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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Apologies, this is my first comment on netweather after following this excellent forum for many years. It is always very interesting to see how the computer models really struggle with scenarios away from the usual and how their accuracy is questionable more than  3 or 4 days out. But they are still good indicators of general trends. And the general trend is towards colder weather for the end of the month. How this manifests itself is in the hands of day to day synoptic. But after studying weather synoptics for some time I am fairly confident that a colder snap is on the way. The general synoptics suggest it, there is still the lingering impact of SSW. There maybe some global climate drivers that can negate these, but generally conditions for a colder period appear fairly positive.

 

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13 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

With Tues morning being my focus, Tues evening with the cold in place could be a nice dusting for the midlands south.

 

gfs-2-60.png

If overheads are favourable...ie-dews/bulbs etc..that screams..a possible pep up of precip..

And could leave some good surprises-in certain locations.

Edited by tight isobar

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A milder spell next weekend seems to be gathering support looks transient though with temps beginning to drop as we move into the final few days of Jan and into Feb

graphe_ens3_bjs8.thumb.gif.08732c8642707b3ad1ae74e847ecc474.gif

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8 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yeah weird it sais hidden on mine haha. God knows. 

Maybe you blocked yourself? You weren't annoying yourself were you?! 😂

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Monday night into Tuesday morning is now within the hi-res models.

nmmgif.thumb.gif.9e65fd3ec57e55a0c32d7008e306e21c.gif

Plenty of shower activity moving in from the WNW/NW after the frontal system has moved through.

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Second bite seems the form horse now.

I do agree with what an earlier poster mentioned, in that I'm more convinced that the second attempt will verify in some meaningful way. 

Anything after 4th of Feb is fine by me, as my son is due to be born today, and after last week's runs I had visions of sliding into the hospital sideways rather than driving.

Would be great to see a spell like '91 at around the same time, which remains my fondest memory of severe winter conditions. 

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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A very encouraging set via 6z..

(London ones)

We are certainly getting a tightning of cluster and belly drop..

Still looks to be going cold...into very cold 

 

MT8_London_ens (15).png

So we currently are sitting at 4 firm days before scatter starts. Your head follows the mean but things could switch at any moment for sure.

EDIT: That day 6 uptick could still get watered down.

Edited by Stuie W

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Expecting very consistent output going forward, just getting the finer details correct within the micro for that long wave pattern. The D10 GEFS show the Atlantic Ridge is omnipresent:

gens_panel_xmr4.png

That is why ECM members are also showing low spread.

The reason why this is showing little entropy is that we have sustained Azores High and the cut-off low that was a bit of a spoiler for the easterly now is our friend:

gfseu-0-192.thumb.png.7deec1c68dbc4ed22cd3b1443ea14302.png

It acts as a prop to beyond D10 allowing any warm uppers and HP systems to feed the High and push the ridge north. This "block" looks locked in and we wait to see if the strat to trop response can assist with the -AO aided by any Pacific wave pushing. The GEFS show variations within that small envelope but I can see why ECM has low clusters in the weeklies.

With the likely sinking of the upper cold to mid-latitude by late January the margins for it to snow will be negligible so with a good pattern this could be a great starting point, finally, for the Winter to move into overdrive.

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22 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yeah weird it sais hidden on mine haha. God knows. 

I think putting yourself on ignore may be taking it a bit too far...

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Well.. 

2A3DBF4C-93BF-4C50-BF3D-189A4924E328.thumb.png.e16dc4e43a4304edfa10365fd5a4f947.png

Extended cluster, just one 

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4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

So we currently are sitting at 4 firm days before scatter starts. Your head follows the mean but things could switch at any moment for sure.

EDIT: That day 6 uptick could still get watered down.

Running through various other supports...the colder options are readily growing..

Although as some have already flagged up..a 'Breif' -milder incursion looks form.

But its after that the real chances both grow...and gain !!!

