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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Richard Fisher Enthusiast

Richard Fisher

Posted
  • Location: BS15 8bx
  • Location: BS15 8bx
Posted
18 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Seems a fair forecast looking at latest model output. Sorry, but cant see the point you are trying to make.

It’s in response to the many posts about the Beeb weather forecast for Tuesday not even mentioning a potential snow event.

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
2 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

It’s in response to the many posts about the Beeb weather forecast for Tuesday not even mentioning a potential snow event.

Beeb weather is meteogroup these days, so i take v little notice.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Beeb weather is meteogroup these days, so i take v little notice.

To be fair, you did say in the regional thread that Tuesday/Wednesday was looking like a non event in response to the metoffice latest fax update.  Could well be a non event of course and I suppose they have to mention the potential.

Edited by Don
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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
Just now, Don said:

To be fair, you did say in the regional thread that Tuesday/Wednesday was looking like a non event.  Could well be of course and I suppose the Metoffice have to mention the potential.

Yep. Stand by that. Meto are part of govt caution these days re risk. Not seen in my yoof.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
7 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z clearly hasn't read the script for February!!:gathering:

12_336_mslp850.png

12_336_uk2mtmp.png

12_348_ukthickness850.png

I think it has, bit sends the northern blocking up through us instead of to our west.

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

On a night shift finally caught up with the many posts. Mainly chilled if IMBY but understandable when snow is on the line lol. We are all concentrating on the lows on Tuesday and Thursday but there are loads of showers packing in for the whole of the UK wouldn't suprises me it they join and formed a more organised band in the unstable flow. Currently most of the UK looks like seeing snow at some point next week. Met and BBC are currently covering all bases.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
2 hours ago, Richard Fisher said:

You gotta laugh!  to add to the confusion this the latest from the met office (Bristol and surrounding area)

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Becoming wet during Tuesday, with the potential for disruptive snow overnight into Wednesday. Further rain, perhaps preceded by snow, on Thursday. Overnight frost and ice is likely.

Updated: 00:35 on Sun 27 Jan 2019 GMT

I'd take that. Seems pretty messy. Marginal springs to mind.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep. Stand by that. Meto are part of govt caution these days re risk. Not seen in my yoof.

Would'nt be surprised to see a little surprise this week bb.

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

GFS has Thursdays low further south.. By quite abit actually! UKMO doesn't look great for the end of the week snow wise (Southern wise) but cold air may come in for a time behind it before the next Beast of a low arrives.. No end to this pattern for at least a week

Doubt GFS would produce much Snow away from North England though an improvement by at least 50 miles South shift as a guess or more of the Low on Thursday..

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

Quite liked the 120 UKMO until the 144h chart just see that low our west ruining the chances of getting anything towards Greenland sustained

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted
1 minute ago, billyc said:

GFsP deepening and taking Tuesdays low slightly further North than it's 18Z last night, 

18Z

gfs-0-72_trv8.png

0Z

gfs-0-66_rpy0.png

 

Don't expect you want to be in the centre of the low though.. Looks good if your north of it..

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)

A slight northward correction on the latest FAX charts for Tuesday potentially bringing the snow risk to Southern counties!

Latest (48 hrs)

45228451-7827-4C30-8019-6CADC5F0706C.png

Yesterdays (60 hrs)

8DE0F65C-954D-4793-9202-45BA8D2D1549.png

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

Well I never... What a great set of 12z's last night!! ECM and UKMO looking fantastic. UKMO this morning maybe a slight slight downgrade but that's way too far out to have any faith in! GFSP and UKMO still giving the south/south east a potent snow event Tuesday, and Thursday still has potential as that low is hopefully weakening a tad and becoming less of a storm.

 

ECM 00z should be rolling soon.. Here's to another great day!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

The track of the low on Tuesday is still undecided with ecm taking it further south once its traveled west to east along the south of the country.  This then has big impacts on where Thursday’s goes.

Edited by That ECM
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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The track of the low on Tuesday is still undecided with ecm taking it further south once its traveled west to east along the south of the country. 

Unless it goes way north or way south into France, I feel like it's going to be okay for S/SE England atleast for snow?

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

ECM dives the main low south-east into central France at day 6 leaving us in a NE'ly.  Good trends...

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

 

Edited by mulzy
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Unless it goes way north or way south into France, I feel like it's going to be okay for S/SE England atleast for snow?

The exact track will determine who gets rain. Who gets rain-snow and who gets just snow. Still undecided but us on the coast and just inland are going to need luck to see anything white fall I feel. Now how far inland the line is to see snow? Who knows.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC is a corker!!

144

image.thumb.png.636e39e36d52b0c426bbfb142c9ca839.png

image.thumb.png.7712ac63f4e9a456cb35b942c9458f75.png

Yes, it keeps the -6c isotherm over most of the country, at odds with forecasts of milder at end of week.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, it keeps the -6c isotherm over most of the country, at odds with forecasts of milder at end of week.

Its a huge upgrade widely!!

Million miles better than UKMET - which has been flapping around like Rod and emu !!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Rayth Community Regular

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is a corker!!

144

image.thumb.png.636e39e36d52b0c426bbfb142c9ca839.png

image.thumb.png.7712ac63f4e9a456cb35b942c9458f75.png

Not a million miles off yesterday’s super UKMO 12z either 

D272DEBA-453B-4866-A12F-6D9F106A8D3E.jpeg

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Hoping it's a bit more adult on here today tbh, yesterday was a debacle!! anyway EC looks pretty good but the dreaded PV to the north west need to weaken asap.

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Will it be a sloppy mess or a snowy one. At times not cold enough but heavy ppn could do the trick. A forecasters nightmare. Highground will be very important this week if your looking for snow

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