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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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You will find that peoples reactions to each run from now on will likely be very regional based in a way. So for example for lots of the south, its a dreadful and wet run (thought the SE does sneak into the snow at first) whilst if your from the Midlands, its nice and snowy again.

I would be surprised regardless if the low gets anywhere near 960mbs, the models are coming into agreement but that's a pretty exceptional depth for a system in this sort of position and development cycle with various phasing situations happening.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Am I invisible ????

i believe that fax is incorrect as it has identical placement of all pressure centres as per the T96 from last night 

We've all done it. Copy and paste error?

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

You will find that peoples reactions to each run from now on will likely be very regional based in a way. So for example for lots of the south, its a dreadful and wet run (thought the SE does sneak into the snow at first) whilst if your from the Midlands, its nice and snowy again.

I would be surprised regardless if the low gets anywhere near 960mbs, the models are coming into agreement but that's a pretty exceptional depth for a system in this sort of position and development cycle with various phasing situations happening.

That low is spawned from the depths of the low uppers in the base of the n American vortex KW ....I wouldn’t be surprised what it does ....the uppers where it develops are more than exceptional for that area so if it develops further in an exceptional fashion then I’d say it was being consistent ! 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Am I invisible ????

i believe that fax is incorrect as it has identical placement of all pressure centres as per the T96 from last night 

Yep thats the old one-

The 06z is the same trend as 00z

Big snow event end of week -then it slides away SE-

Penetration how far NE it gets is the key...

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Am I invisible ????

i believe that fax is incorrect as it has identical placement of all pressure centres as per the T96 from last night 

Not the same though because the fronts are in different locations, the HP over /Greenland is slightly different (1020 vs 1022).

I think itds accurate, just exceptionally close to the previous version, take a look over the Arctic, there is really subtle differences!

PS, look at Greenland just above the 1016mbs isotherm, the 1014mbs isothgemr is a touch further south in one of them.

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Just now, Had Worse said:

We've all done it. Copy and paste error?

That’s not what I meant .......the T84 fax is dodgy .... I posted on the previous page ........so it was a surprise to see it posted so soon! 

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

You will find that peoples reactions to each run from now on will likely be very regional based in a way. So for example for lots of the south, its a dreadful and wet run (thought the SE does sneak into the snow at first) whilst if your from the Midlands, its nice and snowy again.

I would be surprised regardless if the low gets anywhere near 960mbs, the models are coming into agreement but that's a pretty exceptional depth for a system in this sort of position and development cycle with various phasing situations happening.

Agreed, expect lots of toy throwing in here soon ? Often these systems trend south, the system at day 4 or so has kept trending south and weakened, pretty much to the point that its only clipping the south coast. 

All I would say to people is nothing will be nailed down with this until probably 24-48 hours before.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Am I invisible ????

i believe that fax is incorrect as it has identical placement of all pressure centres as per the T96 from last night 

Lol,i should have scrolled further down the page instead of just looking at the time-stamps.?

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Not the same though because the fronts are in different locations, the HP over /Greenland is slightly different (1020 vs 1022).

I think itds accurate, just exceptionally close to the previous version, take a look over the Arctic, there is really subtle differences!

Not having it kold ..... it just doesn’t happen like that ...from day 4 to 3.5, things change far more than that ....they always have done ....must be a kid on work experience 

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That low is spawned from the depths of the low uppers in the base of the n American vortex KW ....I wouldn’t be surprised what it does ....the uppers where it develops are more than exceptional for that area so if it develops further in an exceptional fashion then I’d say it was being consistent ! 

Maybe, but the jet isn't exactly raging looking at it, its not the sort of set-up I'd thought would be that condusive for rapid intensification. Then again most of the models are showing it so hard to deny the plausablity of it.

As stated before, some of the runs on the ensembles are blowing this low up, but some still have some good snowfall even for the south.

BA- it does look wrong, I agree! Just saying its not a simple copy + paste as there are differences.

Maybe someone has accidently used 102hrs from yesterday and so that's why its nearly identical but with a few difference, not sure?

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Just now, kold weather said:

Maybe, but the jet isn't exactly raging looking at it, its not the sort of set-up I'd thought would be that condusive for rapid intensification. Then again most of the models are showing it so hard to deny the plausablity of it.

As stated before, some of the runs on the ensembles are blowing this low up, but some still have some good snowfall even for the south.

Left exit to be fair and converging at least somewhat. Though yes, I would tend to back a UKMO/Euro blend for strength as the GFS and GEM enjoy blowing lows up. That would suggest say 975mb right now, probably weaker as we get closer.

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24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Compare it to the T96 knocks ..........of course it could be that this is the first day 3.5 fax in twenty years of looking at them where all the pressure centres are predicted to be in the same place as they were 12 hours earlier ..........but I doubt it .........

Ah I'm with you. Mind it's not a bad fit with the ecm this morning.

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