Cold hunt - models and chat

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Typically rainfall to snow accumulation ratios are what, 1:8 or 1:10? so 20mm would correspond to 16/20cm of snowfall within a 6 hour period.. WOW.

As I say often on here, I'm not greedy, happy with half that so let's just round up to 10cm, very nice. The heavy PPN is very close to London, would be chaos for the late commute home towards Kent if its all snow.

[Mike Poole]

While we are in between runs, here's my occasional CFS summary.  These charts are the 9 last Z500 anomalies for February.  You need to look at CFS with a probabilistic view, therefore not just one run!  Here they are:

-AO for sure, -NAO most of them. 

[PsychedelicTony]

History tells us that these events always correct futher south than modelled. A one liner is sometimes all that's needed!

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

While we are in between runs, here's my occasional CFS summary.  These charts are the 9 last Z500 anomalies for February.  You need to look at CFS with a probabilistic view, therefore not just one run!  Here they are:

-AO for sure, -NAO most of them. 

NAO doesn`t look like budging for now mate

[Ben Sainsbury]

5 minutes ago, PsychedelicTony said:

History tells us that these events always correct further south than modelled. A one liner is sometimes all that's needed!

Obviously because of all our home biases, being in Reading, the ECM mean is probably a little too north for for an all snow event for M4 southwards, so a southward correction would be welcomed. I don't think I've found a potential snow event so nerve-wracking before!

Can we all compromise here, Tuesday = Midlands southwards & Thursday = Midlands northwards?

Edited January 26, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

NAO doesn`t look like budging for now mate

CFS charts average for the whole month, agree it may take longer than the first week to take hold.  If it does if course, but it is likely as outcome down here in the humble troposphere, of the SSW.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Sparkiee storm]

48 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just going by the amount of precipitation you would expect to fall from a low of that depth I expect more snow than being shown on those depth charts. IMO 10cm around the sweet spot and widely 6-10cm around it. More snow is showing than expected for Thursday though 

Why is that chart giving everyone in the Midlands the L, that's not very nice of the ECM 

In all seriousness though, awesome looking event even though it wont verify like this. But could be a few surprises next week by looking at all the charts and reading what's been said in here.

Good luck to all.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Sparkiee storm

[Tim Bland]

ECM mean gives higher snowfall totals for both events, this is for Bedford

[bluearmy]

I continue to be confused by those NAO charts .....the gefs, eps and geps are all negative NAO post 29th jan 

[CSC]

What is the best scenario here for a dumping of snow SE UK? 

I have read earlier that if everything goes right, somewhere in SE could get 1ft..

Is this true?

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM mean gives higher snowfall totals for both events, this is for Bedford

Yup and more interesting is the mean has a slacker low at 144 hours compared to the op!!could be snowy week!!

[Snipper]

When should I come back for the downgrade and tears?

[bluearmy]

Just now, CSC said:

What is the best scenario here for a dumping of snow SE UK? 

I have read earlier that if everything goes right, somewhere in SE could get 1ft..

Is this true?

If everything went right we’d by living in igloos mate .........

short answer is atop the highest hills in Kent or Sussex you could see some deep snowcover by wed am ......but better to wait till Tuesday first ......

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I continue to be confused by those NAO charts .....the gefs, eps and geps are all negative NAO post 29th jan 

Yep them graphs are confusing. They change daily so not a lot of help really . 

[That ECM]

Just now, Snipper said:

When should I come back for the downgrade and tears?

April

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

When should I come back for the downgrade and tears?

About twenty past nine when icon takes the low through Paris .......

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

When should I come back for the downgrade and tears?

About 9-45 pm should do it !!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

When should I come back for the downgrade and tears?

around 10.15, my tears to when GFS sends thursday's low through Scotland

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

April

You can bet there will be immense northern blocking by then!

[WelfordRd]

I’m getting confused. Isn’t this the Model Thread?. Just caught up this evening and have had to double check I wasn’t in the South East regional thread? Lol

Edited January 26, 2019 by WelfordRd

[chris pawsey]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

About 9-45 pm should do it !!!

No, just bumped into ECM down the pub... tonights run will be a amazing then he'll wake up with a headache and a massive downgrade... potentially 

Edited January 26, 2019 by chris pawsey
Spelling

[kold weather]

ECM ensembles starting to sniff out a much deeper low on Tuesday. I think somewhere in the 980s is probable but long way to go yet.

18z will be interesting to see whether or not they carry on going north. I think though the models this evening is about as far north as it's likely, anything beyond that gets too extreme IMO.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Random fact but OK

Did you know the country of Wales has a land area the size of wales

[CSC]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If everything went right we’d by living in igloos mate .........

short answer is atop the highest hills in Kent or Sussex you could see some deep snowcover by wed am ......but better to wait till Tuesday first ......

 Thats true..

Kent and Sussex are sweet spots at the moment.. tomorrow maybe northern Scotland..

look outside Tuesday and see!

As some have said before, 'I will believe it when I shovel it' 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, WelfordRd said:

I’m getting confused. Isn’t this the Model Thread?. Just caught up this evening and have had to double check I wasn’t in the South East regional thread? Lol

You’ll have to forgive the southerners ...

not often they see a channel low showing within 72 hours!  

My snow line not adjusted  ........ stick with derby across to stoke and n Wales  for now.