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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Totally agree with all of that. Moreso my location for example. There will be a very narrow margin of error that makes anything other than a bit of backedge snow unlikely for me. But nice still to know there is a chance at least! 👍

This such an interesting scenario. Icon for Tuesday is a little upgrade for the south. Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning for here on the met has change with more back end snow. But I’ve seen every weather symbol bar fog and sun(it’s at night) so far. They are adjusting with new data like the rest of us and they will adjust many more times yet. 

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Could be north of the M4 event after all on Thursday, colder air holding on further south, in fact North Midlands look like the place to be but a sleety mess further south too.:oldsmile:

icon-0-120.png

icon-1-120.png

icon-2-120.png

Edited by snowray
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1 minute ago, Andy Bown said:

Is there a chance of a week like early February 2009? Several 'sliders' brought snow events that briefly melted in between but also built up accumulations such that by the end of the week it was a significant amount. Admittedly that started on a Monday with an Easterly and powdery snow before the first 'slider' occurred.

2nd to 6th, was cool!

archives-2009-2-2-12-0.pngarchives-2009-2-4-12-0.pngarchives-2009-2-6-12-0.png

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1 hour ago, That ECM said:

FWIW and let’s be honest it’s a punt but looking at the output I would like to be in the north Cotswolds. Stow on the wolds maybe. I think it’s more likely to be all snow.  Or  snowshill just down the road😄

Difficult to say if it will even make it this far north!

These lows ‘usualy’ trend south, however on this occasion, and looking at that ECM mean there does look to be a chance that it will have enough ommph to track in the channel- instead of France.

May of us will be watching the track very closely I should think ;) .

 

 

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lovely Thursday - that's what i am banking on!!!!

image.thumb.png.cf3c818d7ab3a66d022187f3059bbeae.png

Heavy continuous snowfall for hours.

South easterly for our region is dry as a bone

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33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You’ll have to forgive the southerners ...

not often they see a channel low showing within 72 hours!  

You're spot on there BA!

If the "beast from the east" was in mythical hibernation between 1991 and last March, the true "channel low" is in hibernation with the dinosaurs. I don't think I've ever seen one like this within T72 in the internet era. It is the nirvana for the snow starved south coast, but it's the most perilous snow set-up of all. Usually a very marginal affair, it relies on a front running in a straight line pretty much west to east, with the centre as close to the channel coast as possible without actually getting to the coast. 9 out of 10 times it goes wrong and we (the southern coasters) get nothing or flooded; but in the 1 or less times out of 10 times that it will fall perfect (in theory - because I've never actually seen it in 25 years living on this coast), then, snowfalls of 10cm, 20cm, 30cm, dare I say even 40cm or 50cm are possible if the intensity is spot on. There's no risk / reward like it in UK weather.

So I'm feeling very nervous right now. Do you know, it was actually a relief to look through all 51 ensemble members and see only about 8 with a really good snowfall for the south coast - it softened my expectations somewhat, and that's calmed me down!

If the best op runs for the south coast become the norm this time tomorrow though... netweather will need to set up a crisis hotline for those south of the M4.

For those north of the M4, do not worry - your snow will come later in the week, have no doubt - or maybe even Tuesday night according to many of the ensembles ;)

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Just now, frosty ground said:

South easterly for our region is dry as a bone

Not with that type of evolution.

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ICON snow:

anim_fpv4.gif   

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not with that type of evolution.

Worth tracking either way but I’m not a fan of a south easterly 

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ICON snow depth maxes out around Buckmore park Kent 10-11inches

DE5B4BE1-1244-4F0A-8D76-606180AA43F5.thumb.png.929fb627e8d8e7a0a41719a1637b33d3.png

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

ICON snow:

anim_fpv4.gif   

Can see the moment when suddenly the precip intensifies everywhere, I presume that is a lower resolution time frame kicking in? If so then wouldn't that over do the snow depths for the SE?

Edited by AppleUK 123

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6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Worth tracking either way but I’m not a fan of a south easterly 

Thats a frontal zone, the mountains wont kill that PPN - granted it will be weaker than if the mountains were not there but still could get loads - i will just dig out a retro chart.

EDIT : meant wont kill that much of the PPN - it will kill some - see Icon charts - posted below - you can see it weakens but doesn't mean you cant get any in Manchester and surroundng areas.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

You're spot on there BA!

If the "beast from the east" was in mythical hibernation between 1991 and last March, the true "channel low" is in hibernation with the dinosaurs. I don't think I've ever seen one like this within T72 in the internet era. It is the nirvana for the snow starved south coast, but it's the most perilous snow set-up of all. Usually a very marginal affair, it relies on a front running in a straight line pretty much west to east, with the centre as close to the channel coast as possible without actually getting to the coast. 9 out of 10 times it goes wrong and we (the southern coasters) get nothing or flooded; but in the 1 or less times out of 10 times that it will fall perfect (in theory - because I've never actually seen it in 25 years living on this coast), then, snowfalls of 10cm, 20cm, 30cm, dare I say even 40cm or 50cm are possible if the intensity is spot on. There's no risk / reward like it in UK weather.

So I'm feeling very nervous right now. Do you know, it was actually a relief to look through all 51 ensemble members and see only about 8 with a really good snowfall for the south coast - it softened my expectations somewhat, and that's calmed me down!

