Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well I told folk at work thurs-friday there was a big freeze coming next week!!! I never learn but hopefully I can put some spin on it till feb-march-april .

Yes, me too on Friday pm, fortunately didn't do the all users email!  And hours after ramping this with colleagues came the ECM and ensembles shift!  But next Tuesday is definitely spinnable to bridge the gap before the real cold does come!  Nothing to see here!

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 06Z GEFS T850 ensemble for Suffolk...Stonkers are starting to appear; the op, the control and the 'red one' stand out!😁:cold:

image.thumb.png.53f84b6a27677886c968f9dbf2195c13.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well I told folk at work thurs-friday there was a big freeze coming next week!!! I never learn but hopefully I can put some spin on it till feb-march-april .

2020 you mean? 😄

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, me too on Friday pm, fortunately didn't do the all users email!  And hours after ramping this with colleagues came the ECM and ensembles shift!  But next Tuesday is definitely spinnable to bridge the gap before the real cold does come!  Nothing to see here!

Well at least we now know who to blame.  You went against the code! Never talk about it with others!

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, DCee said:

Are we all in agreement yet that cold (snow) is highly likely (inevitable) for January and start of February away from Scotland? 

And into February chances increase but still remains very low? 

Back in December when I saw these Synoptics establish themselves I told everyone it’s likely we wouldn’t see a snow flake in Cambridgeshire this winter.

So far I’m on the money! Bring on spring I say!

Nothing is inevitable. However, we have an increasing chance of cold and snow as we get into early Feb. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm much more positive about cold hitting sooooon , background noise was for a colder end to Jan and a cold Feb , currently there is an indication this is on course . The MO also hints at this , the Models so far today are looking at a wintry outlook too , details will always be uncertain at this range .

 

I'm anticipating some decent charts as we approach the end of the week into the weekend.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Preferred it the way it was myself, it wasn't working the other way because a lot of forum members weren't bothering to follow the rules & I guess the mods got fed up of constantly moving non model related posts to the banter thread. 

So because of the way it is now I find myself having  to trawl through a load of crud posts to see what I want to see, model discussion & not much point telling me to go look at the other thread because I expect the majority, especially from those posters I'm most interested in reading what they have to say, will post in this thread although if I'm lucky they'll cross post into the other model discussion thread so I can go read it in there. 

If they had set this thread up so that banter was only allowed outside of those times when model runs are actively rolling out then it wouldn't be so bad but as it is right now this change imo is not a good one. 

I don't mind the idea of the two threads but I'd just ask that if people do some model analysis they post it in both threads and keep the OT/one liners to this thread. That way I can just give this thread a miss without fear of missing some good posts. 🙂

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Euro4 looking good tomorrow night into Tuesday for many parts of Scotland, parts of Ireland and far NW of England. Temperatures and dew points falling quickly as the front moves through bringing heavy snow showers. Good news for Scotland’s ski resorts 🙂

8242BB3E-4CF2-4EB0-A190-2377A4CF814A.thumb.gif.b5cc82cf8c5c6b3955af21a145ac1d5f.gif

5500E22F-A64E-4A14-AD1C-EF0830A6F684.thumb.gif.e8950b0da0e53d20357e50ed47f0a0e3.gif

9248DCE7-BCF4-4C6C-AE51-485C4735CA97.thumb.gif.e50113db9769f0370d07ac1248adaaee.gif

F9EC5AD5-9A12-4525-AF08-1862092CB08E.thumb.gif.afc30c7e89c605b8e9dfa065130d6f9c.gif

CDC9C024-EFB4-42C1-8EF7-5116BE3C52F9.thumb.gif.e757828e3fc2db23cc68bdc6b72e6b35.gif

Next run should tell more about the snow shower risk for England and Wales.

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The met office forecast thread is here:

Lots of discussion in there about the meto forecasts....

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well this mornings output suggests that unless there is some utterly spectacular turnaround, an easterly is off the table for now. In fact the 06z swingometers suggest the 25th of January may be quite mild. One exception is P18 but that is the only exception.

image.thumb.png.f999ba11db59524c93effd20d67d789f.pngimage.thumb.png.4f8ca41d1903e3227863acd321c0333d.png 

Longer term though the cold signal is building still and unlike the whole easterly saga this hasn't been out of the blue, suggesting some persistent background signal may be driving it (rather than a volatile and unpredictable signal). Most seem to be getting their cold pool in from a Euro trough rather then some strong northern blocking. P1 has a cold arctic airmass waiting in its wings.

image.thumb.png.40b85afa65d77d253eb4a61ee9a0d2d4.pngimage.thumb.png.fb0599671ea266bc60f842465e153904.png 

Lets hope the Atlantic doesn't fire up from the NE Canada cold pool, its remarkable how far back that cold pool has been pushed back east.

image.thumb.png.92841fd93ad19760cf0764250cbff8c8.png

  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Ian mentioned JMA a couple of years ago as a model taken into consideration at Meto. Not a model to be dismissed, for sure.

