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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Just now, shaky said:

I think we can comfortably say ukmo is an outlier tonight lol!!expect it to change back on the 00z!!dunno what went wrong with it to be honest😂

I wouldn't say UKMO is an outlier, looks to me the most reasonable way ahead considering what's going on with the AO and MJO 🙂

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think we can comfortably say ukmo is an outlier tonight lol!!expect it to change back on the 00z!!dunno what went wrong with it to be honest😂

You mean GFS?

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GFS clearly an outlier with pressure right now but still 24hrs to go to be certain.

Hope GFSP keeps going where it has been.

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You all might wanna catch the BBC 21:55 forecast ….the word 'MEH' comes to mind.

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Fax chart @ T120, snow line from just north of London there up towards Manchester. Interesting stuff.

fax120s.gif

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1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

You all might wanna catch the BBC 21:55 forecast ….the word 'MEH' comes to mind.

Don't get me started... A load of rubbish!

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Gfs 18z takes low well to the south, just to weak a feature.

A very plausible option, but until we get some cross model agreement, track and intensity still undecided.

E2A00F2A-01C6-4732-87A3-D0B6C75A543B.thumb.png.a06200b66b574e64214969afce286102.png

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2 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

You all might wanna catch the BBC 21:55 forecast ….the word 'MEH' comes to mind.

No don't spoil it, I haven't watched yesterday's episode yet! 

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GFS T108, vortex you need to grow up, anguished look on face OK, but the top hat, seriously, smugness will come back to bite you in February!

image.thumb.jpg.affec4631cf273de8b5dd0d0d33a8a30.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T108, vortex you need to grow up, anguished look on face OK, but the top hat, seriously, smugness will come back to bite you in February!

image.thumb.jpg.affec4631cf273de8b5dd0d0d33a8a30.jpg

Look at your face, you big disgrace, chucking your cold all over the place, we will we will want you....

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Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

Dodgy??? Good or bad dodgy...??

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

Nice that FAX-gate is put to bed. We can sleep easily now. 😔

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Dodgy??? Good or bad dodgy...??

Bad 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

Presumably MOGREPS must be further south in its track....I can’t make out why otherwise they would do this given the rest of the output we are privy to (with the old GFS the exception to this of course....but I highly doubt they would modify a UKMO Fax based upon the GFS det.)

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10 minutes ago, Liima said:

No don't spoil it, I haven't watched yesterday's episode yet! 

BBC are tosh..

METO app still goes heavy snow for much of SE UK, much more reliable than BBC. Even if METO vs every model I would still back METO.

I think London and South East will be the winners this time!

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16 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

You all might wanna catch the BBC 21:55 forecast ….the word 'MEH' comes to mind.

Just to put some perspective 

They didn't have a clue it was quite clear - white blobs over England and Wales , I don't think I can recall so much uncertainty at such a short time period , she also said about the LP at the end of the week, we don't where the air will be coming from - some will have rain but some will have snow 

Edited by Banbury

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Dont like the trend to deepen that low...

Guess the beeb forecast not great for coldies then!!

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

As usual it's gone south....really no surprise....9 times out of 10 they do....

 

That does bring in some colder air though so rough with the smooth.

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BBC 9.55pm had country almost dry Tues/Thursday apart from Snow showers.  Then potentially milder. WTF

On 22/01/2019 at 05:43, Essex Easterly. said:

I stayed up all night to see a bit of sleet and only got icy rain lol

 

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

That's updated earlier than usual on meteociel - plus even though the valid timestamps on the top left are correct, the run timestamp in the top right shows it as being from the 00z run?

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont like the trend to deepen that low...

Guess the beeb forecast not great for coldies then!!

They said it’ll be “less cold,milder” by weekend.

 

laughing stock they really are.

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Re UKMO 120 and fax charts.. I’m confused now ad I thought the UKMO this afternoon was a stunner, if the met have made a change on the Fax then surely it cannot be for the better?

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Just now, SnowLover87 said:

BBC 9.55pm had country almost dry Tues/Thursday apart from Snow showers.  Then potentially milder. WTF

 

So they have the front even further north than EC then??

EC kept the north cold right thru..

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