If the best op runs for the south coast become the norm this time tomorrow though... netweather will need to set up a crisis hotline for those south of the M4.

For those north of the M4, do not worry - your snow will come later in the week, have no doubt - or maybe even Tuesday night according to many of the ensembles ;)

I think the feature is a bit rounded ....a flatter runner is safer ......

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

ICON snow depth maxes out around Buckmore park Kent 10-11inches

DE5B4BE1-1244-4F0A-8D76-606180AA43F5.thumb.png.929fb627e8d8e7a0a41719a1637b33d3.png

What period does this cover Steve?? I'm off to Tenerife tomorrow morning for 4 nights flying from Manchester. I hope my journey from Manchester to nw Wales is ok on Thursday night .. 

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ICON Thursday low: anim_gso5.gif

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Worth tracking either way but I’m not a fan of a south easterly 

Was not living here then but surely this delivered.

image.thumb.png.fa08869f6ee50ce7ccc170496961c8c7.png

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You're spot on there BA!

If the "beast from the east" was in mythical hibernation between 1991 and last March, the true "channel low" is in hibernation with the dinosaurs. I don't think I've ever seen one like this within T72 in the internet era. It is the nirvana for the snow starved south coast, but it's the most perilous snow set-up of all. Usually a very marginal affair, it relies on a front running in a straight line pretty much west to east, with the centre as close to the channel coast as possible without actually getting to the coast. 9 out of 10 times it goes wrong and we (the southern coasters) get nothing or flooded; but in the 1 or less times out of 10 times that it will fall perfect (in theory - because I've never actually seen it in 25 years living on this coast), then, snowfalls of 10cm, 20cm, 30cm, dare I say even 40cm or 50cm are possible if the intensity is spot on. There's no risk / reward like it in UK weather.

So I'm feeling very nervous right now. Do you know, it was actually a relief to look through all 51 ensemble members and see only about 8 with a really good snowfall for the south coast - it softened my expectations somewhat, and that's calmed me down!

If the best op runs for the south coast become the norm this time tomorrow though... netweather will need to set up a crisis hotline for those south of the M4.

For those north of the M4, do not worry - your snow will come later in the week, have no doubt - or maybe even Tuesday night according to many of the ensembles ;)

Excellent post. Let's stay grounded on those 8 members and look for upgrades - cos I think we need them.

Interestingly I've just gone back to my favourite snow event in the south of all time - Feb 6/7/8 1996 - and found a very similar pattern of uppers. That week we got a bit less of the "runner" and much more of a stall.....but it shows that in these current conditions it is possible for the precipitation to click for snow. But...as you say....that event is a unique one for me in 26 years now of living in the S/SW, so my own feet are very firmly fixed and not in tap dancing mode yet..... 

 

 

 

Edited by Catacol
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Thursday's precipitation type charts from the ICON.

icon1.png

icon2.png

icon3.png

icon4.png

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON snow depth maxes out around Buckmore park Kent 10-11inches

DE5B4BE1-1244-4F0A-8D76-606180AA43F5.thumb.png.929fb627e8d8e7a0a41719a1637b33d3.png

That’s total snowfall without any thawing .....the actual depth is less but this run keeps thursdays front as snow 

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The thing that worries me about this system was touched upon a few pages back and thats onshore flow as the LP Advances from west to east or whatever track it takes. Usually in Channel Low Set-Ups of the Past and the real ones of ficton like Man With Beard just said about we have entrenched cold over the Uk and a huge Scandi Block to the East, the Dp's are cold enough on the Continent to advect into the Uk from France and the Low Countries to keep it less than marginal. This Set-Up worries me in that respect hugely, as others have said with elevation across the Downs, Chilterns, Salisbury Plain etc it should not be a problem but I can see this being a rain to snow/slush event for low lying areas.

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Just now, MattStoke said:

Thursday's precipitation type charts from the ICON.

icon1.png

icon2.png

icon3.png

icon4.png

An improvement compared to the 12Z but if I was being picky I would like a wider band of snow and more intensity associated with it, as well as a slower movement northwards.

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IF next week played out as per 18z Icon many areas get deep snow fall Tues & Thurs....I reckon Hertfordshire is the sweet spot 😉

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

The thing that worries me about this system was touched upon a few pages back and thats onshore flow as the LP Advances from west to east or whatever track it takes. Usually in Channel Low Set-Ups of the Past and the real ones of ficton like Man With Beard just said about we have entrenched cold over the Uk and a huge Scandi Block to the East, the Dp's are cold enough on the Continent to advect into the Uk from France and the Low Countries to keep it less than marginal. This Set-Up worries me in that respect hugely, as others have said with elevation across the Downs, Chilterns, Salisbury Plain etc it should not be a problem but I can see this being a rain to snow/slush event for low lying areas.

To add to that, intensity surely will be a factor. Very high intensity will help chances, low intensity, more chance of rain.

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Despite the growing sense of euphoria, I've had rather relaxing day, having only occasionally dipped into the thread...That said, I'm starting to get a very juvenile sense of excitement...Potential. Potential. Potential!:yahoo:

Sidney's taking preemptive action, as we speak: image.thumb.png.1950d461b581285c7157b8f19f3d3512.png

But, most importantly: be sure to keep a level head:image.thumb.png.8a3e925276e42ba8f14bdf27e2b3e73c.png 

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