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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I know I dont really like the 06z however its fairly in Sync with the other models-

Interesting @186-192

Slight pressure rises south of Greenland mean the jet is being steered south...

Awsome run-

It's not bad at all, and an Arctic high has appeared at 192

image.thumb.png.e563908ea1e11127157816358852e5b3.png

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Put it this way if we get the deep low and it coming in at a better angle then we could be looking at a very serious snow situation next week!!think of this morning ecm run but every so slightly further south?

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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Left exit to be fair and converging at least somewhat. Though yes, I would tend to back a UKMO/Euro blend for strength as the GFS and GEM enjoy blowing lows up. That would suggest say 975mb right now, probably weaker as we get closer.

Yeah, I can definitely something in the 970s for sure, even high end 960s. I'm not convinced its going 955mbs like the ECM 00z, and even less than some of the ensembles going down to 949mbs.

Broadly with little lows forming in the subtropics they tend to be quite poorly forecasted (Having watched numerous ones this hurricane season, the models weren't the best) and that in itself has to for now put a big question mark on it. Of course it could well be right and I'll be finding my rowing boat and umbrella!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Put it this way if we get the deep low and it coming in at a better angle then we could be looking at a very serious snow situation next week!!think of this morning ecm run but every so slightly further south?

I hope so, shaky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!If the low doesn't deepen quite so much, and travels along a more southerly track, we could be in for a real treat!!!!!Shame those 'oop norf' would have to miss-out a bit!!!!!!!!!!??

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah, I can definitely something in the 970s for sure, even high end 960s. I'm not convinced its going 955mbs like the ECM 00z, and even less than some of the ensembles going down to 949mbs.

Broadly with little lows forming in the subtropics they tend to be quite poorly forecasted (Having watched numerous ones this hurricane season, the models weren't the best) and that in itself has to for now put a big question mark on it. Of course it could well be right and I'll be finding my rowing boat and umbrella!

Yes, having also watched the models on hurricanes they seemed really poor with them this year. Often reeeaaally overdoing it or reeeaaally underdoing it in terms of pressure. Maybe it’s a similar scenario here just for a winter storm rather than summer.

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25 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Looks like us in the North West could be in the prime position. That’s if the Irish Sea plays nicely ?

Agree on current models , Our area will be buried . I tend to agree with other members though, The Low at the end of the week will likely correct South . Im concentrating on Tuesday as the Snow signal has been persistent for nearly a week.

 

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Snow could be coming to a lamp post near you according to the Gfs 6z operational..best week of this winter so far in terms of cold and snow potential!!??:cold-emoji: 

things must be looking good when a page fills up every 3 minutes!:crazy:

I hope you're right Frosty. I proper love your upbeat posts when the snow is due but I won't be really happy until the first flake falls lol 

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3 minutes ago, TomW said:

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfsnh-0-228.png?6

Don't hate on me for posting FI charts but in terms of a trend setter please let this one be the start of one!

Indeed, a very encouraging NH profile is about to show itself in FI.  Something to keep an eye on.

image.thumb.png.621f135ca0501b26eb4e7bfb250a6daf.png

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13 minutes ago, shaky said:

Put it this way if we get the deep low and it coming in at a better angle then we could be looking at a very serious snow situation next week!!think of this morning ecm run but every so slightly further south?

If it does end up less deep, then presumably it would be more likely to take a more southerly track. Probably end up too far south knowing our luck!

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GFS para still giving a good snow event for the south unlike the op. Looks similar to the UKMO at 78hrs.

Still as I said earlier, the models have struggled with systems de eloping on frontal boundaries down in the sub-tropics, so any solution is to be taken with a huge pinch of salt still.

Anyway ensembles will be out shortly for the important time period, so lets see where they go!

Edited by kold weather
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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If it does end up less deep, then presumably it would be more likely to take a more southerly track. Probably end up too far south knowing our luck!

Yup it would which would mean far south of england gets the action!!anyway gfs para deeper low to the southwest and further north at just 78 hours!!could be delicious for central southern england!

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Just now, kold weather said:

GFS para still giving a good snow event for the south unlike the op. Looks similar to the UKMO at 78hrs.

Still as I said earlier, the models have struggled with systems de eloping on frontal boundaries down in the sub-tropics, so any solution is to be taken with a huge pinch of salt still.

Yes was just posting this

Both AM GFS trended North into the channel-

2BABC39B-8C26-43DF-84B7-0E725DB1814B.thumb.png.24efe1fd7a10c1661ef81b25acd4ccd4.png

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ICON/UKMO/GFSP go for more of a channel low/North France feature that would bring snowfall to many Southern parts on Tuesday. 

ECM further South taking it more through Central France which would probably be a little too far South

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

A lot of annoying and unhelpful imbyism.

I think your in a cracking place by the way, should be far enough south that unless it really shifts south you'll get something, but far enough north that you'd have tp be unlucky for the low to pump that much mild air up.

Can't blame people for being a little more focused on their area, though it doesn't help people who are new for sure!

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think your in a cracking place by the way, should be far enough south that unless it really shifts south you'll get something, but far enough north that you'd have tp be unlucky for the low to pump that much mild air up.

Can't blame people for being a little more focused on their area, though it doesn't help people who are new for sure!

Indeed, and possibly for snow showers from a Cheshire Gap streamer, but I don’t want to sound too biased towards my own area after my previous comment ?

Also a bit confusing for those in central areas when people talk about the north and/or the south, but then it’s not really possible to predict the northern or southern extent of anything in this setup at this range and central parts will always be the ‘battleground’ and area of highest uncertainty I guess.

Edited by MattStoke
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10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think your in a cracking place by the way, should be far enough south that unless it really shifts south you'll get something, but far enough north that you'd have tp be unlucky for the low to pump that much mild air up.

Can't blame people for being a little more focused on their area, though it doesn't help people who are new for sure!

Of course ppl will be more interested in their own areas, but either keep that to the regional thread or state that a comment regress to a specific area.  Too many comments yesterday said things like much better run, or, might in the right direction, when they clearly represented downgrades for many areas.

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GFS mean @84 has tilted the main Greenland low more NW > SE than the 00z 90 mean -

Indicating the track will be more to the west- which is a very good sign...

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