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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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I still urge a lot of caution over Tuesday. It's super-marginal on at least two counts relating to the track of the low. Too far north and the upper air temps won't support snowfall near the centre. Too far south and there simply won't be precipitation at all. It's not as if it's abutting very cold air ahead of it either.

In some ways the greater interest (concern) is the strength of the wind near the western wrap of the low. Could be vicious:

351522693_ScreenShot2019-01-27at07_49_24.thumb.png.d20c972c4d573c0ff6bb7d1bb92a5040.png

292087288_ScreenShot2019-01-27at07_49_34.thumb.png.ef9cb8d6ae0ab7fb3a0cfe022a63ec14.png

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM mean @72 - snow for many

52119961-AAA2-4827-BF04-ECB33A5DE8C7.thumb.png.9ea53682257cb335f6c18da3b56258ac.png

14 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

BANK ☃️

9AE2173E-FE94-4A3E-9432-1D39E2EF25C0.png

WA

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I'm going to have serious words with the Gfs 00z..it's still not read the damned script for February!!!:diablo::oldrofl:

00_348_ukthickness850.png

00_348_uk2mtmp.png

00_360_uk2mtmp.png

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2 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Too much warmth wrapped up in that for my liking:

494334272_ScreenShot2019-01-27at07_52_08.thumb.png.53e659f9b7af03db746efd54a7ab869f.png

Evaportive cooling dream that chart... 

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

mean has the low quite a bit further north at 72..

image.thumb.png.36f7db551356424093dfcb9ab0e3775b.png

The core low on last nights 12z was over mid-Wales, a big correction south. Bearing in mind they usually correct south as we get to T0 and that the GEFS and GEM mean and ops are even further south, that is not a good trend. However, of course, ECM  may now be right!

GFS op Tues/Wed>>771797684_69-515(1).thumb.gif.c7260f635af3208d525a644290e7ebc2.gif GFS mean>>gens-21-1-66.thumb.png.27cc80e7cd352a9ce157e8ae2afe2eb9.png

GEM op>>>gem-0-66.thumb.png.a4549aeaa881b824b9ea4badbaaef448.png

No doubt it will play out today and some snow from the trailing front for many at worst.

The Thursday low is pretty much nailed according to the GEFS. Maybe some rain to snow in the south and the snow line closer to the M62 than the M42. But the time for subtle changes south.

Up to around D12 continue to suggest the well-signposted lull in the vorticity of the Canadian lobe allowing the Atlantic ridge/high to ease further towards mid-latitude. A rather slack setup but maybe staying on the cool side of seasonal by a few degrees but no sign of anything very cold.

London ens>>> graphe3_1000_312_149___.thumb.gif.2e23e8f6c57bee9c01c356f5dc6121c9.gif

The GEFS now go out to Feb 12 and TBH they are rather tame, six weeks after the SSW, I expected much better charts by then. Tentative signs that there is a chance of wedges at higher latitudes but nothing close to the HLB'ing I was expecting with the background signals of the SSW and MJO

Certainly some interest in the next 5 days for some...

 

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Looking at the ECM spread at day 3 .

I really hope we don’t all lose out. If the low tracks too far south then some hideous winds on the southern flank for me and any snow misses the UK.

So utterly vile !

 

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8 hours ago, Day_10 said:

No, people say Wales and the Midlands without realising that that won’t mean yhe entire country. e.g “major event for wales and the midlands” well, no actually.  Completely different between Penarth/Barry at southernmost tip amd Llandudno at northern most.  

Actually I did mean all of Wales, because that’s what that model run showed. 

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

JMA still looks good 

BDE7DD81-7A12-40D7-9341-7B0D663CD3B5.gif

Please verify ! Snow for you guys and not much wind for me here .

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the ECM spread at day 3 .

I really hope we don’t all lose out. If the low tracks too far south then some hideous winds on the southern flank for me and any snow misses the UK.

So utterly vile !

 

Mean looks excellent Nick..

FWIW.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Mean looks excellent Nick..

FWIW.

Yes that looks fine but at this range the ops generally would be better because of the higher resolution . I’d happily take that mean though if it ended up correct .

