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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Just now, Ice Day said:

And what an odd shaped PV?

image.thumb.png.09c340e9b4bf6041e38cac5611306457.png

Never guess where the strongest section is.... que surprise.

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Strange:

40607446_gfsnh-0-168(2).thumb.png.fde1af3ec1c567f5bfb314c196b79733.pnggfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.cc85a9970d0b7ef55cf23033f8e6cd7c.png

Look how the PV has changed shape from the 12 z run!

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

And what an odd shaped PV?

image.thumb.png.09c340e9b4bf6041e38cac5611306457.png

Looks a bit excited to me... 😂

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1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

Looks a bit excited to me... 😂

Shape off things to come maybe , sorry Paul 😁

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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Chino, are you surprised that the recent ssw is still not bearing fruit in any model? It seems to be a winter of deep cold being around the corner. Only problem is the corner keeps moving

If you look at the NH profile then that doesn’t add up with the disturbed trop vortex. So the SSW is having an effect but not for us.....yet

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Certainly better than it’s 12z friend, not that it took much that was horrible all things considered. It’s a real mess though... wondering if there is actually any point looking at the models at the minute, it’s a s**tstorm

5C7F253E-E116-4A3A-929C-2FEF2C45601C.png

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3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And what an odd shaped PV?

image.thumb.png.09c340e9b4bf6041e38cac5611306457.png

High pressure nosing into the continent?

We will be in Bartlett territory on this run at this rate?!  😂

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Extended eps will look colder again on the London graph later 

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Nuts. The amount of inter run changes are just bananas. Like the polar vortex!

I'm taking a break for 2 days. Only looking at the charts in hi res for Monday/Tuesday. 

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3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

GFS being a D* as usual 😂

A D?  I was thinking C ..............

 

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Leaked express headline for tomorrow.

 

#sorrynotsorry

Cock.png

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gfs-0-198.png?18

What a terrible run! "sarcasm"

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Just now, evans1892 said:

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.

 

#sorrynotsorry

Cock.png

£250 for a baby? Rip off that.

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So below average, ECM not as awful as 00z but leads again down the line to a big PV displacement at end of the month.  The way next week looks it can’t be trusted....but its the preferred route and would lead to our pot of cold.

was there ever an easterly?  Clearly not.....this winter should ne called the t240 winter... 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

£250 for a baby? Rip off that.

I got five for nowt , I think 🤔

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Well, following Weathizard's post above, there is some interesting consistency between the ECM and GFS at 210.  Back to potential slider territory?

ECM image.thumb.png.0b6c257e3a6b0b59d8a6ab3da789a395.png GFS image.thumb.png.e1614c35c5bbcc8681b8677a23a0f23d.png

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Models all over the place, but almost all point towards a very mild turn in the weather next week.

Will be interesting to see what happens after. Will it be HP or wind and rain? 😂

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Meanwhile in a parallel universe, southern England prepares for an approaching snow storm🤪JE216-21_tql2.GIF

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Just now, edinburgh_1992 said:

Models all over the place, but almost all point towards a very mild turn in the weather next week.

Will be interesting to see what happens after. Will it be HP or wind and rain? 😂

What are you on about? Very mild?

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879187824_gfsnh-0-192(2).thumb.png.1925534f30be11da3a943306c909e8b3.png

Looking at the changes in the PV from the last run, it is far more disorganised and maybe we are seeing background signals finally hit the trop, possibly a quick response to a slow response? If yes, things could change fast.

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