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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Still snow for southern portion

Looks like south/east anglia is very much the sweet spot

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Matthew. Seasoned

Matthew.

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
Posted
6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

It's a good thing that it keeps moving north currently as we don't want it to trend too far south, is that correct ?

The centre of the low overhead your location is best to take advantage of evaporative cooling and when dark if possible

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

It brings snow to southern England and East Anglia, but also a frontal system pushing through Wales, the Midlands, Northern Ireland, Northern England and southern Scotland.

Icon is a lovely run for many BUT it’s to far away to have confidence. Please get to t plus 6

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It brings snow to southern counties of England and East Anglia, but also a frontal system pushing through Wales, the Midlands, Northern Ireland, Northern England and southern Scotland, bringing some snow to these places too for a time..

Yep, quite a bit for SE and East Anglia still 

E13B16EE-365B-4AD3-A146-6F967CE672C8.png

4537F43B-526C-4EB2-BEA7-A8919E9AB9A0.png

775B7E7D-F340-4F9C-8BA5-EA9445A21174.png

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
Just now, shaky said:

Game over for the slider at 96 hours!!!massive storm coming up unless it somehow manages to slacken!!

Quite the contradiction there, game over UNLESS... let it run out! Hopefully it doesn’t keep engaging with the low heights to our north. 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

What is that btw .is it an Essex bed accessory!!!

Black pudding, yum.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Quite the contradiction there, game over UNLESS... let it run out! Hopefully it doesn’t keep engaging with the low heights to our north. 

Pretty much but the there is no south south east winds ahead of the low!!interesting

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Tuesday's low looks more like what I was excpecting it would be from the ICON, but I suspect the north shifts still aren't done yet and the stronger it gets modelled the more likely its going to move more due through the channel then arch ESE/SE due to the digging upper trough .

The 2nd low looks like ECM more or less, as BA said. These double lows are a nightmare to try and forecast though and I wouldn't expect perfect agreement until at least 12z tomorrow, and even then there is probably still 100 miles of wiggle room at least.

Edited by kold weather
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

So has the low gone further south? Game over unless you live on the south coast then.

No, not game over according to icon for Tuesday 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

So has the low gone further south? Game over unless you live on the south coast then.

No. Further north. It brings a frontal system across the UK, giving a brief spell of snow, but also an area of longer spells of snow to southern England and East Anglia. 

Edited by MattStoke
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Second low on Icon looks marginal but with cold air in situ and some snow cover it could still be snow? At least with some evelvation M4 north? 

880A29BC-36B9-46B5-A6D4-D962401EAC95.png

FDD7B8F7-E3CA-4F02-946C-101B63BE8E46.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Not keen on ICON run, that low for Tuesday could be in France by the time it verifies, and then it blows up the big stormy horrid thing for Thursday...(edit...and Friday) what's to like.  onto GFS...

Edited by Mike Poole
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, warrenb said:

Ouch, now both ECM and icon going for a dangerous storm

For newbies, I think people should detail whether they are talking about Tuesday or Thursday.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst we have so many stating how much Thursday could be different come verification , we could be about to get pretty well a full set of ops with a pretty similar solution 

I thought that last night and then the models went and threw a spanner in the works!

Briadly I think the trend is there now, but I'm still not convinced about the strength and exact location, any weaker and the whole thing shifts SE somewhat and I'm always very sceptical about interaction between LPs developing the Bahamas and shooting NW. Rarely in all my years of hurricane watching (14 now) do these frontal boundary lows behave as the models expect from that area of the world, even at just 36hrs. They maybe right this time, and model agreement would help, but that doesn't always mean much.

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Icon dropping the trough right on top of us. Will be horrid Thurs/Fri is this happens

NOT if it falls as snow !!

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
On 24/01/2019 at 21:35, damianslaw said:

 

Its a weather forecasters headache this coming week - most difficult week to forecast so far this winter (mind its been an exceptionally easy winter to predict in the main, apart from the odd sudden short term development (Thursday trough feature, and splitting of low pressure today, only forecast 24 hrs out). Hence, expect lots of uncertainty and expect the unexpected.

From tomorrow much of the UK will be under cold uppers next 5-6 days at least and quite likely longer, but very fine lines and margins forecasting the type of precipitation that will fall, its intensity, where trough and frontal features track..

Tuesday promises snow for some - not more you can say. Wednesday could throw a sudden trough feature -bringing surprise snowfall, also could be a carbon copy of Wednesday just gone giving an ice day for some, Thursday a possible heavy snowfall event for some.

Lots going on, will need to take each day as it comes..

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted

Ref Tuesday’s system. Best to maintain a watching brief over the next 48 hours or you will won’t make it to February without giving yourself a coronary. Comment run to run, absolutely, but don’t take too seriously. It will change.

The tracking of this system is not going to be known until T+24 at best, probably T+6 and more probably less than that. Looks to me like RACY. Good luck nailing that down till after it’s gone by.

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst we have so many stating how much Thursday could be different come verification , we could be about to get pretty well a full set of ops with a pretty similar solution 

On the basis of the ICON alone?  None of the others have published output yet?!

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