Cold hunt - models and chat

[Surrey 7,286]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

In balance the GFSP and the GEM look very similar to the ECM pressure and placement wise, so it's not on its own for weds-thurs at all. 

GFS ensembles suggests just about anything is possible still...

But its over 5 days away?

[Jackski4 885]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

In balance the GFSP and the GEM look very similar to the ECM pressure and placement wise, so it's not on its own for weds-thurs at all. 

GFS ensembles suggests just about anything is possible still...

Don't think we'll truly know until Monday evening honestly. I just said what I said because I didn't want the whole mood turning sour after one run given that we've had great showings all night.

[kold weather 12,082]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

But its over 5 days away?

Yeah but just for balance as people were saying it was on its own when infact there is support for it.

I think I wouldn't mind a more northwards low if the previous system gave something to the south side on Tuesday but it didn't even do that! Just rain...

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[IDO 8,473]

The trigger low according to the GEFS:

T120>>>

A cluster supporting the op, another cluster closer to the ECM take and other members offering from good to bad solutions!

I think from experience this is rarely resolved till around T72 and although we are honing in on possible scenarios, the two main outcomes make a big difference to the sharpening of the trough and longevity of cold, for the south especially. We then have a lull in proceedings upstream, from around D8-D12, with a flattening of the NH profile, before we see signs of further forcing at mid-latitudes post that. 

[Penicuikblizzard 2,874]

36 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Was just about to say the same the ECM looks very on its own...

Why are people ALWAYS trying to pick the negatives out of things. We got enough negativity in this world! 

Maybe the ECM has spotted a trend,,and the rest will fall into line as the day goes on 

[Surrey 7,286]

2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Maybe the ECM has spotted a trend,,and the rest will fall into line as the day goes on 

It might have.. So what if they do? 

[Penicuikblizzard 2,874]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

It might have.. So what if they do? 

I’m just saying you cannot discount any model 

[Surrey 7,286]

Just now, Penicuikblizzard said:

I’m just saying you cannot discount any model 

Go back read my comments 

[kold weather 12,082]

18 minutes ago, IDO said:

The trigger low according to the GEFS:

T120>>>

A cluster supporting the op, another cluster closer to the ECM take and other members offering from good to bad solutions!

I think from experience this is rarely resolved till around T72 and although we are honing in on possible scenarios, the two main outcomes make a big difference to the sharpening of the trough and longevity of cold, for the south especially. We then have a lull in proceedings upstream, from around D8-D12, with a flattening of the NH profile, before we see signs of further forcing at mid-latitudes post that. 

Oh yeah this still has a ways to run before we can have any confidence, far too many options out there to have any real confidence in any solution.

IMO, the deep low solution is being somewhat overdone on some of these models, not to say it can't happen like that, but that requires the perfect mix (especially ECM 956mbs low!) and often things don't quite develop as perfectly as the models expect this far out. Very complex forecast this one!

The way it handles Tuesday is also slightly baffling me. It literally has nothing or than the showers coming in from the NW...even the more conservative GFS ensembles that don't have much surface reflection at least have a decent trough feature over the SE...very odd!

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[Jackski4 885]

So is it time to stare at a wall again until the 6z?

 

Very much hoping ECM has not picked up a trend. ICON was the one who started the trend of no easterlies this week, I think we should be taking more note of ICON to be fair. It's been extremely consistent in amongst all these changes from other "Higher regarded" models. 

[Bob G 147]

Looking good for some snow in south central areas Tuesday into Wednesday

[mulzy 4,130]

The EPS has slightly colder uppers in the day 5-7 range vs. last night. 

[Jackski4 885]

On another note, the PARA has also been very consistent. I'm relatively new to model watching and I understand that the PARA has maybe not lived up to most people's expectations thus far, but it has been signifying snow and cold for the foreseeable for the last 4/5 days. Maybe it's PARA's time to shine?

[ICE COLD 11,585]

• Woke up 

• Read forum

• ICON/UKMO/GFS all looking great ? 

