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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Ukmo slower to the west aswell with the storm .....looks like we may not have our close agreement after all 

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The gfs looks to be disrupting that low out west a bit more rather than phasing it with the heights to our north, the less interaction with that the better.

E1C1C77C-1A1A-4D60-B13C-E177A72834B5.png

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Ukmo lads😍😍😍 what a turnaround at 120 hours!where is the damn low!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ukmo lads😍😍😍 what a turnaround at 120 hours!where is the damn low!!

It's gone threw I think!!!

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo slower to the west aswell with the storm .....looks like we may not have our close agreement after all 

No agreement till storm formation from the Bahamas tomorrow, the models just don't handle these features very well ;) Then we should have a better idea for both Tuesday and Thursday.

2nd low broadly looks like the 06z GFS thus far.

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UKMO 120 PERFECT FOR all of us Thursday???

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Phasegate!  UKMO clearly doesn't phase the lows, not on this timescale anyway, GFS looks like it will, T96 

image.thumb.jpg.bb57c55d7d86bd8f7412cf05d3fb7a66.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9303c8d9ee1600b6583ce9153782e97e.jpg

Difference staggering at this timescale!

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Living in Nottingham, countless snow events, which seemed centred on the area, have trended south at quite short notice ( sometimes even as little as 12-18 hrs out) 

Therefore I won’t be getting too excited / pessimistic until nearer the time!

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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

A long way off this being decided yet!  😂

UKMO 120

 

B350185C-9884-41BA-AFA2-3883EE564D76.gif

Looks a very slack pressure chart good for retaining the cold ahead of the system could be good this bank it 👍

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UKMO T72 to T96 runs that low up the channel. 990mb. From earlier comments this is good for some yes?

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102hrs GFS is almost identical in location, but it is weaker in terms of core pressure at this point then it was on the 06z run.

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Oh!

image.thumb.jpg.49f2ab70749e046f38f522e73de25713.jpg

Edit, and add NH view:

image.thumb.jpg.76533a09638abe5695d3c1c5d6cb8009.jpg

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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How far north would the snow be on the UKMO for Tuesday do people reckon?

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Just now, swfc said:

It's gone threw I think!!!

It’s not phased - yet ....wait for day 6 though as could pull the low  sw and pivot the whole thing sw/ne 

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Northern Hemi profile its to die for on 120 UKMO.... That is primed for HLB's

Screenshot 2019-01-26 at 15.59.49.png

Edited by Rocheydub

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Oh!

image.thumb.jpg.49f2ab70749e046f38f522e73de25713.jpg

Whilst in something of a minority, there were some GFS and eCM ensembles that showed that solution, as an outside bet, its worth keeping an eye on!

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Utter chaos in the modelling !

The GFS and UKMO disagree from day 3 . The Channel Low still there on the latter but even if it verifies the exact track is still up in the air.

On a personal note I don’t won’t it nowhere near here as some models take it much further south in case it blows up. 

You’re very welcome to it ! Especially as it could give some snow on the northern flank .

Edited by nick sussex

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Anyway this ukmo is unbelievable!!!no storm what so ever!!even gfs has slight improvements early on!please ecm make.my night!!

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

OMG best UKMO of the year team !!!

Superb .....

Look at the AO tanking & the atlantic low falling apart!

If only it wasn’t day 6 Ukmo which hasn’t covered itself in glory recently Steve .....however, the NH profile looks very wave reversy ...

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What's clear is that next week is very unclear (in terms of snow detail anyway).

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not phased - yet ....wait for day 6 though as could pull the low  sw and pivot the whole thing sw/ne 

Mets view at the mo but that could change after ukmo 

Edited by That ECM

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