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ECM snow depth Tues night. As we know - they are often wrong but looking at Nick’s precip charts feels about right 

E64D115F-FF5D-4200-98BF-A0067EE230AB.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Quite a large area of England and Wales ironically affected by snow on 00z EC on Tuesday

EF45379F-218D-4288-B469-C9D950C69BBC.thumb.png.3a0d63398a88ccff15d5a41d04b3d3c0.pngCD063E46-5567-43E9-BCB1-669D41E3DB8E.thumb.png.217866897ac3bbfaba7b1a3304d6a359.png

Wales, western and southern parts of England looking good Thursday night but subject to change 

8851751B-5748-48C8-98A7-054D0AF3950C.thumb.png.1258d6a68e20a380babf77b85c5e80a2.png

I note the Thursday low is now really up for grabs for anyone. We're seeing snow lines setting up anywhere from the south coast to the Pennines in the ensembles this morning. 

Also, many ensembles continue to see Tuesday's event much further north (even a Wales/Midlands blizzard), but surely the ops will be the best guidance now. 

Personally, I will be looking at a blend of EURO4 / ARPEGE / ECM from tomorrow's 00Z onwards for a more definitive idea of what will happen on Tuesday night. 

Oh, and has everyone realized the GFSP snow charts are total junk yet? 

Edited by Man With Beard

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I think there is obviously some marginally on Tuesday. Timing looks important for sure. Simply put the later at night it arrives, the better.

Verbatim it looks like a rain-snow situation in the day and maybe more pure snow at night.

Also with shift south wont make much difference as the front extends a lot ng way into the uk.

SE looks best for Tuesday.

Edited by kold weather

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes that looks fine but at this range the ops generally would be better because of the higher resolution . I’d happily take that mean though if it ended up correct .

How is the mjo looking nick still going into phase 7?,  I've lost my link to the website 

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As for Thursday's setup, more models are dropping the snow line further south. It's good to see that they have also got rid of that unrealistic deep low pressure, the models looks somewhere in the ballpark.

Favoured spot remains W.Midlands at the moment but plenty of time for shifting around.

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Ecm gone south for thursday so big upgrade of you want the cold to linger!!and when the ukmo changes that significantly you do kinds lose all credibility from the model cos that was just ridiculous!!i also mentioned last night how much of an outlier was churning out a run like that!!gfs maybe going slightly south aswell!!and i know steve posted about the mean at 72 hours from ecm but surely we should be  following the op!!

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Even if the low goes too far south there appears to be a strong signal for an occluded front to be thrown out north of it. This would give the 2” that some models are indicating even though the low is too far south. 

18A13119-2E44-4968-A20D-92FFAC2083C1.jpeg

472C0871-6C57-4F2A-AD5C-A43878F605A8.gif

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Uncertainty still on the track on Tuesday could be prolonged heavy snow in the south.  Further  north there could be snow showers. Thursday is uncertain on the track as we approach Thursday this one could be further south there a lot going on that will keep us on our toes..🙂

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35 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Evaportive cooling dream that chart... 

I'd buy that more if the air ahead and to the north was more entrenched cold. 

I'm sure there will be some snow off this but I'm not salivating about the setup.

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45 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I still urge a lot of caution over Tuesday. It's super-marginal on at least two counts relating to the track of the low. Too far north and the upper air temps won't support snowfall near the centre. Too far south and there simply won't be precipitation at all. It's not as if it's abutting very cold air ahead of it either.

In some ways the greater interest (concern) is the strength of the wind near the western wrap of the low. Could be vicious:

351522693_ScreenShot2019-01-27at07_49_24.thumb.png.d20c972c4d573c0ff6bb7d1bb92a5040.png

292087288_ScreenShot2019-01-27at07_49_34.thumb.png.ef9cb8d6ae0ab7fb3a0cfe022a63ec14.png

Yes West. I still think this could deepen faster than expected, it's part of the reason I said stronger and further north. Models have backed away slightly but I think it's still an option. Small risk of blizzard conditions on the back side.

Temperatures look better the further east you go. Timing is also important. I'd suggest most will see at least few hours of serviceable snow, eastern parts maybe nearly all snow if it timed right. Small risk still of something far more significant.

Edited by kold weather

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