I think ECM has this one but 2bh so much is happening within the out put from placement of the high to depth of the low to precipitation type so forgive it they are all over the place...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With a cold NWesterly, the Cheshire Gap has often given the Midlands some productive streamers that appear out of nowhere. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, kar999 said:

With a cold NWesterly, the Cheshire Gap has often given the Midlands some productive streamers that appear out of nowhere. 

Fully expecting that. Seen it so many times here in this setup, and troughs in the flow will increase the shower risk more widely.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot colder this week though just if temps were a tad lower then Forecast I suspect there would be more snow around

  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Next run should tell more about the snow shower risk for England and Wales.

Just found something on Weather.us that will be of interest regarding EURO4.

it actually goes out to +54 on here, rather than the +48 on weatheronline.

Handy moving forward.

It already goes to Tuesday 12pm from the 06z run as seen below.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/great-britain/snow-depth/20190122-1200z.html

 

0BEE9876-2AFB-4F51-8BA9-4525A1463FF6.jpeg

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Monday night Tuesday seems to be an elevation event for snow ete.Snow showers will follow but I suspect they will be well scattered.things then settle down threw the week.just standard Jan for me altho I guess given the winter so far a change.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like France will do better than most of us snow-wise on Tuesday/Weds from the active cold front sweeping SE, the front stalling and occluding through France by Tuesday night, the benefits of a cold continental landmass away from maritime influence in what is normally a marginal NWly flow for lowland UK.

 5c4468ea9125b-1.thumb.png.341fe2f78cc24cfd3f2ba3072d5a1c6a.pngECMWF_066_FR_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.2dca574859d723518c67d98c22ae9de3.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.f3ff5f128d5bd70e07833fb1334800c6.gif

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
  • Sad 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looks like France will do better than most of us snow-wise on Tuesday/Weds from the active cold front sweeping SE, the front stalling and occluding through France by Tuesday night, the benefits of a cold continental landmass away from maritime influence in what is normally a marginal NWly flow for lowland UK.

 

Shows what a difference a continental climate makes! Marginality much less of an issue. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

I don't mind the idea of the two threads but I'd just ask that if people do some model analysis they post it in both threads and keep the OT/one liners to this thread. That way I can just give this thread a miss without fear of missing some good posts. 🙂

You do raise an interesting point, NS...There were two distinct types of lectures I attended, as an undergraduate:

Those that were humorous conveyed buckets of information and (as they were deliberately tailored for those who wanted to learn) were a godsend; those that were straight-faced and 'serious' (some were even egocentric) however, were more-often-than-not the best cure for insomnia I've yet to discover...

Each to their own?👍

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looks like France will do better than most of us snow-wise on Tuesday/Weds from the active cold front sweeping SE, the front stalling and occluding through France by Tuesday night, the benefits of a cold continental landmass away from maritime influence in what is normally a marginal NWly flow for lowland UK.

 5c4468ea9125b-1.thumb.png.341fe2f78cc24cfd3f2ba3072d5a1c6a.pngECMWF_066_FR_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.2dca574859d723518c67d98c22ae9de3.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.f3ff5f128d5bd70e07833fb1334800c6.gif

Still a lot of wiggle room there nick.

S-e/ quadrant...

Could have some decent (ish) back edge..

As the front falls into the continent!!

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, tight isobar said:

Still a lot of wiggle room there nick.

S-e/ quadrant...

Could have some decent (ish) back edge..

As the front falla into the continent!!

I don't trust the GFS precipitation charts showing snow in the south, EC seem to have better representation probably because the model has better vertical resolution / more layers, EC still showing little snow in the south from this front away from hills as per 00z.

Be nice to be surprised otherwise, not often see snow in the south on backedge of front with cold NW flow in behind.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For me, the interest is after the front has passed. There's always unexpected shower activity coming off the Irish Sea. Nothing significant obviously... but whatever falls out the sky will be snow.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Banbury said:

I'm much more positive about cold hitting sooooon , background noise was for a colder end to Jan and a cold Feb , currently there is an indication this is on course . The MO also hints at this , the Models so far today are looking at a wintry outlook too , details will always be uncertain at this range .

 

I'm anticipating some decent charts as we approach the end of the week into the weekend.

We've been hearing about background noise since November now. It's just that; background noise.

We've also seen 'decent' charts (from a cold perspective) which have not come to anything. Hope springs eternal - actually, I'd rather Spring springs eternal! 

  • Like 6
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...