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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Chino, are you surprised that the recent ssw is still not bearing fruit in any model? It seems to be a winter of deep cold being around the corner. Only problem is the corner keeps moving

If you look at the NH profile then that doesn’t add up with the disturbed trop vortex. So the SSW is having an effect but not for us.....yet

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Certainly better than it’s 12z friend, not that it took much that was horrible all things considered. It’s a real mess though... wondering if there is actually any point looking at the models at the minute, it’s a s**tstorm

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So below average, ECM not as awful as 00z but leads again down the line to a big PV displacement at end of the month.  The way next week looks it can’t be trusted....but its the preferred route and would lead to our pot of cold.

was there ever an easterly?  Clearly not.....this winter should ne called the t240 winter... 

 

BFTP

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879187824_gfsnh-0-192(2).thumb.png.1925534f30be11da3a943306c909e8b3.png

Looking at the changes in the PV from the last run, it is far more disorganised and maybe we are seeing background signals finally hit the trop, possibly a quick response to a slow response? If yes, things could change fast.

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