Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Dunno why evrryone getting excited about tuesdays snow!!it looks so rubbish and measely and narrow!!we gona get naff all out of it unless we see changes!i guess thats how bad things have got this winter though!!oh and to top it off its just a wintry mix to start of with

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think that is as much to do with when the front arrives. It should no surprise that the band turns from mixed and back edge snow to a band of just snow between 4-6pm on the latest ICON.

Could do with a delay. As it is the models gave slightly slowed it down from yesterday.

Icon looks very similar to 09z EXM in terms of Thursday snow distribution. Wales and W.Midlands still perefered BUT it quickly runs out of gas north of there.

 

The dp’s on Tuesday aren’t great - above zero across the south which probably explains why the precip certainly begins as rain .....I guess it depends on how the runner interacts with the front as alluded to earlier by Steve 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Although I want to bury my head in the sand and pretend it isn't happening, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending less cold / milder beyond the week ahead..as is the GEFS 00z mean.

EDM0-240.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Never mind Frosty!  Weve got a cold week ahead and you're bound to see some snow.  We can then look forward to the Sping!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We haven’t had today’s update yet but yesterday showed increased speed of the MJO into phase 7.

On iPad so can’t unfortunately link or still haven’t worked out how to ! but if you just type in NCEP MJO into your search you should be able to find it.

Well into Phase 7 now 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Shelton Bates said:

How is Sussex looking?

Nothing is certain - but you are in with a chance of a couple of inches, looks to me like its going to be all snow as it clears the South East, but any significant lemon North or South could still scupper it - stay tuned to forecasts.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Gfs carries on the trend for Tuesdays low

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chertseystreamer79 Enthusiast

Chertseystreamer79

Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
Posted
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Dunno why evrryone getting excited about tuesdays snow!!it looks so rubbish and measely and narrow!!we gona get naff all out of it unless we see changes!i guess thats how bad things have got this winter though!!oh and to top it off its just a wintry mix to start of with

It's not the snow but the prospect....put a smile on!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFS 6z take on the low at 54 - snow into Ireland, Wales and the North West

image.thumb.png.53fc995d858bcfbf0778733dbfcdea17.png  image.thumb.png.b983efb9af2355ed4fa5010776297791.png  image.thumb.png.8b0a508fa7c36bbed44c82e80de810b4.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Thanks IDO. That is beggining to look alot like the Jan 2013 event to me which gave a solid 5-10cms to a fair few places.

BA- yeah that's why I think time of day may prove importa g, as will the intensity of precip, etc. It looks less snowy the further west you go this morning but still time for a shift.

PS, could be some severe falls of snow for Ireland on Thursday, maybe a narrow zone of 9-12 inches.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Now at 66, looks very snowy for the South and East

image.thumb.png.e7b0355a5bbcfd8a9daf162b26618179.png image.thumb.png.284f04585a1b329a5459a6891914f6eb.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

6th feb...come on frosty...don't panic

I'm not panicking, just giving an accurate view of the current mid / longer term mean trend..at least we have a cold week ahead with snow opportunities for many.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nothing is certain - but you are in with a chance of a couple of inches, looks to me like its going to be all snow as it clears the South East, but any significant lemon North or South could still scupper it - stay tuned to forecasts.

Now you done it we had the Dyer now it's time for the Lemon the South Snow killer lol

SmartSelect_20190127-094458_Firefox.thumb.jpg.6fa48876be0c5b3e9aae9c07b6b4d5e9.jpg

Bang Tidy...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

Everything falling into place if you're looking for snow in the south/se on Tuesday. Could be a whiteout. 

 

As for people moaning about the ensembles, they have so much time to change, I really wouldn't worry about what the mean is for the 6th of February.. it'll probably turn colder very soon.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

And at 72, it's still snowing in the far south-east. However, the GFS precip charts are just for indication only, they're not over accurate BUT it does show what could be possible, ie some areas could get 6-8 hours of falling snow!

image.thumb.png.a24dd34a7ac94346fcb244ce589b0155.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The dp’s on Tuesday aren’t great - above zero across the south which probably explains why the precip certainly begins as rain .....I guess it depends on how the runner interacts with the front as alluded to earlier by Steve 

So i see, it takes until midnight Tuesday for the DP to drop below zero and that`s West Anglia. Saying that 9pm is around zero but that is marginal right there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

A good 8hrs of snow with accumulations around 5-7cm in the south / south east. Best so far this winter for widespread snow in this area. It won’t be smowmagedon but enough for a snowman in places 

2A5C6D0C-BB89-4305-B4A3-A9AE88973CBA.png

77B02B3E-4802-4EC9-A394-8F6C822AB907.png

404029C5-951D-4BD4-86D3-214F65417B75.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
16 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Sounds like typical Brexit type weather Tuesday or is that just a coincidence, aye Mrs May? As for those saying these charts aren't worth getting excited about, down South, these events sure are, and the marginal ones bring the biggest surprises and dumps of snow IMHO. I need the dream charts to be showing it snowing tomorrow as well, before caution can be thrown to the wind, as well I reckon.

I'm looking forward to the very cold easterly, as suggested by some model-runs. But our journey back into the Ice-Age must be a 'managed' transition?:cold::santa-emoji:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Yess First GFS run to lift the low NE 66-72

Would prolong the snow in the SE corner

updated 06z on the left trajectory more NW

96D198A0-1E88-4B42-8184-E03DC0D7A02D.thumb.png.b5fb500a0181adfa3ec56a23a365f180.png5F6ED7CA-1F3E-4180-BFB1-5481D2E6978D.thumb.png.ead44cd71b4a041e616b9d4d9b445b7e.png

And very different to ecm with it continuing se. Much to be resolved 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...