Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS para running by the way guys, out to 48hrs, I'm not going to even bother analysing that!

You know you want to....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cold Winter Aficionado

Cold Winter

Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
Posted

GFSP seems to have ground to a halt, so slow 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

GFSP still sticking with the stronger low solution and in the channel.

Might be very marginal for the coastal locations in the south, and especially the south-west, but the biggest falls of snow always are those that straddle the marginal line and just go the right way, so there is that to take away. It looks kust the right side of marginal, but further north it looks easily cold enough still.

 

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Yorkshirepudding Enthusiast

Yorkshirepudding

Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Not keen on ICON run, that low for Tuesday could be in France by the time it verifies, and then it blows up the big stormy horrid thing for Thursday...(edit...and Friday) what's to like.  onto GFS...

I watched a video from a Met office forecaster earlier, He said that either side of the extreme of the Track the Tuesday Low would take is either the Med and the other side of the spectrum through the Channel. However he stated the most likely track would be the middle of France.. Obviously if it tracks through the Med it’s a fail for the UK and if it tracks through the Channel it could be good for southern UK up to the midlands. But if it tracks through France it would only just clip the most southern parts of the uk..So it’s hard to see based on that video that the Low will track any further north of the Channel however you never know. So it seems we will be holding onto the extreme north Tack  that forecaster believes to be the Channel for any chance of a snow event.. fingers crossed  

Edited by Yorkshirepudding
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFSP has reached 78 and is looking very decent with the channel low ala UKMO with snow showing for most of England and Wales

image.thumb.png.e75b5228791ca9ed1ddb441ce5ecd804.png  image.thumb.png.1ebad4e1a936ee0ab84dbc5850ee83ce.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
Just now, kold weather said:

GFSP still sticking with the stronger low solution and in the channel.

Might be very marginal for the coastal locations in the south, and especially the south-west, but the biggest falls of snow always are those that straddle the marginal line and just go the right way, so there is that to take away.

 

How about South east/ east anglia? Still looking good?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

UKMO showing what I have been promoting for some time just as I was beginning to write it off, strong Atlantic ridge turn of month.

All a bit out of the blue though isn't it with the Atlantic storm dying a death and tracking toward bay of Biscay in line with Meto's forecast tbf.

All models struggling with how to handle this very complex weather pattern which is accentuated by there being cold and a chance of snow in the mix for us.

forum in meltodown, models in melt down, UK in freezer?  

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Jackski4 said:

How about South east/ east anglia? Still looking good?

Yeah should be fine for us down here, especially as we will have the timing more on our side if the GFSP is correct (aka into the evening and overnight).

Any further northward adjustment probably brings sleet/freezing rain into play for the far south of England (within 10 miles of coast) before a quick transition to heavy snow again.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

GFSP seems to have ground to a halt, so slow 

I posted on here last night, the GFSP runs out to 78 then stops for about 20 minutes.  Then it runs out to 174 then stops for another 20 minutes.  God knows why, but there you go.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted

GFS Para T78 on 12z compared to T84 on 6z looks broadly similar in PPN if not a little better IMHO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

UKMO a Peach 

7C5330EE-1AFD-40B8-A0A3-4AA7BF4A377B.thumb.png.76ebaccdcd96a7165a9f847e03cd1d1b.png1F4060D0-56E0-4AE9-A320-D64A22C77767.thumb.png.121c0b112f8077d38bb8db74ab37cf1d.png48A82CBB-A0B0-4387-8AB0-FF6EDD48D8EA.thumb.png.67177dcab3b9b9ac993e75c3ac8b6d1e.png

 

Para also looking good for Tuesday it seems looking at the posts above (will have to check)

The intensity of Tuesdays lows is crucial to how much it ‘spins up’ and subsequently that energy will push it north towards our shores. Not massively confident in its track at this stage though.

beyond that UKMO looks great.

lots of options....... lots of fun. But going forward UKMO is a stellar scenario.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Precip core on the 12z GFS is just offshore. IF that were to come onshore just on the right side of the LP, you'd be in rate of snow probably around 1-2 inches an hour.

Anyway very snowy GFSP, a snowy ARGPE, a reasonable ICON (if not taking the snbow charts verbatim, which I'm not) and GEM is a touch too warm but gets there and is snowy for the east. UKMO is also awesome.

Probably another 24hrs, if this lasts that long then we vcan start to get more excited, but for sure, they are outstanding runs...and goes exactly where I thought it would based on the trends I saw yesterday.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFSP has the low maybe 50 miles further south than on the previous run. Still snow for all of England and Wales.

Nothing in it really. Incredible consistency! 

C21B7007-6D9B-40EF-99C7-1B73FF054C9E.png

3D4A3DF6-EDF9-461F-B19C-381FCD56BB6E.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Remarkable consistency from GFS Parallel bringing another widespread snow event Tuesday night.

t79.thumb.png.a050b2511e7d6fc27eae6271659a2da9.pngt790.thumb.png.af66b1f6e38532650272c458a6ea59b0.png

 

The para really ramps up the channel low, perfect positioning for a southern UK snow event

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...