Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Just now, Lloyds32 said:

Looks pretty wet in Bristol on 'that' chart.

I was replying to someone else in the SE as it was showing rain but turns to snow as it moves east!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

We can throw as many cautionary tales out as we like but we know half the members have bought the output and are fully expecting 🤣🤣 and I would be disappointed as opportunities like these are rare. 

True these are rare . I really hope it lands and can deliver some good snow . 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The mean for GFS ensembles for first week of Feb is on the way back down as more runs sniff out a continuation of the cold theme and blocking later.

graphe3_1000_261_80___.gif

I think tonight's ECM ensembles will be more positive about long term cold prospects than this mornings as well, we will see.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Lloyds32 said:

Looks pretty wet in Bristol on 'that' chart.

Looking  at that some what interesting along the east  coast and Kent nice red bit near kent

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

JMA is onboard. Who’s viewing ECM from behind the sofa tonight 🤞

 

 

 

not me.....models show what the weather might do, not what it will do 😜

on a different note, ppn charts T48+ are about as much use as tits on fish......nice to look at but not worth much per se....I'll stick to the hi-res models sub T36/48 to save astronomical prozac bills...lol.......modelling does look very nice for my part of the world, but I will not, repeat, WILL NOT say anything to the wife and kids until white stuff starts falling out of the sky! 😁

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, TomW said:

I was replying to someone else in the SE as it was showing rain but turns to snow as it moves east!

Ok fair point. I live near Bristol, not expecting anything. Waiting February...in line with the meto 😀😂

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Looks pretty wet in Bristol on 'that' chart.

The voice of doom has arrived. Do you ever post anything positive?

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Looks pretty wet in Bristol on 'that' chart.

isn't it a bit too chilly-looking for you to be out? 🙂

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t base a forecast on GFS ensembles. It’s been all over the place recently. Remember it shouldn’t even exist any more. UKMO / ECM / ICON blend will be more accurate. We will also have Harlam & Euro4 to view soon. Let’s pray for a good ECM

Oh certainly not, but it does at least give us an idea of what the range of options are, and just because they aren't good doesn't mean we can dismiss any solution. The GFS op for example could well be right. Until we get this low formed and have a little more confidence, anything could happen, good or bad.

With that being said, no denying the trend is going in the right direction, and although I first mentioned it on Wednesday as a bit of a wildcard, it has elevated beyond even my wildcard idea!

Paul S - also the GFS para is important. However I'm not too concerned if the odd run drops it here and there, as long as the majority of the runs have at least some sort of reflection I will comfortable enough. Remember the trend is north and stronger. We are probably approaching the northern apex of what is likely on the GFSP but there is still a little more scope for adjustment still.

I won't be around at all this evening, but I will be watching the ECM in spirit (and literally peeking at is from time to time ;) )  Best of luck everyone, remember the 00z ECM had the *worst* of all the models with barely even surface reflection, so anything it shows will be an upgrade from that.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  we are also learning a lot from those excellent back ground signals since November we been talking about the signal that failed to produce anything so far  wouldn’t you say 

Absolutely. Always learning. What would be your top pick?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

The voice of doom has arrived. Do you ever post anything positive?

We spawn negative nancy's in our region, must be something in the water. :crazy: 

Can only think of about 4 posters who write anything positive. :unknw:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Widespread 10-15cm on that run easily!

 ccumu.thumb.png.cc247e94b96133a01b847efec902deca.png

Day off work 👍

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The mean for GFS ensembles for first week of Feb is on the way back down as more runs sniff out a continuation of the cold theme and blocking later.

graphe3_1000_261_80___.gif

I think tonight's ECM ensembles will be more positive about long term cold prospects than this mornings as well, we will see.

EPS did ever so slightly look on way back down at end - haven't been through GEFS - just looked at mean and graph but looks to me like 2 distinct clusters, one with the trough nudging us and the other Easterlies.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFSP higher resolution precipitation charts for Tuesday.

gfsp1.gif

GFSP2.gif

Wowzers.. thats some heavy snow!

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

The voice of doom has arrived. Do you ever post anything positive?

Hey...that's what the chart I quoted showed...I didn't post it. 

Just now, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

isn't it a bit too chilly-looking for you to be out? 🙂

All depends on the track and whether the cold air can be brought in. Some locations will do ok, but its fine margins.

Its chilly yes, not that cold. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Is it just me who thinks the ECM has been garbage this winter so am wondering why so many people are hiding behind sofas ?

UKMO has led the way and is way out in front this winter, I am 100% happy with what it is showing

GFS - People know I hate this model with a passion but even that has been neck a neck with ECM this winter.

In my opinion if UKMO backs away tomorrow morning thats when we need to worry, NOT the ECM this evening

Hi Paul 

Can you post a link to the UKMO charts for me please. 

 

Cheers 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO much more like it. Can the switch be flicked?

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO precipitation charts for Friday

00:00                                                                06:00                                                                12:00

us_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012612_132_18_83.thumb.png.718aa48a2af277b384c01585073ff2b2.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012612_138_18_83.thumb.png.911b5cb20690c67f6b83b8af689ea096.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012612_144_18_83(1).thumb.png.b2cae0bff451c7d574cc8805fbc7d2ef.png

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

Last year end of Feb/March?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The mean for GFS ensembles for first week of Feb is on the way back down as more runs sniff out a continuation of the cold theme and blocking later.

graphe3_1000_261_80___.gif

I think tonight's ECM ensembles will be more positive about long term cold prospects than this mornings as well, we will see.

Low resolution 12Z GFS shows a powerful Russian high 1060 mb moving westwards to our north and ridging towards Greenland.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Paul 

Can you post a link to the UKMO charts for me please. 

 

Cheers 

I know what the Stats show for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and ECM this ECM that, Yada Yada

But the handling of when the weather has started to get "Interesting" around our shores I feel has been handled better by UKMO, remember we would be recovering from a massive Deep Freeze Easterly if the ECM had its way a few weeks back, or been blown towards China if the GFS had that 927mb Low hit the Uk a few weeks back as well

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Is it just me who thinks the ECM has been garbage this winter so am wondering why so many people are hiding behind sofas ?

UKMO has led the way and is way out in front this winter, I am 100% happy with what it is showing

GFS - People know I hate this model with a passion but even that has been neck a neck with ECM this winter.

In my opinion if UKMO backs away tomorrow morning thats when we need to worry, NOT the ECM this evening

Hi Paul.

to be honest, I think all of the Models have seriously underperformed this winter. For me the UKMet Bowing down to the Icon when it said no to the Easterl was a kick in the proverbials 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...