Ireland & Scotland as areas to get hit hard this week !

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Not as deep the low  at 102 hours!!5 to 10mb less deep!!

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weather warning for snow just gone out for midlands Tue/Wed from Met Office.

Edited by Fozfoster
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep

in my video forecast for FB yesterday I kept referring to Ireland & Scotland as areas to get hit hard this week !

Where is your video forecast please?

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Still think it's unlikely that Far SW cornwall/Devon is going to get anything note worthy unless the low goes further south into France/colder uppers? Then I think it's best to say you're out of luck 

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep

in my video forecast for FB yesterday I kept referring to Ireland & Scotland as areas to get hit hard this week !

I know Steve it's  all in good jest and belive me I would love you guys to get a pasting its long overdue

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Not as deep the low  at 102 hours!!5 to 10mb less deep!!

Marginally further north

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4 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Although this is now the SE thread there will be Snow for Scotland, Midlands, SW, Ireland, North and Scotland. But at least if it snows in London it will make the news wich always seems more special. All models show all the UK getting snow wich is the perfect set up at present.

People from other regions are welcome to talk about it too. Nobody's stopping them.

This is getting boring now.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep

in my video forecast for FB yesterday I kept referring to Ireland & Scotland as areas to get hit hard this week !

I think the best areas going to b W.Midlands, Wales and potentially central parts of Ireland. In fact I'd say the ;possibility in Ireland is huge, closer to the deep LP as well which has a lot of forcing. So I'd say somewhere in Ireland would be going 1ft from Thursday where the front pivots and is strongest.

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GFS 06z snow M4 north Thurs night 

9D81BC40-1190-4953-B415-3F41CCCD65FB.png

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Phew!!! anyway past the current much talked about few days not much sign long term in regard to any blocking ete

Teits post mentions this.the se movement of areas of low pressure hasn't delivered imo so a change of fortune is needed asap has Feb approaches.

Edited by swfc
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1 minute ago, Drifter said:

People from other regions are welcome to talk about it too. Nobody's stopping them.

This is getting boring now.

Mate it's a joke lighten up a little. You got Snow on the way be happy. 

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS 06z snow M4 north Thurs night 

9D81BC40-1190-4953-B415-3F41CCCD65FB.png

Looks more like the A4074, but let's not split hairs 😉

Still time for corrections south 

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think the best areas going to b W.Midlands, Wales and potentially central parts of Ireland. In fact I'd say the ;possibility in Ireland is huge, closer to the deep LP as well which has a lot of forcing. So I'd say somewhere in Ireland would be going 1ft from Thursday where the front pivots and is strongest.

Aren't the uppers poor over Ireland though like only -3 or so by Thursday? 

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS 06z snow M4 north Thurs night 

9D81BC40-1190-4953-B415-3F41CCCD65FB.png

Bloody hell they've moved the m4 😂😂😂 I would say looking at that Birmingham North.

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Time for Northern England and Scotland to get in on the act by 120 / 126

image.thumb.png.ce83d313fc66cf5981ed2b6ae16b42a3.png image.thumb.png.9bbff88029176c68e7e32d9168498113.png

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This is the point where we need to start seeing heights linking from Greenland to Scandinavia if we're to get a quick route to a prolonged freeze up.

Looking for upgrades here in the next few days.

gfseu-0-138_qkd6.png?556

Edited by Drifter
Typo
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06z GFS has shifted the snow line further north again due to the shape of the low. It is possibly now a northern outlier on that front based on all the other models which have a slightly less sharp attack angle. Ensembles will once again give a feeling of what is likely.

Great run for Midlands north though for sure!

Edited by kold weather
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

06z GFS has shifted the snow line further north again due to the shape of the low. It is possibly now a northern outlier on that front based on all the other models which have a slightly less sharp attack angle. Ensembles will once again give a feeling of what is likely.

Great run for Midlands north though for sure!

 

Typical, more northern bias :whistling:

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2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

This is the point where we need to stay setting heights linking from Greenland to Scandinavia if we're to get a quick route to a prolonged freeze up.

Looking for upgrades here in the next few days.

gfseu-0-138_qkd6.png?556

Yes it has to start showing on the nhp asap if it's going to give any sustained cold.thanks for the chart,it's like being back on BBC snowatch on here good grief!!!!

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1 minute ago, Drifter said:

This is the point where we need to stay setting heights linking from Greenland to Scandinavia if we're to get a quick route to a prolonged freeze up.

Looking for upgrades here in the next few days.

gfseu-0-138_qkd6.png?556

If we're going to get any significant hieghts I think it will come from Scandi just to much energy to our west and Greenland area. That PV lobe is bringing some serious cold to America so expect to see bowling ball lows coming out of the Eastern seaboard.

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Makes you laugh. Judging by recent comments, all the analysis of the models on here, the hours of musing and digesting and  yet whether or not the met office put out their snow warnings is still always the key lol.

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