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5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Expecting very consistent output going forward, just getting the finer details correct within the micro for that long wave pattern. The D10 GEFS show the Atlantic Ridge is omnipresent:

gens_panel_xmr4.png

That is why ECM members are also showing low spread.

The reason why this is showing little entropy is that we have sustained Azores High and the cut-off low that was a bit of a spoiler for the easterly now is our friend:

gfseu-0-192.thumb.png.7deec1c68dbc4ed22cd3b1443ea14302.png

It acts as a prop to beyond D10 allowing any warm uppers and HP systems to feed the High and push the ridge north. This "block" looks locked in and we wait to see if the strat to trop response can assist with the -AO aided by any Pacific wave pushing. The GEFS show variations within that small envelope but I can see why ECM has low clusters in the weeklies.

With the likely sinking of the upper cold to mid-latitude by late January the margins for it to snow will be negligible so with a good pattern this could be a great starting point, finally, for the Winter to move into overdrive.

...and here is -NAO albeit a couple of stragglers. Certainly not going to -4 like the AO but still negative.

nao.sprd2.gif

Edited by Stuie W

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25 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Why can't I post? 

You just did?

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24 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yeah weird it sais hidden on mine haha. God knows. 

May be you added yourself to your ignore list 

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Well that is just nuts 🥜. 100% agreement 👍

 

1 hour ago, AWD said:

How can you possibly have 100% agreement on an evolution 264 hours away, especially in the current atmospheric volatility we are experiencing?

In my experience, this means that there are either too many clusters to include (so the model picks a middle ground solution and basically is of no use whatsoever) or there really is one cluster.  At that range, it really cannot be the latter. 

Someone who looks through the members will confirm this.

note that every single gefs member has a diving trough post day 8 .......... it’s the clearest possible indicator that we are in a repeating pattern scenario. what precedes and follows the diving trough will dictate if it’s just a flash (like this week) or part of something more significant re getting widespread lowland snow cover.

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23 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I'm an amateur too! From what I can make out, these very clever people are saying the models look good from day 8+ so that's next weekend,with real cold and easterlies looking likely. This week looks cold too, but less so and nothing too disruptive.

Wicked hopefully these models will stick to it this time from now on 👍

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Think we’re take this failed easterly for this . Lovely run 🤞🏻

6F402DE2-DBA7-4B15-B622-355D3DE0D0D6.png

BD835DE9-18F2-458B-92E9-CE0F0DAA30CC.png

1ECF79EC-2E5A-4281-8A3E-CF9C952C20E5.png

5ECDCA11-1C77-4454-A18F-39690DAF411A.png

4C702672-20F8-4F5F-9E14-73F1C12706D7.png

DD6CBAF3-D6C4-462D-85E2-9698C01596A0.png

Cracking charts but again 2 weeks away not worth even getting excited about 😁

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I guess that the SSW in 2013, that took a while (3-4 weeks) to really affect the weather (March 2013), but when it did hit, we did know about it. So I personally think that goodies lie ahead, although I was hoping we would have had a cold spell by now.

Edited by Bruegelian

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The ENS support a very 1 directional outlook Nick?

FD94F962-AE61-43D7-8C52-DC2B01602966.thumb.gif.889e2e47952d6de11dc9a522a1a9490f.gif

 

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1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

Very very nice. *Should* get a decent northeasterly out of this....

image.thumb.png.b138adf36f758d5d16750bae8e12a994.png

Until it gets inside 4-5 days then there will start to be spoilers 

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Winter is not over in January, does anyone not remember Feb 86 a foot of snow in Edinburgh from the east sticks in my mind,,,,I still see a very snowy February coming up which is still a winter month normally the coldest too ⛄

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Interesting that more members are on here than Forecast model thread. I think the Mods have split the thread. I respect the rules but cold hunt and banter should be separate. I think members are confused as to were the main contribution from members is. Hunt for cold, you have to few the models so I don't get it. I understand that the Mods are doing there best but just find the new thread annoying. 

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