•Get really excited 

• Carry on reading forum 

• Then see ECM ?

• Then not so excited ?

Getting agreement across all models this winter has been non existent. Lol 

[Jackski4 885]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

• Woke up 

• Read forum

• ICON/UKMO/GFS all looking great ? 

•Get really excited 

• Carry on reading forum 

• Then see ECM ?

• Then not so excited ?

Getting agreement across all models this winter has been non existent. Lol 

WE have agreement across 3 models, it's a good starting point!?

[kold weather 12,082]

Slightly less support for Tuesday snow in the south from the ECM ensembles, though 60% still have something. Probably 25-30% still have something noteworthy like the UKMO. Not yet seen what they are showing for Wednesday onward. Definitely the least keen model suite though for Tuesday, GFS ensembles in contrast have about 80% showing snow for the south of Tuesday, probably 50% are disruptive.

I think instead the GFS op and ECM suite are putting more energy into a small LP coming into Scotland at the same time, whilst the ICON and UKMO and most of the GFS ensembles are focusing further south. Very complex!

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[Jayfromcardiff 2,333]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Slightly less support for Tuesday snow in the south from the ECM ensembles, though 60% still have something. Probably 25-30% still have something noteworthy like the UKMO. Not yet seen what they are showing for Wednesday onward. Definitely the least keen model suite though for Tuesday, GFS ensembles in contrast have about 80% showing snow for the south of Tuesday, probably 50% are disruptive.

Not sure who the Met Office are following because their forecast text mentions no snow just wintry showers.

[snowice 1,898]

11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

• Woke up 

• Read forum

• ICON/UKMO/GFS all looking great ? 

•Get really excited 

• Carry on reading forum 

• Then see ECM ?

• Then not so excited ?

Getting agreement across all models this winter has been non existent. Lol 

If the ICON is on board, that's a good start it was the first one to say No to The easterly last week. FV3, ukmo good as well all to play for?

[Tim Bland 13,982]

GFSp has patches of 25cm Dow depths for the far south and 20cm + for higher ground of Wales and Scotland by mid week.

GFSp is starting to be more consistent both short and long term so could be a good sign 

[Weathizard 4,915]

A good morning of output for once! If the trend continues of just lately with things improving throughout the day we’ll be in Narnia by tonight ? 

Discount the ECM at your peril though, the one model to not be on board I worry about most is the EC, it’s the king for a reason! 

[Tim Bland 13,982]

UKMO looks good for Tues night. Snow could reach from south coast to midlands ...

Edited January 26, 2019 by Tim Bland

[Radiating Dendrite 3,704]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp has patches of 25cm Dow depths for the far south and 20cm + for higher ground of Wales and Scotland by mid week.

GFSp is starting to be more consistent both short and long term so could be a good sign 

Bank, bank, bank, bank, bank, Halifax, HSBC, Metro, TSB, Lloyds, Santander, bank!!!

[kold weather 12,082]

ECM ensembles broadly still going for a deep low, some ate really going over the top though now, a few going as low as 950mbs!

Nearly all are around the 960-970mbs mark that I can see. Ib contrast GFS ensembles aren't nearly as strong.

However, definitely a trend back to deeper low this morning again and the deeper it goes the less leeway we have. Still requires PERFECT timing for it to go as deep as 950-960mbs though and in a set-up this complex, I wouldn't be taking that to the bank until probably 48hrs out.

 

[s4lancia 10,123]

All round, the a very good 00Zs suite. Clearly the fly in the ointment is the EC OP but plenty of models go against it. The ECM most certainly can’t be discounted though.

Whilst the 12Zs won’t in any way be the final word, it will be very interesting nevertheless to see if the othe models move to the EC or the other way around. Great to have the UKMO on board at this stage though.

[nick sussex 64,037]

Still no resolution on the low .

The angle of attack though is better across the models but it’s how it phases with the troughing that’s still up in the air.

There have been a lot of changes since yesterdays 12 hrs runs so I wouldn’t put much faith in any solution until there’s agreement and that’s within day 4.