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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

What differences are you seeing?

It looks very similar to the 00z up to 102.

In fact it looks a little better to me.

Edited by Drifter
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Just now, Drifter said:

What differences are you seeing?

It looks very similar to the 00z up to 102.

It’s certainly not a million miles away, we just really don’t want the low to deepen any further and as you could see it’s at least 5mb deeper this run which will lead to consequences later on.

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26 minutes ago, knocker said:

What do you mean by dodgy blue?

Compare it to the T96 knocks ..........of course it could be that this is the first day 3.5 fax in twenty years of looking at them where all the pressure centres are predicted to be in the same place as they were 12 hours earlier ..........but I doubt it .........

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

It's a much better run for the North. South is very marginal. 

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I'm still not convinced this system is going to be getting quite as strong as the models are expecting, sub 965mbs in this type of set-up with complex lows is somewhat on the unusual side. Although its not as extreme as the 00z ECM and whilst very low, its within the range of what is possible

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18 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS op gives a chance for back edge snow as the front slips south east during Sunday morning:

27-779UK.thumb.gif.7775cda985a6e44361d24ca28a6c37d1.gif24-515UK.thumb.gif.c4b9138dc30da71f134dd447e6f43b5e.gif27-7UK.thumb.gif.7e80d367aeb6c9ca41ef70df821ad30b.gif

Interesting it's been suggesting similar for a while. Do any of the other Hi Res precip models agree?

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Regardless of what the models show, lows not managing to phase together is far more common in reality - something to keep in mind. Essentially the likes of the ECM 00z are advertising a very rare event that would be special but not for the right reasons down south unless you enjoy wet and windy conditions.

I’ll remain sceptical if the deep single low outcomes until they’re within 48 hours range.

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1 minute ago, Singularity said:

Regardless of what the models show, lows not managing to phase together is far more common in reality - something to keep in mind. Essentially the likes of the ECM 00z are advertising a very rare event that would be special but not for the right reasons down south unless you enjoy wet and windy conditions.

I’ll remain sceptical if the deep single low outcomes until they’re within 48 hours range.

Yeah that e/CM is pretty extreme, some ECM ensembles are even MORE extreme then that as well! some would be a legitimate damaging storm through wind.

Anyway the GFS looking very good for the Midlands north. For the south, we could do with it being a touch further SE and also quite a lot weaker.

We will see later on what the ensembles are saying this time round, each run has been subtly different.

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